Wkly Futures Market Summary For 7.14.2025

SOYBEANS

A lower start for beans overnight, but prices are rebounding this morning on bargain buying after November futures dropped below $10.00. Friday’s USDA report held no surprises, and favorable weather quickly overshadowed the report. The USDA acknowledged the trade and tariff concerns by lowering new crop exports by 70 million bushels. The USDA also acknowledged the increased potential for bean oil use in biodiesel, raising bean oil’s share to 26.5%, up 11.5% from May, while lowering exports.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Last week, US soymeal prices turned higher on Thursday, forming a potential technical reversal higher. However, Friday’s weak close negated the bullish signal, and the market is starting lower this week. The July USDA supply and demand report held no major surprises for soybeans. Soymeal balance sheet revisions included a major increase in meal production due to a larger crush estimate. On the demand side, domestic use and exports combined were increased by an equal amount, resulting in unchanged soymeal ending stocks.

CORN

Prices rebounded from weakness overnight following a very disappointing market reaction to the USDA’s mildly friendly supply/demand report on Friday. New crop ending stocks were lowered more than expected, as were world stocks, but favorable weather trends were too much of a headwind for the market to rally. Traders are clearly anticipating a higher corn yield reading in the August report, and with beneficial precipitation headed for the central corn belt again this week, it is becoming more of a certainty that yields will outperform.

WHEAT

The market is starting stronger this morning following Friday’s report. The USDA offered mixed data in Friday’s report, raising the yield by 1 bushel per acre and increasing new crop exports, but it was no real surprise that would shake the market out of the sideways price action seen lately. The yield bump is interesting since HRS conditions are well below average. The Northern Plains experienced mostly dry conditions over the weekend, with only scattered shower potential expected this week. But, all in all, the report confirmed that wheat lacks a compelling bull story at this time.

CATTLE

A very strong close last week is likely to lead to a firm start this morning, driven by residual bullishness from President Trump’s threats of a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef imports and the strong cash cattle trade once again. Brazil has accounted for 20% of total US beef imports so far in 2025. Trade negotiations are ongoing among several countries to meet the August 1st deadline.

HOGS

It’s nearly impossible to keep up with the tariff and trade news and the potential impact on prices, but traders seem to be worried about demand as the selloff continued on Friday. The downside correction may have more to run following the lowest close on August since late May. First retracement support is still a few dollars lower on August.

MILK CLASS III

August Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly loss after falling to a 2 1/2-week low on Friday. The USDA reported that milk production is steadily decreasing nationwide, as higher temperatures and humidity are negatively impacting cow comfort.

ENERGIES

September Crude Oil extended yesterday’s lower move overnight but was back near unchanged this morning. The bulls were disappointed yesterday when Trump’s threatened sanctions against Russian oil over the Ukraine war included a 50-day deadline, and the market backed off after trading to its highest level since June 23 earlier in the session. Ahead of the announcement there was talk that a more draconian threat of sanctions was in the works. Trump also announced new weapons for Ukraine and had said on Saturday he that he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico starting August 1, which may undercut solidarity with NATO over the Russia issue. However, the US has also committed to send more arms to Ukraine, which might contribute to heightened anxiety and support a bullish posture towards the crude complex. Reuters reports that China’s crude oil throughput increased to 62.24 million metric tons (roughly 15.15 million barrels per day) in June, up 8.8% from May and 8.5% a year ago, based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

September Natural Gas was lower overnight, but it held most of the gains it garnered yesterday after the weather forecast turned hotter for next week. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show above normal temperatures dominating over the lower 48 US states, with the exception of some below temps normal along the California coast and in the northern Rockies. For the storage report this week, the early Reuters poll has an range of expectation calling for a net injection of 38 to 52 bcf last week.

DOLLAR INDEX

The USD index is edging out some gains following a volatile reaction to Tuesday’s inflation data, which saw prices increase across most sectors. The reading largely reinforces the Fed’s expectations that prices would rise later in the summer as the effects of tariffs make their way into the economy.

COCOA

On the whole, West Africa is seeing good growing weather. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters said rainfall was below average last week in most of the nation’s main cocoa-growing regions, but adequate soil moisture continued to support strong flowering on plantations. They expect a strong main crop harvest, but they cautioned that weather in August and September will be critical. The main worries are overcast skies, insufficient sunshine, or excessive rain, which could trigger disease and damage yields. There were reports last week that excessive rains in June had damaged flowers and small pods, which caused some analysts to drop their forecasts for the upcoming crop, but more complete assessments should come in August and September.

COFFEE

September Coffee is lower this morning after extending yesterday’s rally overnight to reach its highest level since June 30. Last week, the nearby contract fell to the 0.382 retracement of the rally from the 2001 low to the all-time high from February, and it subsequently bounced off that level, indicating the market has achieved a downside objective, of sorts. Safras & Mercado reported that Brazilian coffee producers had sold 31% of their `2025/26 coffee crop as of July 9 versus a five-year average of 38% for the period. World Weather Service sees little chance of threatening cold for Brazil’s coffee during the next ten days. Temperatures will be a little warmer than usual, and precipitation should mostly be confined to areas near the coast. The dry weather inland should be good for harvest.

COTTON

December Cotton was higher overnight as the market extended yesterdays’ recovery. The US crop is in good shape, Thursday’s US supply/demand reports had a larger than expected increase in US production, and the outlook for US exports is in flux, but cotton prices have avoided a steep selloff. The Crop Progress report yesterday showed 54% of the US crop was rated good/excellent, up from 52% the previous week, 45% a year ago, and above the five-year average for this date at 46%.

SUGAR

October Sugar was higher overnight and managed to take back some of yesterday’s losses. Yesterday’s UNICA report was viewed as bullish, and the market closed lower on the day after trading to its highest level since June 30 in anticipation, as the trade apparently bought the rumor. The report showed Brazilian center-south cane crush and sugar production for the second half of June both coming in below trade expectations. Sugar production totaled 2.845 million metric tons, up from 2.450 million for the first half of the month but down from 3.269 million a year ago and below the average trade expectation from an S&P Global survey calling for 2.95 million.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold futures are lower, following Tuesday’s inflation data, which saw prices increase across most sectors. The reading largely reinforces the Fed’s expectations that prices would rise later in the summer as the effects of tariffs make their way into the economy.

Silver futures are lower, following moves in gold as Tuesday’s inflation print signals that interest rate cuts may be harder to come by from the Fed.

Copper prices fell in reaction to CPI inflation data. Copper prices were little changed on US and foreign exchanges following China’s release of GDP data that showed GDP growth met forecasts, hinting that traders were more focused on CPI inflation data.

EQUITIES

Stock index futures are higher, with the Dow lagging in negative territory, getting a boost from a CPI inflation reading that saw prices rise in line with expectations. CPI inflation rose 0.3% in June while ticking higher to 2.6% on an annualized basis. The Nasdaq got a boost early in the morning after Nvidia said it plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China after securing Washington’s assurances that shipments would get approved.

INTEREST RATES

Futures are higher across the curve as CPI inflation in June came in line with expectations, rising 0.3% in June after rising 0.1% in May. Inflation ticked up to 2.7% on an annualized basis. Core CPI inflation rose 0.2% in June, below expectations of a 0.3% rise, while core prices ticked higher from 2.8% to 2.9% on an annualized basis. Shelter/housing inflation rose 0.2% and was the primary factor in the increase in inflation.

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