Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly higher. Midwest temps are dissipating with showers in upper Midwest. US stocks are higher. USD is lower and lowest level since Feb, 2022. Crude is $63. Gold is higher but below 3,400. Trump turned positive to NATO. Trump unhappy Fed Chairman not lowering rates.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.13. Overnight low was 10.08. Trade below 10.00 is near with prolonged period of 9.00 futures due to higher World supply. Dalian soybean, soymeal were lower. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. Trade est US June 1 soybean stocks near 974 mil bu vs 970 ly. Trade est US soybean acres at 83.5 mil vs March 83.5. China buying Brazil soybeans remains quiet. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 539 last week. Soymeal sales are est at 100-400 mt vs 160 last week.
CORN
CU is near 4.06 and new lows. Overnight low was 4.02. Non-threatening US summer weather could drop CZ closer to 3.95. Dalian corn was higher. Trade est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,625 mil bu vs 4,997 ly. Trade est US corn acres at 95.4 mil vs March 95.3. There has been some talk Brazil corn crop could be as high as 150 mmt. There are also est that Aug-Dec Brazil exports could test 2023 total near 40 mmt. Weekly US ethanol production was up 3.6 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 4.2 pct vs ly. Crushers used 109 mil bu last week vs 95 needed to reach USDA goal of 5,500 mil bu. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 500-1,200 mt vs 903 last week.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.45. KWU is near 5.40. MWEU is near 6.28. Futures are retesting recent lows with spreads in carries. Trade est US June 1 wheat stocks near 836 mil bu vs 696 ly. Trade est US wheat acres at 45.4 mil vs March 45.4. Wheat futures dropped due to lower Black Sea prices and approaching north hemisphere harvest. Matif wheat futures are lower and Sep-Dec spread is widening. US HRW fob basis is down to 95 vs 135 ly. SRW down to 55. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-600 mt vs 427 last week.
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