USDA Report Day. Reality?

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

 

USDA report day. Reality? Grains are lower. No confirmation of Trump tweet on China buying US soybeans. US stocks are higher. US CPI data today. USD is unch. Crude is unch. Gold is unch. Trump will meet Putin on Friday in Alaska. Israel close to taking over Gaza. Trade est Fed to lower rates in 2025.

 

 

SOYBEANS

SX is near 9.98. US 2 week Midwest forecast is warm with normal rain. US Delta is warm and dry. No conformation of China buying US soybeans. Trump did delay increase in China tariff rates 90 days. Trade est US 2025 soybean crop at 4,365 mil bu vs USDA July est of 4,335, 25/26 soybean carryout at 439 mil bu vs USDA July 310. China has bought 54 cargoes of Brazil soybean over last 2 weeks. USDA rated the US soybean crop 68 pct G/E down 1 from last week. Best crop is IA. Declines were in IL,ND and TN. One crop analyst also est best crop in IA. Lowest in MI,OH and IL. US soybean exports are near 48.3 mmt vs 43.3 Last year. USDA goal is 50.7 mmt vs 46.1 ly.

 

CORN

CZ is near 4.03. CZ support 4.00, resistance 4.10. Large US crop could drop CZ to 3.50. Trade est US 2025 corn crop at 15,979 mil bu vs USDA July est of 15,705, US 2025/26 corn carryout at 1,902 mil bu vs USDA July 1,660. A 186 US corn yield could increase US 25/26 carryout to 2,300-2,500 mil bu. US 2 week Midwest forecast is warm with normal rain. USDA rated the US corn crop 72 pct G/E down 1 from last week. Best crop is IA. Declines were in IL,ND,NE and OH. One crop analyst est best crop in IA. Lowest in MI,OH and IL. US corn exports are near 63.1 mmt vs 48.9 Last year. USDA goal is 69.8 mmt vs 57.2 ly

 

WHEAT

WZ is near 5.30. KWZ is near 5.32. MWZ is near 5.95. New trade deal with Asian wheat buyers is helping demand for US wheat especially Indonesia. Nigeria switched 3 HRW cargoes to US from Russia due to Russia quality issues. Trade est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,920 mil bu vs USDA July est of 1,929, US 2025/26 wheat carryout at 882 mil bu vs USDA July 890. USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 49 pct G/E up 1 from last week, harvest 16 pct. US wheat exports are near 4.3 mmt vs 4.2 Last year. USDA goal is 23.1 mmt vs 22.4 ly.

 

 

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