USDA Increased US Soybean Crop Ratings

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed. Bank earnings key. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Trump 50 day delay of sanctions on Russia oil calms supply fears. Talk of sanctions on Russia oil puts focus on buyers China and India. Gold is higher. EU talking $84 billion retaliation against US import goods including auto parts, machinery, medical services, wine, beef, fruit and vegetables.

SOYBEANS 

SU is near 9.94. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. China May soybean imports were a record 12.26 mmt for the month of May. World vegoil buying is shifting to palmoil. USDA increased US soybean crop rating to 70 G/E. One crop scout increased his US soybean yield 1 bpa to 52.5 with max potential 54.0. Top states incl IA,NE,MN,WI and MO. Bottom states incl IL.IN,MI,OH,ND and SD. US soybean exports are up 10 pct vs ly and USDA up 6. NOPA June soybean crush is est at 185 mil bu, up 10 mil bu vs ly. Soyoil stocks are est at 1,374 mil lbs.

CORN 

CU is near 3.99. Some link rally in corn futures due to liquidation of long wheat and short corn spreads. Dalian corn futures were higher. USDA left US corn crop rating to 74 G/E but still up 6 pct vs ly. One crop scout increased his US corn yield 2 bpa to 182 with max potential 186.0. Top states incl IA,NE,MN,WI and MO. Bottom states incl IL.IN,MI,OH,and ND. US corn exports are up 29 pct vs ly and USDA up 22. Sep-Dec futures corn spread widened out to -18. Same crop scout increased his est of Brazil corn crop 2 mmt to 134.

WHEAT 

WU is near 5.41. KWU is near 5.23. MWU is near 6.04. MWU dropped due to increase rans in US spring wheat area.  MWU is near 6 week low. USDA est US winter wheat harvest at 63 pct done. USDA rated US spring wheat crop 54 pct G/E vs 50 last week and 77 ly. US wheat exports are down 3 pct vs ly and USDA up 17. There is talk Russia wheat yields are disappointing as harvest advances. EU cash wheat prices were firmer on slow farmer selling and some short covering. Matif futures have record open interest. Some commercials have rolled positions. Managed funds have record short.

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