US Domestic Basis is Firm

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are higher. US stocks are mixed. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Trump 50 day delay of sanctions on Russia oil calms supply fears. Talk of sanctions on Russia oil puts focus on buyers China and India. Gold is higher. EU talking $84 billion retaliation against US import goods including auto parts, machinery, medical services, wine, beef, fruit and vegetables.

SOYBEANS 

SU is near 9.95. Dalian soybean, soymeal and palmoil were lower. Soyoil futures were higher. World vegoil buying is shifting to palmoil. NOPA June soybean crush is est at 185 mil bu, up 10 mil bu vs ly. Soyoil stocks are est at 1,366 mil lbs. Brazil farmer increased new crop cash selling weighing on prices. Argentina farmer also increased cash sales. SX found support near 10.00. SX could test midpoint of 2025 range near 10.20 on talk of drier Delta and south ECB and warmer weather. Trade expects SX to eventually trade below 10.00 due to higher supply. Soyoil should continue to gain vs soymeal. Soyoil pct of crush near 50 pct. Crush margins near season highs.

CORN 

CU is near 4.06. Dalian corn futures were lower. Sep-Dec futures corn spread widened out to -20. US domestic basis is firm on slow farmer selling and tighter 24/25 supply vs demand. Both crushers and exporters are bidding for corn. One crop scout increased his est of Brazil corn crop 2 mmt to 134. Brazil corn harvest behind last year. Record crop should reduce US 25/26 corn exports. Higher US Crop and lower exports could increase carryout over 2,000 mil bu which should eventually trade futures below 3,80.

WHEAT 

WU is near 5.37. KWU is near 5.23. Dry and warm US plains weather should complete HRW harvest with yields reported better than expected. MWU is near 6.03. MWU dropped due to increase rains in US spring wheat area.  MWU is near 6 week low. Demand for US SRW and HRW exports remain slow. There is talk Russia wheat yields are disappointing as harvest advances. Matif wheat futures were higher on lower Euro. EU inflation was higher than expected. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said it would cut funding that have supported thousands of small- and mid-sized farm and food businesses.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.