Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Midwest temps are dissipating with showers in upper Midwest. US stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is higher and near $64. Gold is lower. Both US and China announced a new trade deal. The deal does not include US Ag products.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.12. Trade below 10.00 is near with prolonged period of 9.00 futures due to higher World supply. Dalian soybean, soymeal were lower. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. Trade est US June 1 soybean stocks near 974 mil bu vs 970 ly. Trade est US soybean acres at 83.5 mil vs March 83.5. China is more active buying Brazil soybeans. BAGE est soybean crop at 50.3 mmt vs USDA 49.0. China bought 30 mt Argentina soymeal as a test trade. US soybean export commit is up 11 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. USDA announced 110 mt US soybeans to Egypt. Soymeal sales were low. Total commit is 14.2 mmt vs 12.6 ly. Canada canola exports are 8.9 mmt vs 5.8 ly.
CORN
CU is near 4.10 and after making new lows. Dalian corn was higher. Trade est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,625 mil bu vs 4,997 ly. Trade est US corn acres at 95.4 mil vs March 95.3. There has been some talk Brazil corn crop could be as high as 150 mmt. US corn export commit is up 27 pct vs ly and USDA up 13. May be seeing some short covering before month end, quarter end, lower USD, first notice and Mondays USDA report. US farmer selling is also slow. Brazil corn futures made new lows. Argentina est soybean harvest at 55 pct and crop 49.0 mmt vs USDA 50.0.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.43. KWU is near 5.40. MWEU is near 6.30. Trade est US June 1 wheat stocks near 836 mil bu vs 696 ly. Trade est US wheat acres at 45.4 mil vs March 45.4. US wheat export commit is up 8 pct vs ly and USDA up 3. Survey est EU wheat crop near 131 mmt vs USDA 136.5 and Russia 84.6 mmt vs USDA 83.0. Canada wheat exports 25.1 mmt vs 22.1 ly. May be seeing some short covering before month end, quarter end, lower USD, first notice and Mondays USDA report. US plains drier which could aid harvest.
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