Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil traded to its highest levels in a week overnight but was back near unchanged later in the session. Trade talk optimism is viewed as supportive to demand, but reports that the US is preparing to allow Chevron to operate in Venezuela suggests crude oil supply could increase by some 200,000 barrels per day. US refineries are built to handle heavy crude of the type that Venezuela products. This may offer some insurance if the US decides to aggressively sanctions on Iran or Russia. Global supply got an interruption yesterday when Russia’s FSB security service suspended exports out of the Black Sea for nearly a day, blocking Kazakhstan’s oil exports.
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas has managed to hold Wednesday’s 8-month low, but it has traded in the bottom half of the day’s range for the past two sessions. The market did find some mild support yesterday from the weekly storage report, which showed EIA Gas storage for the week ending July 18 at 3,075 bcf, +23 bcf from the previous week. This was below the average trade expectation of +33 and below the lower end of range of expectations from +25 to +43. This was smaller than five-year average change for this week of +28, only the second time in 14 weeks that this has happened. It was also the smallest build since April 11. Storage is down -4.8% from a year ago and 5.8% above the five-year average. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have turned cooler as we have moved through the week, with below normal temps now expected from the Midwest to the East Coast from July 30 to August 7, with near-normal extending into the Plains.
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