Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mixed as traders assess the impact of Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s dovish comments on Friday, suggesting the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce its fed funds rate at the September policy meeting.
Durable goods orders in July increased 9.9% when up 4.5% was expected.
The 9:30 central time August Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey is forecast to be -16.0.
CURRENCY FUTURES
A flight to safety flow of funds is supporting the U.S. dollar in light of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
German business morale declined for a third straight month in August, reducing recovery hopes for Europe’s largest economy.
The Ifo institute said its business climate index fell to 86.6 in August from 87.0 in July, although it was above a forecast of 86.0.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to lower key interest rates this year.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures were lower in the overnight trade. However, futures were able to recover and trade higher this morning despite the bearish on balance July durable goods report.
There is a 66% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting, and there is a 34% probability that the FOMC will reduce its key interest rate by 50 basis points in September.
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