Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are higher. US stocks are higher on better earnings. USD is lower. Crude is higher and near $67. Gold is higher. US Midwest should see showers. 8-14 day warmer and drier. Fed Governor Waller is calling for rate cut. Waller does not see tariffs increasing inflation. Also worried about the US jobs market.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.26. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. New tech buying was noted at 10.16 on talk of drier Delta and south ECB and warmer weather. Soybeans also rallied on flash sale of US soybeans to unknown thought to be China. BOU traded to new highs and is becoming overbought. SMU resistance is near 278. Crush margins near season highs. US soybean export commit is up 12 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. New crop soybean sales improved by 529 mt. US soymeal export commit is near 15.1 mmt vs 13.3 ly. US farmer stopped selling 10.00 soybeans. Brazil soybean farmer selling also slowed.
CORN
CU is near 4.08. Dalian corn futures were higher. US domestic basis is firm on slow farmer selling and tighter 24/25 supply vs demand. Both crushers and exporters are bidding for corn. Record Brazil crop should reduce US 25/26 corn exports. Higher US crop and lower exports could increase carryout over 2,000 mil bu which should eventually trade futures below 3.80. Trump suggesting Coke to use cane sugar vs HFCS offered resistance. 1,200 mil bu of US corn is used for food products. US corn export commit is up 27 pct vs ly and USDA up 22 pct. There are rumors of some IL/MO corn hybrids yield potential due to tight tassel wrap. Argentina corn harvest near 80 pct. Export price slower and competitive for buyers.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.42. Key resistance is near 5.50. KWU is near 5.20. Key resistance is near 5.34. MWU is near 5.94 , near season lows and becoming oversold. Not sure if higher corn futures is helping wheat or higher wheat prices are helping corn. US wheat export commit is now up 7 pct vs last year and USDA up 3 pct. Russia export wheat prices are higher which could help US and EU export demand.
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