Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Some spillover selling in soybeans after USDA report. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower on talk of slower China demand. Key US financial reports this week include CPI, PPI and retail sales.
SU is near 9.55. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil all traded lower. USDA increased US 1.0 million acres and estimated US 2024 yields at a record 53.2. Most were looking for lower acres. After the close, USDA left the crop rated 68 pct G/E vs 59 ly. USDA did increase US 2024/25 exports to 1,850 vs 1,700 this year. Key will be China demand and 2025 South America supply. US soybean exports to date are down 18 pct vs ly. USDA increased China soybean imports to 111.5 mmt vs China est of 98.4. There is early talk of higher Brazil and Argentina 2025 acres. US west Midwest could see rains. USDA did drop Ukraine and Russia sunseed crop 2.25 mmt Annual Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour is next week.
CU is near 3.81. Dalian corn futures were lower. Corn rallied after USDA est US crop near 15,147 with a record 183.1 yield and acres down 700,000. After the close, USDA left the crop rated 67 pct G/E vs 59 ly. USDA did increase US 2024/25 exports to 2,300 vs 2,250 this year. US corn exports to date are up 37 pct vs ly. US export prices are still below both Ukraine and Brazil. USDA did drop Argentina crop 2 mmt to 50,0, BAGE still est crop at 46.5. US farmers still have 2023 and 2024 corn to sell, which will cap rallies. Annual Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour is next week.
WU is near 5.30. USDA did drop US crop 16 mil bu.to 1,982. USDA did keep US 2024/25 exports 825 vs 707 ly. US export to date are 155 mil bu vs 122.9 ly. USDA dropped spring wheat ratings 2 to 72 pct G/E. 18 pct of crop is harvested. US winter wheat crop harvest is near 93 pct. USDA raised HRW end stocks 12 mil bu, left SRW unch and lowered US HRS end stocks 24 mil bu and durum 14. US carryout is near 825 vs 702 ly. Egypt bought 180 mt Ukraine wheat and 50 mt Bulgarian wheat in their 3.8 mmt tender.
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