Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Report day. Month end. Quarter end. Grains are lower. SU is down 2 cents and near 13.14. SX is down 3 cents and near 13.09. SMU is near 352.9. BOU is near 61.10. CU is down 5 cents and near 5.54. CZ is down 7 cents and near 5.41. WU is down 2 cents and near 6.44. KWU is down 3 cents and near 6.23. MWU is down 11 cents and near 8.03.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. US consumer confidence is up. US housing prices also to continue to increase.
US 8-14 day weather forecast calls for below rains in NW Midwest normal to above east and south. Temps are above in NW and central Midwest below east and south. Today, forecast increase rains for the Dakotas and MN after July 7.
There were no corn, soymeal or Chicago wheat deliveries, There were 13 soybeans and 427 soyoil.
India lowered base import palmoil tax. Brazil corn futures up the daily limit due to frost damage.
Over the last 10 years, US June corn acres have been higher 4 times and lower 3 from USDA March. Over the last 10 years, US June soybean acres have been higher 6 times and lower 2 from USDA March .
Trade is looking for US corn acres near 93.8 vs 91.1 in March and 90.8 ly. Key is where acres are up. Trade range for corn acres is 3.8 million. June 1 corn stocks are est near 4,144 mil bu with range 629.
Trade is looking for US soybean acres near 88.9 vs 87.6 in March and 83.1 ly. Key is where acres are up. Trade range for soybean acres is 2.5 million. June 1 soybean stocks are near 787 mil bu with range 256.
Trade is looking for US wheat acres near 45.9 vs 46.3 in March and 44.3 ly. Key is US HRS weather. Trade range for wheat acres is 2.7 million. June 1 wheat stocks are est near 859 mil bu with range 183.
July US/World WASDE report key for US corn and soybean demand outlook and first wheat by class est
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 1,000 soymeal and net bought 2,,000, Corn; 2,000 Soybeans; and 3,000 lots of soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 21,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 229,000 Corn; net long 60,000 Soybeans; net long 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 51,000 Soyoil.
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