Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. World weather and global geopolitical tensions adds to markets uncertainty.
SOYBEANS
Overnight futures are higher on talk higher demand. South America is still forecasted to get needed rains. SX is near 10.50. Soybean open interest near season high. BOZ is highest since July 23. Soyoil supported by higher Crude and talk palmoil users will increase biodiesel program. SMZ has dropped from season high on delay of EU deforestation policy. Soymeal open interest was near season high after recent rally in futures from 325 to 351. Overnight is near 334. China is closed for holiday. US Midwest 2 week forecast is warm and dry which should help harvest. US soybean export commit is 18.9 mmt vs 18.4 ly, USDA goal is 50.3 vs 46.3 ly.
CORN
Corn futures are lower. Corn futures are overbought. CZ failed at 4.35. Corn is following wheat lower. Brazil is dry but rains are forecast in week 2. China is on holiday. US west Midwest is warm and dry which should help harvest. US ethanol margins have declined. US corn export commit is 16.4 mmt vs 14.4 ly, USDA goal is 58.4 vs 58.2 ly. E EU domestic prices are firm as buyers look for quality corn. France corn harvest is delayed due to rains. Corn futures straggling with good export demand vs big US crop and South America rains. Black Sea is still dry with lower corn supply prospects.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are lower. WZ failed at 6.00 again. KWZ is gaining more vs WZ. WZ-WH spread widening due to concern over SRW demand. US wheat export commit is near 11.6 mmt vs 9.4 ly. USDA goal is 22.4 vs 19.2 ly. US HRW commit is near 2.7 vs 1.7 ly. US white commit is near 3.0 vs 2.0 ly. US south plains and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet and cool. Russia wheat price have traded higher, but so has World prices. This continues to leave Russia competitive for buyers. Turkey new import policy suggest less imports. Egypt looking for toll import program.
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