Nat Gas Fell To Lowest Level Since May 30

NATURAL GAS

August Natural Gas fell to its lowest level since May 30 overnight, as the forecasts for the lower 48 states show a normal pattern emerging over the Central Plain, Midwest, Great Lakes, and the northern Atlantic states over the next couple of weeks. For the EIA gas storage report today, the Reuters poll has an average expectation calling for a net injection of 88 bcf for the week ending June 20 (range +77 to +99). The five-year average change for the week is +78 bcf.  If the report comes in at expectations storage will be down -6.8% from a year ago and 5.8% above the five-year average versus -8.0% and +5.6% the previous week. Reuters reports that under the Trump administration, the Department of Energy has so far issued five liquified natural gas (LNG) authorizations in the Gulf states of Louisiana, Texas and Florida. LSEG also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, to rise from 102.8 bcfd this week to 104.9 bcfd next week, but these forecasts were down from the outlook on Monday.

CRUDE OIL

August Crude Oil is near unchanged this morning and inside yesterday’s narrow range and well off Monday’s high. The market saw a key reversal action lower on Monday in the wake of the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend that extended into Tuesday, and not even a bullish EIA report yesterday could lift the market much off Tuesday’s lows. President Trump indicated yesterday that the US and Iran would hold talks next week; no word yet from Iran. Trump has suggested that the US could consider easing enforcement of the restrictions on Iranian crude exports to China. According to Reuters, LSEG data indicated that Asia imported 27.36 million barrels per day of crude oil in the first half of 2025, up 620,0000 bpd from the same period last year. Imports reached 28.65 million bpd in June, the highest since January 2023 and up from 27.3 million bpd in May and 26.42 million bpd in June last year. China’s imports were estimated at 11.96 million bpd, the highest since 12.11 million bpd in March, and India is expected to reach 5.26 million bpd, which would be the highest since the 5.35 million bpd in March. The EIA stocks reports yesterday came in bullish across the board, with crude oil stocks falling more than expected last week and gasoline and distillate stocks declining versus expectations calling for slight increases. Implied gasoline demand also came in strong relative to the previous week and a year ago.

PRODUCTS

The EIA stocks report this week showed US gasoline and distillate stocks both fell last week despite expectations for an increase. Furthermore implied gasoline demand came in above last week and a year ago, suggesting a strong start to the summer driving season. This lent some support to the markets, but both are under the influence of a key reversal off Monday’s highs. Distillate stocks are the lowest they have been at this point in the season in at least five years, and gasoline stocks are below last year and below the five-year average.

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