Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures are mostly higher with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures advancing to record highs. Futures are being supported by continued fiscal and monetary support.
Jobless claims in the week ended June 26 were 364,000 when 395,000 were expected.
The 8:45 central time June PMI manufacturing final is estimated to be 62.6.
The 9:00 June Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 61 and the 9:00 May construction spending report is predicted to show a 0.5% increase.
There is a triple top in the September Russell 2000 futures at 2346.70 – 2346.90.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index hit a three-month high in the overnight trade before profit taking took prices lower. The greenback is lower despite the smaller than expected jobless claims number.
The euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate edged down to 7.9% in May 2021, which is the lowest level since May 2020 and is slightly below market expectations of 8.0%. The number of unemployed decreased by 306,000 to 12.792 million.
Retail sales in Germany increased 4.2% month-to-month in May of 2021 when a gain of 5.0% was anticipated.
The British pound initially fell when Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned against over-reaction to rising inflation in the U.K.
Mr. Bailey said it was important to ensure that the recovery was not undermined by a premature tightening in monetary conditions, since a rise in inflation was likely to be temporary.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The 30-year Treasury bond futures bounced off its daily lows despite the bearish jobless claims report.
Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1:00.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened recently with shorter-dated yields increasing to reflect higher rate expectations, while longer-dated yields fell because higher interest rates in the near term would likely mean a slower rate of growth in the future.
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