Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is unch and near 13.34. SMH is near 400.0. BOH is near 54.52. CH is up 1 cent and near 6.03. WH is down 1 cent and near 8.13. KWH is up 3 cents and near 8.56. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 10.30. CBOT closed Friday.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar and Crude are mixed. Copper, coffee, cocoa and sugar are lower. Key US consumer spending and jobless claims report today.
Managed funds adding to longs and could add more to soybean, soymeal, soyoil and wheat. Weekly US export sales ar est near 700-1,700 mt soybeans, 700-1,400 corn and 200-500 wheat.
US south plains will remain dry. S Russia and S Ukraine could see snow. Cold this week. It had been a decade since the Black Sea has had a hard winter; truck/rail/vessel logistices. S Brazil and Argentina forecast is warm and dry. GFS model shows rain in S Brazil late in 2 week.
Dalian soybeans and rapeoil were lower. Soymeal, soyoil, palmoil and corn futures were higher. China domestic soymeal trade slowed. China soybean crush margins turned negative. SH is now up 90 cents from last weeks low. SMH is up $60 and just $9 off of contract highs Matif rapeseed futures higher. Canada canola and Dalian RSO futures were lower.
Corn futures higher on SA weather and strong US cash basis helping. US farmer increase sales. CH is up 100 cents from September low and 50 cents from last weeks low. US domestic corn use higher than USDA estimate. Corn exports higher esp Canada/Mexico.
US south plains dryness supports KC futures. Some est 2022 HRW crop at 737, carryout 191. KWH trade over 8.44 suggest test of 9.00. WH over 20 day moving average. 8.18 resistance. WH is up 69 cents from last weeks low, KWH is up 80 cents, MWH is up 30 cents. Same analyst est US 2022 wheat crop at 1,825 carryout 470. RMA WW acres lower than est. Iraq buying World wheat trade supportive. Most buyers lack coverage. Sticker shock. There is also talk that US domestic HRW basis up 10-20 cents, US HRW gulf up 5-10 cents.
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