Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
SU is near 9.47. Market sold off on talk of record US soybean crop and net cancellation of old crop US soybeans. Fact there were daily new crop sales to China and unknown offered support. China has 75 mil bu of new crop US sales. Trade estimates China export at 900-1,000 mil bu. This weeks, US Midwest forecast will be dry and warm. Premium are firming on increase demand but harvest looms. Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 339 vs USDA 345 and 264 ly. Trade also est US 2024 soybean crop at 4.589 v 4,449 ly and carryout 537 vs USDA 560.
CU is near 3.63. Market sold off on talk of record US corn crop and lower wheat prices. This weeks, US Midwest forecast will be dry and warm. Talk of a 181 Pro Farmer yield vs USDA 183 offers support. US farmer has a lot of corn to sell which limits rallies. Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 1,872 vs USDA 1,867 and 1,360 ly. Trade est exports at 2,225 mil bu vs 1,661 ly. Trade also est US 2024 corn crop at 15,147 vs 15,342 ly and carryout 2,179 vs USDA 2,073.
WU is near 4,99. WU has broken below support on weak tech action. Russia wheat prices may be near season lows but exporters remains aggressive sellers to cash buyers. Trade est US 2024 crop at 1,982 vs 1,812 ly and carryout 800 vs USDA 825. USDA est US exports at 825 vs 709 ly. Trade hopes lower US dollar and interest rates will help consumer demand. US 2023/24 wheat food demand dropped 17 mil bu vs previous year.
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