Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures advanced yesterday to new record highs. Stock index futures are mixed today.
There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is higher.
Producer prices in Germany shrank by 0.8% year-over-year in August, which is the same pace as in July and better than forecasts of a 1.0% decline.
Retail sales in the U.K. increased 1.0% month-over-month in August, following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in July and well above predictions of 0.4%.
The Bank of Japan unanimously decided to retain its key short-term interest rate at approximately 25 basis points at its policy meeting today, keeping it at the highest level since 2008. This was in line with the market consensus.
Japanese consumer price index inflation increased as expected in August. The core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, increased 2.8% year-on-year to a 10-month high in August, which was in line with expectations and advanced from the 2.7% reported in the prior month.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Patrick Harker of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1:00 central time.
It is my opinion that Wednesday’s 50-basis points reduction in the fed funds from the Federal Open Market Committee is the first in a series of interest rate reductions that will continue well into 2025.
It is widely expected that the FOMC will reduce its key interest rate again at its November meeting by 25 basis points and also by 25 basis points at its December policy meeting.
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