Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
S&P 500 stock index futures are on course to finish the year about 27.2% higher, which would be its largest annual percentage gain since 2019. This puts the market benchmark on track for its third straight annual gain.
Dow stock index futures were up 18.9% through Thursday’s close, also putting it on pace for its third consecutive yearly gain.
Although stock index futures are lower this morning, it is likely that futures will recover and trade higher later today.
Follow-through gains for stock index futures are likely going into the first part of next year.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar and the euro currency remain in broad sideways patterns, and with interest rate differential expectations offering no clear advantage to either currency, the sideways trade will likely continue into 2022.
A hawkish Bank of England will likely support the pound going into the first part of 2022 and an accommodative Bank of Japan will likely pressure the yen in the first part of next year.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures at the short end of the curve broke out above a downtrend line yesterday that started in late November.
The March 30-year Treasury bond futures broke out under a triple bottom (160^11 – 160^14) on Wednesday, but have partially recovered. I believe this will prove to be a false sell signal and futures will advance above this triple bottom early in January.
If the U.S. economy weakens, it may be difficult for the Fed to justify an accelerated taper of its asset-purchase program, especially now that some central banks are adding more accommodation or are delaying the partial removal of easy-monetary policies.
The fundamentals for the interest rate futures are mostly aligned on the bullish side.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
