Higher Global Freight May Slow Import Buying

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is lower. OPEC agreed to increase production in September. Some est Crude could test $55. Gold is lower. US tariffs could slow World economy. World Weather LH August weather could see below normal rains in east corn belt with normal temps.

SOYBEANS 

SU is near 9.76 and supported by strong Brazil basis. Dalian soybean futures were lower, Soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were higher. There were 252 soymeal deliveries with commercial stopper. US soybean exports were up 11 pct vs ly and USDA up 10. StoneX est US soybean yield at 53.6 vs USDA 52.5. This would add 90 mil bu to crop and carryout. USDA rated US crop 69 pct G/E vs 70 last week and 68 ly. AR 71, IL 63 and IA 80. 58 pct of crop is setting pods vs 58 average. India July vegoil imports were at 8 month high led by higher soyoil. One analyst est US 2026 soybean acres at 87, crop of 4,545 and 26/27 carryout at 675 or multiple years of low cash prices.

CORN 

CU is near 3.85. Dalian corn futures were lower. US corn exports are up 28 pct vs ly and USDA up 22. Higher global freight may be slowing import buying. StoneX surprised the market with at 188.1 US corn yield vs USDA 181. This would add 618 mil bu to US crop and carryout. USDA est that 88 pct of US corn crop is silking vs 89 average. IA 92 and IL 96. USDA rated the crop 73 pct G/E vs 73 last week and 67 ly. IA 85 and IL 69. One analyst est US 2026 corn acres at 91, crop of 15,197 and 26/27 carryout at 2,467 or multiple years of low cash prices.

WHEAT 

WU is near 5.15. KWU is near 5.14. MWU is near 5.74. US wheat exports are up 9 pct vs ly and USDA up 3. East EU dry with talk of lower wheat crop. West EU rains are slowing harvest and raising concern over quality. Russia wheat yields are improving as harvest moves north. USDA est US winter wheat harvest at 86 pct vs 87 average. USDA rated US spring wheat crop 48 pct G/E vs 49 last week and 74 ly with 5 pct of crop harvested vs 9 average. One analyst est US 2026 wheat acres at 46, crop of 1,950 and 26/27 carryout at 986 or multiple years of low cash prices.

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