Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Key US financial reports this week suggested lower inflation.
SU is near 9.57 US central and west Midwest rains helps support USDA record soybean crop estimate. Next 2 weeks looks drier with normal temps. Weekly US old crop soybean export sales are est at 100-500 mt and new crop 400-1,000mt. USDA est US 2024/25 soybean exports at 1,850 mil bu vs 1,700 ly. Still, SU-SX spread has widened to -17. July NOPA US soybean crush is est at 182 mil bu vs 173 ly. Soyoil stocks are est a 1,608 mil lbs vs 1,622 in JUNE nd 1,527 ly. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were Higher.
CU is near 3.77. Favorable central US Midwest weather offers resistance. Next 2 weeks looks drier with normal temps. Fact US farmers have 2023 corn to sell has widened CU-CZ spread to -20. Weekly US old crop corn export sales are est at 300-550 mt and new crop 150-800 mt. USDA est US 2024/25 corn exports at 2,300 mil bu vs 2,250 this year. Dalian corn futures were higher. Russian missiles attacked western owned grain silos.
WU is near 5.40. US futures are trying to adjust to USDA lowering US supply. WU has bounced to near 5.40. KWU has bounced to near 5.53. MWU is near higher end of a 5,75 to 6,00 range. There are rumors that Egypt may be negotiating a large Black Sea wheat purchase. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-500 mt. Canada rail workers are threating strike. Russian missiles attacked western owned grain silos.
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