Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly higher. SF is up 9 cents and near 12.62. SMZ is near 361.5. BOZ is near 59.33. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.86. WZ is up 8 cents and near 8.33. KWZ is up 10 cents and near 8.76. MWZ is up 12 cents and near 10.51.
US stocks, Crude and most commodities have retraced some of Fridays losses on hope South Africa Covid variant will ne be as bad as feared. US Midwest dry. EU and Russia showers. Australia wet. Argentina showers. Brazil weather favorable. Global tensions building between China and US/Germany on Taiwan. Russia and Ukraine war? Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, palmoil and corn futures are lower.
SF found resistance near 13.00. Soybean supported by positive US crush margins. Exports lower. China soybean coverage now through December. Brazil could have new crop soybean in Jan for export. USDA ERS lowered value of US soybean exports 12 pct from August. Equals 100 mil bu. USDA Dec 9 Supply and demand report could show higher US soybean carryout and lower China imports. Argentina threatening meat, corn and wheat export tax. Brazil soybean prices lower. Slow China buying. Brazil soymeal prices $50 discount to US. Could slow US soymeal export demand.
Matif wheat futures ended lower. Russia wheat prices mixed. MWZ gained on WZ and KWZ. Some feel WH and KWH are near key support. End users should add to 2022 coverage. Some could see further decline in US winter wheat crop due to HRW dryness. Lower Canada supplies.
Matif corn new highs. EU supplies declining. Late rally on Friday due to Dec option expiration. Brazil corn exports remain active. Brazil domestic corn prices higher. US ethanol data supportive. CZ found support near 5.70. Resistance is near 5.90. Key is South America 60 day weather. On Dec 9, USDA could raise US ethanol use, lower exports leaving carryout unch. Funds buying 2022.
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