Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. USD is lower. Gold is lower. US Midwest will see above normal temps this weekend. Temps will return to normal mid-week with new rains. EU is dry and warm especially in west. Ukraine and Russia are dry. US Fed left rates unchanged waiting for more information in tariff impact on inflation and US economy.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.65. BOU is near 56 cents. Some est US June 1 soybean stocks near 984 mil bu vs 970 ly. Some say on farm stocks could be below last year. Argentina soybean harvest is 97 pct with crop est at 50.3 mmt. There is a potential for Argentina export tax. Ukraine could also impose and export tax. Events in the Middle East continue to support crude oil values, the main weather concern is the potential impact of the dry spell in Europe. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 0-400 mt vs 61 last week. World 2025/26 soybean Supply and Demand forecast higher supply. Higher Brazil and lower US soybean exports.
CORN
CU is near 4.31. July options expire today. Argentina is low cost corn origin. Argentina corn harvest 50 pct with crop est at 49.0 mmt. Some est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,683 mil bu vs 4,997 ly. Some say on farm stocks could be below last year. The rise in fob basis and freight costs are the main supports to destination market prices. Brazilian farmers are joining many other farmers around the world who prefer to lock up grain in cheap storage than sell at lower prices. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 600-1,200 mt vs 791 last week.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.85. KWU is near 5.82. MWEU is near 6.58. Some est US June 1 wheat stocks near 842 mil bu vs 696 ly. Some say on farm stocks could be below last year. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-600 mt vs 388 last week. Argentina wheat plantings are 60 pct with crop 20.0 mmt vs 18.6 ly. Russia Ag Minister est wheat crop at 90 mmt vs USDA est near 87-88. This despite talk of lower acres and dry weather.
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