Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Soybeans and corn are higher, Wheat is lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch near $70. Gold is higher.
SOYBEANS
SX is found support near 9.80. Dalian soybean and soymeal were lower. Spyoil and palmoil were higher. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. Conab est Brazil crop at 166 mmt vs USDA 169.0. US NOPA Sep crush was 177.3 mil bu vs 165.4 ly. Largest increase is in MN,ND,SD,MT. Soyoil stocks were 1,066 mil lbs vs 1,108 ly. This helped firm domestic basis and narrowed SX-SH spread from -19 to -11. US harvest is 67 pct vs 51 average. IL is 62. IA is 81. US soybean exports are 188 mil bu vs 202 ly. China was active buyer of Brazil beans. USDA announced 131 mt US soybeans to China. US winter wheat planting is 64 vs 66 average. USDA announced 120 mt US SRW to Mexico.
CORN
CZ held 4.00. Dalian corn was lower. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. Conab est Brazil crop at 119 mmt vs USDA 127.0. Charts are negative which is increasing new selling. Cash is firming and CZ-CH spread is -16 from -19. US harvest is 47 pct and a near record weekly pace of 17 pct. IL is 49. IA is 45. Open harvest weather could have harvest near 63 pct by Sunday. Weekly US corn exports were well below estimates. US corn exports are 185 mil bu vs 156 ly.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.77 and below 20 DMA. Rain are forecast for US plains and S Russia. TX, OK and W KS could see 2.00-4.00 inches of rain next Sun-Tue. Some fear Russia floor price at $250 could actually end up being a ceiling price. Most quote Russia near $235-240. There is concern that lower global energy demand could also reduce food demand. US winter wheat planting is 64 vs 66 average. KS is 68. USDA est US pasture conditions 22 pct G/E vs 25 last week and 33 ly. KS is 19. US wheat exports are 330 mil bu vs 248 last year. USDA announced 120 mt US SRW to Mexico.
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