Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up 14 cents and near 13.77. SX is up 15 cents and near 13.73. SMU is near 357.3. BOU is near 65.31. CU is up 6 cents and near 5.56. CZ is up 6 cents and near 5.53. WU is down 1 cent and near 6.75. KWU is up 1 cent and near 6.40. MWU is up 7 cents and near 8.86.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
No Monday US Midwest rains. Rains next 5 days only MO, MI and SE. 8-14 day normal rain above temps.
Analyst est US 21/22 SB carryout 120 vs 155. US soybean exports 58.0 mmt vs 38.8 ly. USDA goal 61.8. Analyst est US 21/22 corn carryout 970 vs 1,432. US corn exports 61.3 mmt vs 37.3 ly. USDA goal 72.4. Analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout 580 vs USDA 665. US wheat exports 3.3 mmt vs 4.1 ly. Goal 23.8
Active China Jan-Mar soymeal traded triggered rumors of China buying US Jan-Mar soybeans. Rumors China buying US new crop corn and soybean futures for Jan-Mar buying US soybeans. Argentina announced 180 day water emergency. 80 pct grain exports out Parana river.
NASS rated US corn crop 64 pct good/ex vs 72 last year. Highest rated crop is MI, TN and OH. Lowest crop is in ND, SD and MN. NASS rated US soybean crop 58 pct good/ex vs 72 last year. Highest rated crop is KY,LA,MI,NE and TN. Lowest crop is in ND, SD and MN where 23 pct US soybean acres are.
One crop watcher est US corn yield near 175.5 with a range of 170-180. Beans 50. Range 46-51. His Brazil Argentina soybean crop near 179 mmt vs USDA 185 and 177 ly. Corn 134 vs USDA 141 and 153 ly.
NASS rated the US spring wheat crop 9 pct good/ex vs 11 last week and 70 last year. 3 pct of the crop is harvested. NASS estimated that 84 pct of US winter wheat crop was harvested vs 73 last week
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 1,000 soymeal and bought 2,000 corn; 6,000 soybeans; and 4,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 13,000 SRW Wheat; long 223,000 Corn; net long 86,000 Soybeans; net long 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 61,000 Soyoil.
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