Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 3 cents and near 13.83. SMH is near 408.1. BOH is near 59.14. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.03. WH is down 5 cents and near 7.40. KWH is down 10 cents and near 7.58. MWZ is down 10 cents and near 9.13. Dalian corn, soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Palmoil and soyoil were higher.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, copper, cocoa, cotton, coffee and sugar are higher. Commodities are trying to recover from hawkish US Central Bank comments. Increase cases of Covid could slow Global and China economic growth.
Weekly US soybean export sales were only 382 mt. Total commit down 24 pct vs USDA 9. US soyoil futures were higher on talk of higher exports and increase demand for biodiesel. Soybeans are lower on talk of rains in dry areas of South America late next week. Brazil soybean crop down 10-15 mmt vs USDA, Argentina down 5 mmt Total SA down 20 mmt. BAGE rated Argentina soybean crop 48 pct G/E vs 56 lw. Soils 42 pct dry vs 31 last week. Failure to trade over 14.00 SH and 416 SMH triggered long liquidation. BOH tested 59.27.
Weekly US corn export sales were only 256 mt. Still total commit on pace to reach USDA goal. Some estimate Brazil corn crop near 113 mmt vs USDA 118. Argentina 52 vs USDA 54.5. BAGE rated Argentina corn crop 40 pct G/E vs 58 lw. 48 pct crop early planted. Yield loss 20 pct.
Additional wheat futures selling overnight. French export prices lower. Australia exports higher.
Some estimate US Dec 1 corn stocks at 11,600 mil bu vs 11,294 ly. Sep-Nov use 4,461 4,743 ly.
Some estimate US Dec 1 soybean stocks at 3,100 mil bu vs 2,947 ly. Sep-Nov use 1,575 1,797 ly.
Some estimate US Dec 1 wheat stocks at 1,350 mil bu vs 1,703 ly. Sep-Nov use 451 vs 483 ly.
Some est US 2022 wheat acres at 48.2 vs 46.7 ly. Winter wheat 33.3 vs 33.6. Spring 12.7 vs 11.4.
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