Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 2 cents and near 13.71. SMZ is near 406.4. BOZ is near 65.05. CZ is unchanged and near 6.97. WZ is down 10 cents and near 9.27. KWZ is down 9 cents and near 10.14 MWZ is down 13 cents and near 10.01.
Weekly US export inspections and crop progress were delayed until today. USDA report tomorrow. Some feel USDA needs to increase carryin to 274 mil bu. Crop could be near 4,327 mil bu. USDA could raise crush 30 mil bu but lower exports 100 mil bu. Carryout could be near 259 vs USDA 200. 2023 South America crops could be record. China demand could be lower than USDA September estimate. US recession adds to demand worries. Some estimate 2023/24 US soybean carryout near 400 due to higher crop/supply.
Weekly US export inspections and crop progress were delayed until today. USDA report tomorrow. Some feel USDA needs to drop US crop 100 mil bu. USDA could raise feed/residual 250 mil bu but lower exports 275 and ethanol use 75 mil bu. Carryout could be near 1,065 vs USDA 1,219. 2023 South America crops could be record. US recession adds to demand worries. Some estimate 2023/24 US corn carryout to near 1,775 due to higher crop.
Wheat futures may be seeing some long liquidation before USDA report. Higher Dollar and lower commodity prices may also be trigger Wheat selling. Informa raised World wheat crop 7 mmt due to higher Russia, Australia, EU and Brazil. Weekly US export inspections and crop progress were delayed until today. USDA report tomorrow. Some feel USDA needs to lower US crop to 1,650 mil bu. USDA could increase imports 10 mil bu, lower food use 12 and exports 35 mil bu. Carryout could be near 575 vs USDA 610.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
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