Grains Look Mixed to Higher

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed to higher. SH is up 11 cents and near 13.66. SMH is near 412.9. BOH is near 57.05. CH is up 5 cents and near 5.94. WH is unch and near 7.58. KWH is up 1 cent and near 7.93. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 9.66.

US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher.

Dalian corn, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Soybeans and rapeseed oil lower. China PMI up to 50.9. Coal prices higher. Indonesia banned coal exports to China.

Palmoil a premium to SB on production concerns due to floods, job shortage, high fertilizer. S Brazil and Argentina could see shower next 10 days. Higher temps offset showers.

Soybeans are higher on concern over SA supplies. Some est Brazil near 134 vs USDA 144. Parana and MGDS Governors declared state of emergency. Parana yields down 39 pct=10 mmt. Some could also see Argentina soybean crop 44.5 vs USDA 49.5. Total SA down 550 mil bu. Recent SH high was 13.84. SMH 415. BOH 57.80. Lower SA supplies could test resistance.

Recent CH high was near 6.17. Lower SA crops supportive. Increase US farmer selling negative. Some estimate Brazil corn crop near 113 mmt vs USDA 118. Argentina 52 vs USDA 54.5.

Recent WH high 8.24, KWH 8.72, MWH 10.36. Slow US exports and higher US Dollar negative. Russia may not export 36 mmt wheat. World demand up 5-7 mmt, 2021 stocks down 10 mmt. 2022 N Hemisphere must increase 15-20 mmt to help increase export supply limit price gain. USDA rated KS wheat crop 33 G/E vs 51 in Dec and 62 in Nov. IL SRW 75 vs 79 in Nov and 50 ly.

Some estimate US Dec 1 corn stocks at 11,700 mil bu vs 11,294 ly. Sep-Nov use 4,461 4,743 ly. Some estimate US Dec 1 soybean stocks at 3,100 mil bu vs 2,947 ly. Sep-Nov use 1,575 1,797 ly. Some estimate US Dec 1 wheat stocks at 1,350 mil bu vs 1,703 ly. Sep-Nov use 451 vs 483 ly. Some est US 2022 wheat acres at 48.5 vs 46.7 ly. Winter wheat 33.9 vs 33.6. Spring 12.7 vs 11.4.

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