Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 9 cents and near 12.29. SMZ is near 330.0. BOZ is near 62.96. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.40. WZ is up 6 cents and near 7.62. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 7.77. MWZ is up 6 cents and near 10.19.
US Fed Chairman said supply chain constraints have worsened, creating more inflation risk. US taper bond buying in November? Crude higher. US Dollar higher. Big Tech earnings this week.
Heavy rains fell across US Midwest. More rain this week. FH Nov drier/cooler.
Dalian corn/soymeal futures higher. Palmoil higher. Matif wheat futures higher. 892 mt wheat auction. Increase China Covid cases could slow China economy. China Central Bank increase stimulus.
Corn futures traded higher as focus shifted from supply to increase demand. US demand up 400 mil bu? Some feel CZ could trade over 6.00 post US harvest on higher demand and lower US 2022 acres. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout from 1,243 to 1,305 mil bu vs USDA 1,500. US ethanol industry near 95 pct capacity. US corn harvest near 65 pct vs 54 ave. Rains could slow harvest.
Weekly US soybean export sales 106 mil bu. Total commit 1,075 vs 1,666 ly USDA goal 2,090 vs 2,265 ly. SX in narrow range. US cash soybean crush near +$2.40. Higher meal/soyoil basis lower soybean helping. Trade est US soybean harvest near 77 pct versus 70 average. US 2021/22 carryout 365-415 vs USDA 320. Argentina seeking needed rains. Brazil crop plantings ahead of normal. Brazil Jan beans +49 vs US +1.10.
MWZ traded over 10.00. Tight World supplies supportive. La Nina could force KWZ to 8.25. Informa est US 2022 wheat acres 48.8 vs 46.7. US 2022 wheat crop 2,059 vs 1,646 ly. Trade estimates US 2021/22 wheat carryout 550-640 vs USDA 580. US winter wheat crop 65-69 pct G/E. EU wheat exports should slow, higher prices, Russia wheat prices higher as export tax higher.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
