Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Key US financial reports this week include CPI, PPI and retail sales.
SU is near 9.83. Futures made new lows last week on lower than needed China buying US soybeans and talk of record US 2024 crop. Average trade guess for US soybean yield is 52.5. Trade also est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 349 and 2024/25 carryout near 465. Argentina oilseed workers strike continues as delays slow exports loadings. This could offer support to soymeal futures. US west Midwest could be warmer and drier over the next 10 days. Annual Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour is next week.
CU is near 3.75. Futures made new lows last week. US corn export prices are lower than Ukraine and Brazil. Average trade guess for US corn yield is 182.2. Key could be if USDA drops planted acres. Trade also est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 1,876 and US 2024/25 carryout near 2,096. Trade still has to deal with fact US farmers have 2023 corn to sell over next few weeks and have sold little 2024 crop. Annual Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour is next week.
WU is near 5.36. Managed funds remain large wheat shorts. Charts are negative and carryout in futures suggest more free supply than demand. Average trade guess for US wheat crop is 2015 mil bu. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout near 862. Trade est World wheat end stocks at 256 mt vs 257 in July and 261 ly. Key US financial reports this week could give some idea of consumer demand.
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