Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIT. Grains are slightly higher. US stocks are unch. USD is up slightly. Crude is lower. Gold is unch. US House is ready to pass Trump BBB. US CEO’S warn IT will wipeout many jobs. Jobs report day today. US July temps above for AR, MS, MO,W IA, E NE and PNW. Rain below ave for AR, MS, MO, NE and PNW. CBOT grains closed tonight and tomorrow for holiday and will reopen Sunday night.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.41. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher.US House is expected to pass Trump BBB tax bill with 45Z included with only NA feed stocks for biofuel. Soybean futures rallied on rumors of US and China trade deal including soybeans and Vietnam deal lowering tariffs for US soybeans. Brazil soybean basis dropped on increase farmer selling. China bought Brazil and Argentina August and Sep soybeans. Palmoil futures supported by talk of higher exports, lower supply and lower stocks. Lower EU water levels are widening rapeseed Aug-Sep spreads. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 300-700 mt vs 402 last week.
CORN
CU is near 4.21. Dalian corn was lower and near 1 month low. Corn futures rallied on short covering before long holiday weekend and next weeks USDA report. Market trying to balance fact US corn crop could be best in last 7 seasons vs EU crop could be worst in last 3 seasons. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 400-1,000 mt vs 741 last week. US weekly ethanol prod was up 1 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 2 pct vs ly. 108 mil bu of corn was used vs 93 needed to reach USDA annual goal.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.63. KWU is near 5.42. MWU is near 6.51. Wheat futures rallied on more short covering led by spring wheat futures. Concern about EU protein has increased talk of higher demand for milling wheat and talk lower EU corn crop could increase EU wheat feeding. Still Black Sea wheat prices have retraced to last years harvest lows. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 255 last week.
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