Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Turnaround Thursday? Chicago windy city today! SH is up 8 cent and near 12.73. SMH is near 371.1. BOH is near 54.09. CH is up 2 cents and near 5.88. WH is up 3 cents and near 7.59. KWH is up 3 cents and near 7.87. MWZ is up 3 cents and near 10.13.
US stocks are higher after US Fed comments. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
Dalian soybean and soymeal are higher. Corn, palmoil and soyoil are lower.
US south plains dry. Midwest storms. Russia cold. Argentina and S Brazil drier forecast. NOAA out this morning with update on US 30 and 90 day weather forecast.
Informa out today with latest estimates of US 2022 planted acres by crop.
Soyoil futures rallied off 6 month lows after NOPA crush report soyoil stocks lower than est. Soyoil monthly implied use 2nd largest ever. BOA report est biofuel use quadruple by 2025. Weekly US soybean export sales est near 1,100-1,775 mt vs 1,638 last week. Soybean market still concerned about US/China tension, China absence from US market. Brazil soybean export year will start in 5-6 weeks. US soybean crush rate/margins supportive.
Weekly US ethanol production continues to suggest USDA needs at add 100-150 to demand. Parana lowered their corn crop rating to 70 G/E vs 90. RGDS reporting corn yields down 20 pct. Matif and Black Sea corn futures lower following lower US wheat and corn futures closes. US weekly corn export sales est at 1,200-2,000 mt vs 1,132 last week.
Wheat futures selloff linked to big Index roll out of wheat into soymeal. Australia wheat crop 36 mmt vs USDA 34. Argentina 22 vs USDA 20. EU wheat exports 35 vs 36. Matif wheat futures lower following US selloff. Managed funds long 60 pct of open interest. Russia announced lower 2022 wheat export quota. Still selling 2021 wheat. Tension between US, Russia and Ukraine may be easing. Increase tension bullish wheat. Weekly US wheat export sales est near 200-400 mt vs 240 last week.
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