Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Risk off Monday. Risk on today. SH is up 3 cents and near 13.87. SMH is near 417.4. BOH is near 58.35. CH is up 3 cents and near 6.02. WH is up 2 cents and near 7.64. KWH is up 2 cents and near 7.80. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.15.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. US Fed Chairman confirmations hearing today.
There may have been some long liquidation on Monday before the key USDA Jan 12 report. Many hope for a bearish report so they can buy a break into 2022. Trade estimate US Dec 1 corn stocks at 11,602 mil bu vs 11,294 ly. Trade estimate US Dec 1 soybean stocks at 3,129 mil bu vs 2,947 ly. Trade estimate US Dec 1 wheat stocks at 1,421 mil vs 1,703 ly. Trade est US 2022 Winter wheat acres at 34.2 vs 33.6. HRW 24.0 vs 23.5, SRW 6.5 vs 6.6. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,472 mil bu, soybeans 348 and wheat 608.
While USDA may not estimate it this week some estimates of South America corn crop are down 10-12 mmt. CONAB est Brazil crops today. Brazil Parana state report 50 pct crop yield loss. Some see South America soybean crop down 17-21 mmt. Hot/dry 10 days could add to losses. Rains are still forecasted next week.
Weekly US corn exports were 1.0 mmt. Season to date exports 14.1 vs 16.5 ly. USDA goal is 63.5 vs 69.9 ly. Dec Ukraine corn exports were a record 5 mmt. Pace above USDA estimate. US soybean exports were 905 mt. Season to date exports 31.6 mmt vs 41.1 ly. USDA goal is 55.8 vs 61.7 ly. Wheat exports were 233 mt. Season to date exports 12.4 mmt vs 15.3 ly. USDA goal is 22.8 vs 27.0 ly. Some feel lower South America crops could increase demand for US corn and soybean exports. US wheat export prices could become more competitive in March-May.
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