Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 6 cents and near 12.68. SMH is near 363.2. BOH is near 53.80. CH is down 2 cents and near 5.87. WH is down 8 cents and near 7.77. KWH is down 7 cents and near 7.98. MWZ is down 10 cents and near 10.21.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is marginally higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher, plamoil and soyoil lower. SH in between 12.40 support and 13.00 resistance. Fact USDA did not change US carryout was supportive. Focus shifts to USDA Jan 12 report, South America weather and demand for US exports. Talk of a wetter SA weather forecast could offer resistance. Fact USDA raised World soybean traded to a record 172.3 mmt vs 164.7 ly is supportive. World Sep-Nov trade was 35.8 mmt vs 37.9 ly. US exports were down 6 mmt. Analyst est US 2022/23 carryout 475. This could limit upside in prices.
Dalian corn futures were higher. Some feel that that CH may be in a 5.60-5.90 range. Dry SA weather could push to 6.25-6.50. Focus is now on South America weather and demand for US exports. Some estimate US Feb-May total corn demand record high led by ethanol and an increase in exports. Analyst est US carryout near 1,200. 2022/23 carryout 1,540. This could limit the upside in prices until more is known about US 2022 weather and US planted acres.
WH and KWH continues to find resistance near 8.00. As expected in their December report, USDA raised Russia, Australia and Canada crops. USDA failed to increase trade. Some feel final trade to increase 5-6 mmt. Bulls look for higher Q1 wheat prices on increase demand and tighter World exporters supplies. Dry US 2022 weather could also raise futures. Analyst est US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 650 vs USDA 598. 2022 US wheat acres near 49.0, crop 2,050.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
