MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. SH is down 1 cent and near 12.62. SMH is higher and near 377.2. BOH is near 51.61. CH is down 1 cent and near 5.89. WH is down 9 cents and near 7.73. KWH is down 9 cents and near 8.02. MWZ is down 4 cents and near 10.16.
US stocks are mixed in front of US Fed comments. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and sugar are lower.
Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil, rapeoil, soyoil lower. Corn higher. Soyoil lowest since August.
US dry. HRW fires concern. Russia cold next week. Argentina rains. S Brazil rains this week. Friday/Saturday US Midwest suggest similar severe weather pattern as last Friday tornadoes.
Talk of higher US 2021 soybean supplies offers resistance. SH value near 12.30. SMH higher on tight US domestic supplies. Futures overprices. BOH lower. Too much supply. La Nina weather adds uncertainty to South America crops. Early Brazil harvest negative. Trade est US 2022 soybean crop 120 mmt vs 114 ly. 2023 123. Brazil crop 145 vs 138.
Brazil 1st corn crop concerns due to La Nina. Corn futures may be overvalued to Crude oil prices. Seasonally corn futures trend higher from here to early next year. Ethanol demand supportive. Trade estimates US 2022 corn crop 382 mmt vs 358 ly, Brazil 121 vs 87, Argentina 54 vs 50.
Wheat futures have dropped after USDA raised World supply esp Australia, Canada, EU, Russia. Dry US south plains offers support for 2022. US winter wheat rating below average. WH, KWH and MWH lower on continued long liquidation. US south plains dry. Australia wheat futures lower on talk of higher than expected harvest yields. Russia in line for new tender business. Daily export tax $95. Jan Russia export tax $100. Trade estimates World 2022 wheat crop 798 mmt vs 778 ly, Canada 31 vs 21, US 56 vs 44.
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