Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 5 cents and near 12.83. SMH is near 377.1. BOH is near 52.95. CH is down 5 cents and near 5.88. WH is down 11 cents and near 7.63. KWH is down 11 cents and near 7.98. MWZ is down 11 cents and near 10.10. OH is down 34 cents and near 6.68.
Fear of new Omicron lockdowns and funds unwilling to add to longs before the holidays despite dry South America and US plains weather is weighing on all commodities. Crude, coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton, silver and copper are lower. US stocks are lower. S&P is now below the 20 and 50 day moving average. Next support 4,506. GSI commodity Index dropped due to higher US Dollar and new hawkish US Central Bank policy. One US Democrats no vote delays Biden BBB social stimulus bill until 2022.
South Brazil 1st corn crop is pollinating under stress. Argentina will be mostly dry with temps near 100F. 43 pct of South America crops affected. Some est Brazil soybean crop near 139 mmt vs USDA 144. Argentina will cap 2022 corn exports at 41.6 mmt and wheat 12.5 to fight inflation. Early Brazil soybean harvest limits gains in SH.
Russia wheat quota of 8 mmt Feb 15-Jun 30. This suggest exports at 31 mmt vs USDA 36. WH, KWH and MWH are lower on Omicron virus spread and concern over lower demand. Russia new export tax suggest Jan fob prices near $375-400 vs today price of $335. Dry US weather is supportive.
SH down with most commodities. BOH also lower. Dalian soybean higher; soymeal, soyoil and palmoil are lower. Dry South America forecast and strong US crush demand is supportive. C IL and W IA soybean processors bids +15/20 vs 5 year average of -45. US soybean gulf basis +1.00 highest since August, 2016. Brage freight higher and weighs on bid to farmers along US river waterways. US waterways water levels lower.
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