Global Ag News for Sept 4.24

TOP HEADLINES

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in August: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 100 points in Aug. from 113 in July, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component declined by 17 points from July
• Future expectations down by 11 points
• “Weakening farm income prospects weighed on farmer sentiment as the outlook for a bountiful fall harvest were more than offset by declining crop prices,” according to the report’s authors James Mintert and Michael Langemeier

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 7 1/2; Soymeal down $2.00; Soyoil down 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 in SRW, up 13 1/4 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/2; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal up $5.80; Soyoil down 1.15.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 16 3/4 in SRW, up 13 1/4 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/2; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal up $5.80; Soyoil down 1.15.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.2% in SRW, down 11.6% in HRW, down 19.8% in HRS; Corn is down 18.5%; Soybeans down 23.7%; Soymeal down 18.0%; Soyoil down 12.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 29 yuan; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil down 22; Palm oil down 82; Corn up 9 — Malaysian Palm is down 43.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 43 ringgit (-1.09%) at 3888.

 

There were changes in registrations (-292 SRW Wheat, 69 Corn, 220 Soybeans, -21 Soyoil, 100 Soymeal). Registration total: 132 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 84 Corn; 230 Soybeans; 394 Soyoil; 100 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 3 were: SRW Wheat down 6,508 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,356, Corn down 1,764, Soybeans down 1,652, Soymeal down 3,596, Soyoil down 1,734.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers far south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday.

 

Argentina:  Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, above normal west and below normal east Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Thursday.

 

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers south Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal north and below normal south Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

 

Midwest:   Isolated showers north Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday. East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

 

The player sheet for Sept. 3 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 15,000 corn, buyers of 11,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in the 2024/25 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Tuesday for up to 120,000 tons
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 101,700 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Wednesday
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in an international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy up to 350,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $545 a ton cost and freight (c&f) for rice expected to be sourced from Myanmar
• CORN PURCHASE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought at least 30,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from either Argentina or Brazil in international tenders last week
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in Thailand is believed last week to have purchased around 120,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from the Black Sea region
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 87,660 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on Sept. 5.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat

 

 

 

 TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 65% G/E, Soybeans 65%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 65% G/E vs 65% last week, and 53% a year ago
• Soybeans 65% G/E vs 67% last week, and 53% a year ago
• Winter wheat planted 2% vs 1% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 70% G/E vs 51% last week, and 68% a year ago
• Cotton 44% G/E vs 40% last week, and 31% a year ago
• Sorghum 50% G/E vs 48% last week, and 44% a year ago

 

US Soybean Crushings at 193M Bushels in July: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 4.7% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 5.7% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 6% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 473.5M Bu in July

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 4% higher than in July 2023
• DDGS production rose to 2m tons

 

US Inspected 965k Tons of Corn for Export, 497k of Soybeans

In week ending Aug. 29, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 497k tons vs 420k the previous wk, 408k a yr ago
• Corn: 965k tons vs 918k the previous wk, 483k a yr ago
• Wheat: 578k tons vs 549k the previous wk, 318k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Aug. 29

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Aug. 29 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 194k tons of the 496k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 5.63 Million Tns In September – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 5.63 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.67 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 5.98 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN ABOVE 89 MILLION TNS IN 2024 THROUGH SEPTEMBER, FROM TOTAL EXPECTED FOR THE YEAR OF 99 MILLION TONS – ANEC

 

EU Soft Wheat Exports Fall 23% Y/Y in Season to Sept. 1

EU soft wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 4.38m tons as of Sept. 1, compared with 5.66m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 577k tons, Egypt with 566k tons, and Morocco with 390k tons
• Barley exports were 1.32m tons, down 27% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 3.53m tons, up 21% y/y

 

Heat Wave Adds to Concern Over Brazil’s Crop Areas: Climatempo

Above-average temperatures are expected through Sept. 12 for some areas that produce coffee, sugar and soybeans, Dayane Figueiredo, a Climatempo meteorologist, says in interview.

• Heat seen for soybeans areas in Mato Grosso, sugar cane and coffee producing areas in the state of Sao Paulo, as well as some arabica coffee regions in Minas Gerais state
• That follows above-average temperatures seen since the start of Brazil’s winter in June
  • Yields for sugar cane and coffee crops could fall next year as those perennial crops are suffering with stress from heat and drought
  • Sao Paulo forecast to see some rain in early October, which would improve soil humidity and bring some relief to sugar cane
• Key soybean areas in Mato Grosso and Goias to still face dryness, with rains expected for the second half of October
  • Local regulations in Brazil allow Mato Grosso farmers to start planting in September, but weather conditions could hinder crop development

 

Malaysia Palm Oil Reserves to Hit Six-Month High on Poor Exports

• Inventory rose 7.5% in August from month earlier, survey shows
• Overseas sales fell 11% last month after surging 40% in July

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably climbed to their highest level since February as production in the world’s second-largest grower increased and exports slumped.

Inventories advanced 7.5% from a month earlier to 1.86 million tons in August, according to the median of 12 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of plantation executives, traders and analysts. That compared with a decline in July, following three months of gains.

A higher stockpile outlook will be bearish for the market, said Sathia Varqa, senior analyst at Fast Markets Palm Oil Analytics. Rising palm production, a stronger ringgit and soybean harvests in the US will keep pressure on prices of the tropical oil, he said.

Crude palm oil production likely rose 3.3% to 1.90 million tons, the highest since October, according to the survey. Exports dropped about 11% to 1.50 million tons, after surging 40% in July.

Benchmark palm oil futures in Kuala Lumpur fell 1% to 3,893 ringgit ($896) a ton by the midday break in Kuala Lumpur, and headed for their lowest level in almost two weeks.

Prices are expected to hover in a range of 3,845 ringgit and 4,000 ringgit before the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s official data on Sept 10, said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental.

More from the survey:

• Stockpile estimates ranged between 1.76 million and 1.98 million tons, while production was seen between 1.84 million and 1.94 million tons
• Export forecasts were in a range of 1.40 million and 1.55 million tons
• Imports are seen at 10,000 tons, against 10,483 tons in July
• Local consumption is likely to be in the band of 250,000 tons and 340,000 tons

 

Ethanol push turns India into corn importer, shaking up global market

• Ethanol demand lifts Indian corn prices to record high
• Indian corn exports dip, imports seen rising to record 1 mln T
• Poultry industry seeks duty-free imports, GM corn
• Importers tap Myanmar, Ukraine for non-GM corn

A push by India to make more corn-based ethanol has turned Asia’s top corn exporter into a net importer for the first time in decades, squeezing local poultry producers and scrambling global supply chains.

The jump in import demand comes after India in January hiked the procurement price of ethanol made from corn to drive a shift away from sugarcane-based ethanol for blending in gasoline.

With the government promoting ethanol in gasoline to reduce carbon emissions and trying to ensure ample supply of cheap sugar in the world’s biggest market for the sweetener, India appears set to become a permanent net importer of corn.

The prospect of India ramping up corn imports is likely to support global prices Cv1 which are trading near four-year lows.

Crushed by soaring feed costs as local corn prices rise far above global benchmarks, India’s poultry producers want the government to remove duties on imports and lift its ban on genetically modified (GM) corn. The prohibition severely limits their buying options.

India usually exports 2 million to 4 million metric tons of corn, but in 2024, exports are expected to drop to 450,000 tons while the country is set to import a record 1 million tons, mainly from Myanmar and Ukraine, which grow non-GM corn, traders estimate.

Traditionally, the poultry and starch industries absorbed most of India’s corn production of around 36 million tons.

Last year, however, ethanol distilleries started using corn, and their demand grew this year after the government abruptly curbed the use of sugarcane for fuel following a drought. That led to a shortfall of 5 million tons, an official with the All India Poultry Breeders Association said.

“Now, the poultry and starch industries are battling with distilleries to get their share of supplies, and this fight is keeping prices high,” said Nitin Gupta, senior vice president of Olam Agri India.

Olam estimates ethanol distilleries will need 6 million to 7 million tons of corn annually, demand that Gupta said can only be met with imports.

Traditional export markets such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Malaysia, which bought corn from India because of its prompt availability, are now compelled to source supplies from South America and the United States.

“Vietnam has cut down its imports of corn from India recently because India’s prices are too high,” said a Ho Chi Minh City-based trader.

 

China Just Had Its Hottest Summer, But Heat Threat Isn’t Over

• Average temperature highest in figures going back to 1961
• Rainfall also at record high, causing flooding and landslides

China just sweltered through its hottest summer on record — damaging crops from corn to soybeans and pressuring the power grid — but the risks from the extreme heat aren’t over yet.

The average temperature between June 1 and Aug. 31 was 22.3C (72.1F), the highest since China began compiling the data in 1961, the National Climate Center said in a statement on Tuesday. Heat waves arrived earlier than usual this year, and more than a fifth of China’s cities and counties saw the mercury rise above 40C.

The statement was later removed from the center’s official social media feed.

The country’s scorching summer came as many nations try to adapt to a world where climate change is making extreme heat far more common. The two hottest days on Earth were both recorded in July. China also saw the heaviest rainfall on record over summer, which led to flooding and landslides that caused hundreds of deaths.

Heat waves affected China’s wheat crop over the summer and delayed corn planting in the north, while the unusually wet weather stunted corn and soybean crops in the northeast.

But while summer has ended, the threat from extreme weather hasn’t. More heavy rain is expected over the next few days in the northeastern grains basket, raising the risk of sodden fields and damaged crops, the National Meteorological Center said in a report on Monday.

 

Rain lifts Rhine river levels in Germany but ships still part loaded

Rain has raised water levels on the Rhine in Germany but most of the river remains too shallow for cargo vessels to sail fully loaded, commodity traders said on Wednesday, following a bout of dry weather in August.

Ship operators imposed surcharges on freight rates to compensate for vessels sailing partly empty, increasing costs for cargo owners.

Shallow water continues to hinder shipping on most of the Rhine in Germany including Duisburg, Cologne and the chokepoint of Kaub, but vessels are able to take on larger loads, traders said.

More rain is forecast in river catchment areas on Wednesday and the coming days and this is expected to raise the river to levels allowing normal shipping later this week or early next week, they said.

The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities such as grains, minerals, ores, chemicals, ores, coal and oil products, including heating oil.

German companies faced supply bottlenecks and production problems in summer 2022 after a drought and heat-wave led to unusually low water levels on the river.

But repeated rain earlier this summer had kept Rhine water levels high, enabling shipping to mostly operate normally until late August.

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.