Global Ag News for Sept 24.24

TOP HEADLINES

Vancouver Port Strike Would Hit Canada Farmers at Harvest: Group

An impending port strike in Vancouver would have a “devastating impact” on Canadian farmers who are in the midst of harvest, the Grain Growers of Canada said in a statement Monday.

• A strike at the port would halt some 100,000 metric tons of crop deliveries daily, with Vancouver handling more than half of all of the grain produced in the country, according to the group
  • “Grain farmers in the prairies rely heavily on the Port of Vancouver to handle and export the majority of the grain they grow”
• The Grain Workers Union over the weekend announced that workers would walk off the job Tuesday with the Local 333 making little progress in negotiations on a new contract, according to a letter posted on Facebook
  • The union didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment Monday

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/2 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 4 1/4; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil up 0.42.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 3/4 in SRW, up 10 1/4 in HRW, up 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 10 1/4; Soybeans up 26 1/4; Soymeal up $9.50; Soyoil up 0.69.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 31 1/2 in SRW, up 11 3/4 in HRW, up 17 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 12 1/2; Soybeans up 43 1/2; Soymeal up $17.30; Soyoil up 0.25.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.6% in SRW, down 10.6% in HRW, down 14.9% in HRS; Corn is down 12.6%; Soybeans down 19.7%; Soymeal down 15.4%; Soyoil down 10.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 12 yuan; Soymeal up 47; Soyoil up 78; Palm oil up 62; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 12.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 12 ringgit (+0.30%) at 3989.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 353 Soyoil; 126 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 23 were: SRW Wheat up 2,678 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,017, Corn down 2,915, Soybeans up 1,268, Soymeal up 4,661, Soyoil down 7,857.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers far south through Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

 

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

 

Northern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

 

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers east Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers east Saturday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

 

Midwest: West: Isolated showers Tuesday, south Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday. East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Sept. 23 had funds: net buyers of 7,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 25,000 corn, buyers of 21,500 soybeans, buyers of 9,500 soymeal, and buyers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 165,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil in an international tender for up to 80,000 metric tons which closed on Wednesday.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to buy at least 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog buy about 450,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $547.00 a ton cost and freight (c&f) for rice expected to be sourced from either Vietnam or Myanmar.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil or South Africa.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 112,580 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 65% G/E, Soybeans 64%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 65% G/E vs 65% last week, and 53% a year ago
• Soybeans 64% G/E vs 64% last week, and 50% a year ago
• Winter wheat planted 25% vs 14% last week, and 23% a year ago
• Winter wheat emerged 4% vs 6% a year ago
• Corn harvest 14% vs 9% last week, and 13% a year ago
• Soybeans harvested 13% vs 6% last week, and 10% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 96% G/E vs 92% last week, and 95% a year ago
• Cotton 37% G/E vs 39% last week, and 30% a year ago
• Cotton harvested 14% vs 10% last week, and 12% a year ago
• Sorghum 44% G/E vs 44% last week, and 42% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.103m Tons of Corn for Export, 485k of Soybeans

In week ending Sept. 19, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,103k tons vs 569k the previous wk, 711k a yr ago
• Wheat: 711k tons vs 589k the previous wk, 486k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 485k tons vs 473k the previous wk, 508k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Sept. 19

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Sept. 19 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 171k tons of the 485k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Ecuador led in wheat

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: Analysts See an Expansion in the US Hog Herd

Sept. 1 hog inventory seen rising to 76.46m head from 76.13m head in the same period last year, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

• That would be the biggest Sept. 1 hog herd since 2020
• Breeding inventory seen down 2.1% y/y, and market hogs seen rising 0.7% y/y
• The June-Aug pig crop seen falling by 0.8% y/y to 35m head
• June-Aug farrowing seen falling by 1.9% y/y

 

Brazil Soy-Processing Capacity to Rise 4.5% in 2024: Abiove

Brazil’s soybean crushing capacity raised to 72.3 million tons this year, industry group says in a statement.

• Number of soy-processing companies are now at 67, up from 63 last year
• Operating crushing plants increased by 6.6% this year, to 113 units
• Soy processing capacity in Brazil’s center-west region increases to 95,964 tons a day, accounting for 44% of country’s total capacity
• Industry to invest 5.8 billion reais ($1 billion) over the next 12 months, with five new crushing plants and expansion of another five facilities expected
  • Plants will likely raise daily soy crushing capacity by 8.8%

 

Russia May Adjust 2024 Grain Crop Forecast, Ministry Says: IFX

Russian regions should submit to the Agriculture Ministry their final estimates of expected harvest by the end of this week, Interfax reports, citing the ministry.

• Ministry doesn’t rule out that it will then adjust the grain harvest forecast
• Russia had harvested 105.9m tons of grain, including 77.7m tons of wheat
• NOTE: Sept. 11, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut reiterated 2024 grain harvest forecast at 132m tons
• NOTE: Sept. 17, SovEcon Revises Up 2024 Russian Wheat Forecast to 82.9m Tons

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Planting 0.9% Done as of Sept. 19: AgRural

Compares with 0.1% a week earlier and 1.9% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Planting is being led by Parana state, which is responsible for almost all of the area already sown in the country
  • In Mato Grosso, dry and hot weather is still predominant, keeping producers waiting for more favorable conditions for sowing
• Summer corn planting is 26% done in Brazil Center-South, compared with 19% a week earlier and 25% a year before

 

Brazil Should Become Exporter of Clean Jet Fuel by 2030: Airbus

Feedstock-based aviation fuel production in Brazil has potential to reach around 50 billion liters (13.2 billion gallons) by 2030, Airbus Brazil President Gilberto Peralta says during an event in Sao Paulo.

• Estimated volume to be confirmed by a study carried out by the company in partnership with Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Peralta says
  • Study will be presented soon by Airbus to Brazil’s government
• Brazil consumed 7.5 billion liters of all types of jet fuel in 2023, Peralta said
• US to produce 40 billion liters to 50 billion liters of Sustainable Aviation Fuel by 2030
  • It will need to import green jet fuel as it currently uses approximately 120 billion liters of all types of jet fuel yearly

 

Kazakhstan Sees Grain Harvest of At Least 20m Tons This Year

Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov ordered to seek new markets for grain sales in the EU, northern Africa and South East Asia in addition to traditional exports destinations taking into account grain harvest expectations of the agriculture ministry.

• Kazakhstan produced 16.7m tons of grain after harvesting almost 68% of the planted area, according to the Prime Minister’s press office
  • At this time last year, Kazakhstan harvested 42.8% of planted area
• Kazakh railways exported 1m tons of grain in August and the first half of Sept. to free up spaces at elevators for new harvest

 

EU Corn, Sunflower Yields Forecast Cut 3% on Bad Weather: MARS

The European Union’s yield forecasts for both corn and sunflowers were revised down by 3% due to a worsened outlook for summer crops in southern-central and eastern Europe, according to the most recent estimate from the bloc’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit on Monday.

• In Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Austria the extremely high temperatures were worsened by a rain deficit
• Predominantly favorable weather conditions in western Europe led to an upward revision of the yield forecasts of the main crops produced there, such as potatoes, sugar beets and green maize
• Most EU rice-producing districts have performed well, and present an above-average yield outlook

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Price gap increases

While the wheat harvest progresses in Brazil and new batches are being offered, the imported product has also been entering the market – it is worth noting that imports were significant in previous months. As a result, Cepea has been verifying a significant gap between values offered by sellers and purchasers.

According to data from Cepea, between September 13 and 20, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 2.4% in Santa Catarina, while they remained stable in Paraná and in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations dropped 2.4% in Paraná, 0.62% in São Paulo, 1% in Santa Catarina and 0.59% in Rio Grande do Sul. Dollar quotations decreased 0.81% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.519 on September 20. This scenario presses down the import parity and favors commodities’ price drops in the domestic market.

CROPS – Players continue focused on crop activities. The return of rains in the South favors the crops development, but can affect the final stage of some plants.

Data from Seab/Deral indicate that, up to September 16, 34% of the area in Paraná had been harvested. In Rio Grande do Sul, Emater/RS-Ascar released a report on Sept. 19 indicating that the recent rainfall favored soil conditions, since most part of crops need humidity at the current stage. In Santa Catarina, Epagri/Cepea says that 95% of crops were at good conditions up to late August.

BYPRODUCTS – Comparing the period from September 16-20 with the previous (Sept. 9-13), values of wheat bran in bags upped 0.41% and 1.49% for the product in bulk.

 

US Egg Production Fell 2.8% in August From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 9.08b eggs in August vs 9.34b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs fell 3.2% y/y to 7.77b
• Hatching eggs down 0% to 1.3b

 

 

 

 

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