Global Ag News for Oct 22nd

NOAA Expects U.S. Southwest Drought to Continue

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 12 1/2 in HRW, up 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 4 1/4; Soymeal up $0.25; Soyoil up 0.05.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 15 1/2 in SRW, up 16 1/2 in HRW, up 27 in HRS; Corn is up 10 3/4; Soybeans up 11 1/2; Soymeal up $0.99; Soyoil up 1.34. For the month to date wheat prices are up 24 in SRW, up 28 1/2 in HRW, up 83 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 27 3/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil up 3.94.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 62 yuan ; Soymeal up 22; Soyoil down 392; Palm oil down 452; Corn down 11 — Malasyian Palm is down 59. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 59 ringgit (-1.19%) at 4909.

There were changes in registrations (-1,165 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 21 were: SRW Wheat up 1,721 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,235, Corn up 7,814, Soybeans up 6,955, Soymeal down 2,523, Soyoil down 2,005.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below normal through Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday. East: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

The player sheet for Oct. 21 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 8,000 corn, sellers of 11,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 130,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally purchased an estimated 300,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender for the same volume which closed on Thursday, traders said.
• WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought a total of 81,318 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada on Thursday in a regular tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase 100,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat and 100,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency has issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat

 U.S. Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

According to data on the USDA’s website.

• China bought 1.88m tons of the 2.88m tons of soybeans sold in the week
• Countries listed as “unknown” led in corn purchases, Nigeria led in wheat

U.S. Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

U.S. export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 14, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 10.2k tons of the 22.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

Mosaic Warns Farmers That High Fertilizer Prices Are Set to Stay

• There’s no room for price decline this year, Brazil VP says
• Farmers need to make orders now to guarantee supply in 2022

One of the world’s largest fertilizer companies has a message for farmers: prices of crop nutrients will remain high and putting in orders quickly is key to ensuring supplies in 2022.

About 40% of the fertilizers expected to be used in Brazil’s winter crops — especially corn and cotton — haven’t been bought yet, while coffee farmers haven’t bought about 30% of the nutrients that should be applied by the end of the year. The agricultural superpower, the top exporter of sugar and coffee and No. 2 supplier of corn, needs to buy around 80% of its fertilizer requirements.

Fertilizer deliveries in Brazil are expected to reach a record high of about 45 million metric tons this year, up 11% from last year. Rising demand in the South American nation and other agriculture producers such China and India have bolstered global prices during the past year. Now, factors such as sanctions against Belarus’s state-owned potash producer and China’s decision to limit exports are supporting the boom, he said.

Still, fertilizer sales are slower than usual for the coming 2022-23 season as surging fertilizer costs have reduced farmers’ margins compared to the two previous seasons. But Brazilians are still making profits from crop sales.

French Soft-Wheat Planting Even With Last Year’s Pace: AgriMer

Soft-wheat planting was 40% complete in France as of Oct. 18, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• Compares with 13% the prior week and 40% last year
• Winter-barley planting was 59% complete
  • Compares with 24% the prior week and 54% last year
• French corn crop was 32% harvested
  • Compares with 15% the prior week and 75% at the same time last year

Russian Wheat-Export Tax to Rise to $67/Ton for Next Week

Russia’s wheat export customs duty will increase to $67/ton next week, from $61.30, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website. NOTE: The rates are set weekly and take effect three working days after publication

IGC raises forecast for 2021/22 global corn crop

The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for the 2021/22 global corn crop, predominately reflecting an improved outlook for the United States.

In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body increased its 2021/22 world corn (maize) crop outlook by 1 million tonnes to 1.210 billion tonnes.

The IGC put the U.S. corn crop at 381.5 million tonnes, up from a previous projection of 380.3 million tonnes and in line with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s current forecast.

Global wheat production in the 2021/22 season was seen at 781 million tonnes, unchanged from last month’s forecast, while the IGC also maintained its forecast for global soybean production in 2021/22 at 380 million tonnes.

Ukraine 2021 grain harvest 76.5% complete at 56.3 mln T

Ukrainian farms have harvested 56.3 million tonnes of grain from 76.5% of its sowing area, with the yield averaging 4.62 tonnes per hectare, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.

The volume includes 32.3 million tonnes of wheat, 9.6 million tonnes of barley, 11.2 million tonnes of corn and small volumes of other grains, the ministry said.

Favourable weather could help Ukraine to harvest a record 80.3 million tonnes of grain this year, up from 65 million tonnes in 2020, the ministry has said.

Indonesia Revises Jan.-Sept. Biodiesel Consumption to 6.64m KL

Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil grower, consumed about 6.64 million kiloliters in the first nine months of 2021, according to presentation slides from the energy ministry’s director general for new and renewable energy.

Argentine Corn Planted Estimate Oct. 21: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• Corn 2021-22 planting 26.3% complete vs 23.2% in the previous week
• Planting est. maintained at 7.1m ha

NOAA expects U.S. Southwest drought to continue or worsen this winter

A harsh drought is expected to continue or worsen across parts of the U.S. West and northern Plains this winter, including in central and southern California, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) winter outlook.

NOAA, however, expects the drought to lessen in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and northern California amid an emerging La Nina phenomenon, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

A drought spanning much of western North America has damaged crops from apples to wheat, and has cooked cattle grazing pastures, weakened bee colonies and fueled concerns about rising food prices.

Nearly the entire U.S. West is in some level of drought, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center, with almost half of major agricultural state California under exceptional drought, the most severe category.

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 38% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers increased in the week ending Oct. 16 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 22% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 54% w/w