Global Ag News for Oct 21.24

TOP HEADLINES

China’s rapeseed meal contract drops after Canada plans some relief from EV tariffs

China’s rapeseed meal futures sunk 4.6% on Monday on hopes that Beijing would ease an anti-dumping probe on imports of Canadian rapeseed after Ottawa said it would grant firms temporary relief from tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

The world’s biggest canola importer has disrupted the market by announcing the anti-dumping investigation, a move seen as retaliation against Canada’s 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and other products.

Canada, which imposed the tariffs starting Oct. 1, on Friday announced measures for Canadian firms to request a temporary remission of the tariffs that include steel and aluminium products.

China’s most active rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell to 2,308 yuan ($324.99) per metric ton on Monday, its lowest in nearly seven weeks.

The market is speculating that Canada’s relief measures might help ease trade tensions between the two countries and encourage China to delay its anti-dumping investigation or ease its countermeasures, said Liu Jinlu, agriculture researcher at Guoyuan Futures.

“The news has erased an accumulation of bullishness in the vegetable meal and oil market,” she said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $1.80; Soyoil up 0.33.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 10 1/2 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 18 1/2; Soymeal up $2.60; Soyoil up 0.27.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 8 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 17 3/4; Soybeans down 79 3/4; Soymeal down $24.20; Soyoil down 1.16.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.5% in SRW, down 9.1% in HRW, down 14.7% in HRS; Corn is down 13.7%; Soybeans down 24.4%; Soymeal down 17.6%; Soyoil down 11.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 7 yuan; Soymeal up 13; Soyoil down 76; Palm oil down 126; Corn down 11 — Malaysian Palm is up 47.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 47 ringgit (+1.10%) at 4302.

There were changes in registrations (-30 Soymeal). Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 146 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 18 were: SRW Wheat up 10,511 contracts, HRW Wheat up 7,094, Corn up 1,277, Soybeans down 4,930, Soymeal down 3,455, Soyoil down 2,934.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil. Producers have not yet been able to cover the gap from late planting of soybeans yet and they only have about 10 days left before the window closes. Rainfall has been better farther south, increasing planting and offering good weather for establishment there.

 

Argentina: An overall wetter pattern lately has reduced drought and brought moisture for filling wheat and corn establishment. There is still drought out there though. Another system will move through Monday through Wednesday with widespread rainfall that should also be beneficial. The pattern may get drier afterward though. Soybean planting does not start until November, but is coming up quickly. It will need more rainfall to continue reducing drought there as well.

 

Northern Plains: Some showers went through over the weekend but were isolated and mostly light. A front moving through Monday and Tuesday could bring some showers to northern areas, otherwise dry conditions continue as drought keeps building. Some windy conditions at times could increase the fire risk again this week as well.

 

Central/Southern Plains: An upper-level low in the Four Corners brought showers to the southwestern Plains over the weekend, but mostly to the High Plains and away from winter wheat areas. The low will move through the region on Monday with a few showers, but likely not heavy enough to build soil moisture, reduce drought, or disrupt the remaining harvest.

 

Midwest: It was mostly dry over the weekend with rising temperatures moving in. A small disturbance will move through Tuesday with a few showers. A front across the north could bring a few showers in, and another disturbance will move through on Thursday and Friday with a few showers as well. Though some showers will fall, it should not be heavy enough to build soil moisture, reduce drought, or disrupt harvest.

 

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River have become very low again, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next ten days, restrictions could last a long time.

 

Europe: Showers continued in the northwest and Italy over the weekend, unfavorably wet in some areas. After a few mostly dry days, another system will move into western areas with more unneeded showers. Eastern areas have been able to recover from a wet period a couple of weeks again and some areas would like to see rain there for winter wheat establishment.

 

Black Sea: A system spinning in the Black Sea brought some showers to eastern Ukraine and western Russia over the last week. However, rainfall deficits are large and the window for winter wheat has essentially closed with frosts and freezes becoming more likely from now on. Overall drier conditions are in the forecast for the next two weeks with larger drops in temperatures. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

 

Australia: Very little rain fell over the weekend. A front will move through eastern areas Wednesday and Thursday, but with very little precipitation forecast there too. The same goes with another system this weekend. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 18 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender on Friday.
• CORN, SOYBEAN, SOYOIL SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 125,000 metric tons of U.S. corn and 292,800 tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year. The agency also confirmed 21,000 tons in U.S. soyoil sales to Mexico for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea is believed to have purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender

 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of feed barley
• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 metric tons of feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 1.7M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 2.23M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Oct. 10.

• Corn sales rose to 2,226k tons vs 1,222k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 504k tons vs 439k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 1,703k tons vs 1,256k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following  shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 10, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 1000k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Unknown Buyers with 903k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 135k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 10, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 8.9k tons of the 38.9k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Brazil 2024-25 Soybean Crop Seen at 167.1m Tons: Datagro

Production estimate cut from 169 million tons in previous forecast in September, consulting firm Datagro said in report.

 

Brazil’s 2025 Soybean Exports Seen At 107 Million Tns – Safras

BRAZIL’S 2025 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 107 MILLION TNS VERSUS 97 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS YEAR

BRAZIL’S 2025 SOYBEAN CRUSHING SEEN AT 55.5 MILLION TNS VERSUS 54.6 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS YEAR

BRAZIL’S 2025 SOY MEAL OUTPUT SEEN AT 42.7 MILLION TNS, UP 2% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR

 

China September soy imports from US up 13-fold Y/Y

China’s soybean imports from the United States surged 13-fold in September from a year earlier, government data showed on Sunday, rising for the sixth consecutive month.

The world’s largest soybean buyer imported 1.71 million metric tons of soybeans from the United States last month, up from 132,680 tons a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs.

However, import volumes from the U.S. remain much smaller than from top producer Brazil.

Brazilian soybeans made up most of the near record 11.37 million tons of the oilseed that arrived in China in September as good crushing margins encouraged buying.

September soybean arrivals from Brazil rose 23% compared to the same month a year ago to 8.45 million tons.

For the January-September period, total shipments from Brazil rose 13% from the same period last year to 62.24 million tons. Arrivals from the U.S. fell 15% for the period to 14.55 million metric tons.

Brazil supplied 226,307 tons of corn to China last month, 37% of the total arrivals.

 

China will import 100,000 tonnes of grain from Kazakhstan

Chinese companies have reached preliminary agreement with Kazakhstan on the import of 100,000 tonnes of grain and 100,000 tonnes of oilseeds in the near future, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture said in a press release. The agreement was reached on Friday in Astana during a meeting between Kazakh Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov and…

ASTANA. Oct 18 (Interfax-Kazakhstan) – Chinese companies have reached preliminary agreement with Kazakhstan on the import of 100,000 tonnes of grain and 100,000 tonnes of oilseeds in the near future, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture said in a press release.

The agreement was reached on Friday in Astana during a meeting between Kazakh Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov and President of China Grain Reserves Group Ltd. Deng Yiwu.

Kazakhstan’s Food Corporation was designated as the operator of grain exports to China, according to the press release.

 

Kazakhstan Grain Harvest Reaches Almost 26M Tons This Year

Kazakhstan also expects to harvest 3m metric tons of oilseeds, Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov tells China Grain Reserves Group Ltd. and other Chinese officials, according to the ministry’s website.

• Kazakhstan and China preliminarily agree to ship 100k tons of grain and 100k tons of oilseeds from the central Asian nation, resuming exports to China
  • Kazakhstan is ready to export as much as 2m tons of grain to China and increase that amount to 3m tons-4m tons, the statement adds
• NOTE: In early August Kazakhstan had issued a statement saying trade with China had stopped for an “unknown period,” because of a change in Beijing’s import rules.
• NOTE: As of late October 2023, Kazakhstan harvested 15.9m tons of grain from 97% of its planted area, the Agriculture Ministry said at the time

 

Ukraine’s Grain Harvest Hits 42.8M Tons to Top Last Year’s Pace

Ukraine’s grain and legumes harvest totaled 42.8m tons as of Friday, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• That compares with 39.2m tons harvested by Oct. 20 last year
• The growth was driven mostly by corn, which reached 13.2m tons, from 9.28m tons previously
• Wheat and barley harvesting was completed last month
• Other crops:
  • Farmers harvested 9.3m tons of sunflower seeds, compared with 10.2m tons a year earlier
  • The soybean harvest was 5.2m tons to date, compared with 4.2m tons
  • The sugar-beet harvest was 6.5m tons from 5.9m tons last year

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Record global supply and high stocks press down quotations

Cepea, 18 – Soybean prices dropped this week in both the United States and Brazil, due to the optimism regarding the 2024/25 world crop. Expectations of a demand decrease from China (major soy importer) reinforced the downward trend.

Data released this month by the USDA indicate that the 2024/25 global production is likely to total 428.9 million tons, 8.6% up compared to that in 2023/24. World crushing activities are projected at 346.3 million tons, 4.8% more than in the season before. Stocks may hit the record of 134.6 million tons.

As for Brazil, the 2024/25 area is expected to hit the record of 47.3 million hectares, according to data from Conab and USDA. The production is forecast at 166 million tons (Conab) and at 169 million tons (USDA).

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) dropped 0.7% from October 10-17, closing at BRL 140.36 per 60-kg bag. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 0.4% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 138.85 per 60-kg bag on Oct. 17.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 1% from Oct. 10-17 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers), but decreased 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The dollar increased 1.5% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.667 on October 17.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean meal prices downed 0.1% from Oct. 10-17. As for soy oil, on the other hand, quotations moved up 0.4% between Oct. 10 and 17, at BRL 6,664.60 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Oct. 17.

CROPS – Conab indicates that planting activities reached 9.1% in Brazil up to Oct. 13, below the 19% observed one year ago.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Index increases 6% and is close to BRL 70 per bag

The upward trend for corn prices continues firm, despite the progress of the summer crop planting and the rainfall forecast in many producing areas. Price rises are related to the fact that sellers are away from closing trades and to the need of some purchasers to replenish inventories.

Many sellers are unwilling to trade large amounts in the spot market, since they expect more increases, focused on recent price rises and on the demand increase. Therefore, purchasers are more flexible regarding deals.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose 1.1% between October 10 and 17, closing at BRL 68.42 per 60-kilo bag on Oct. 17, close to BRL 70/bag, a level that was verified for the last time on January 9 this year. In the partial of this month (up to Oct. 17), the Index upped 6.4%.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values moved up 2.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) from Oct. 10-17.

ESTIMATES – Conab released a report indicating that the 2024/25 total production may amount 119.74 million tons, 3.5% more than in 2023/24.

As for the summer crop alone, despite the area decrease of 5.4%, productivity is likely to increase 4.6%, leading the production to total 22.72 million tons (-1.1% in relation to 2023/24). Concerning the second crop, Conab estimates increases of 1% for the area and of 3.8% for the productivity, resulting in a production of 94.63 million tons (+4.8%). The third crop is projected at 2.38 million tons (-4%).

In spite of the higher availability, Conab indicates that shipment may decrease 2 million tons compared to that estimated for this season, at 34 million tons. However, the consumption can move up roughly 3 million tons in the 2024/25 crop, at 87.03 million tons. As a result, 5 million corn tons would be left by January/26, lower than the 9.6 million observed in the average over the last five crops.

In global terms, the USDA indicates that the 2024/25 production may total 1.21 billion tons, and the consumption, 1.22 billion tons.

Data from Secex indicate that corn shipments totaled 2.52 million tons in the first nine producing days of October, accounting for 30% of the total exported in the entire same month last year. If the current daily pace continues (280 thousand tons per day), the volume may total 6.44 million tons this month. Anec, in turn, indicates that shipments are likely to amount 6.22 million tons in October.

Comparing Oct. 10 and 17, prices at the port of Paranaguá (PR) moved down 0.5%, while they increased 2.6% in Santos (SP).

 

Indonesia Aims to Expand Crop Areas to Papua for Food Security

Indonesia will seek to expand crop farming areas to the Papua region to help bolster the nation’s food self-sufficiency, recently appointed Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs Zulkifli Hasan says.

• Indonesia’s agriculture future is in Papua as farms in the main Java region have been shrinking, he says in speech at a handover ceremony
• Land in Papua, Indonesia’s easternmost province, is vast and not yet optimized, Hasan says
• Govt plans to expand rice planting by 2m hectares, and sugar cane by 600,000 hectares to 1m hectares

 

US Beef Production Up 3.8% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 524m pounds for the week ending Oct. 19 from 504m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 3.8% from a week ago to 608m head
• Pork production up 1.3% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 1.1%
• For the year, beef production is 0.7% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.6% above

 

 

 

 

 

 

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