Global Ag News for Oct 15.24

TOP HEADLINES

Train derailment creates latest supply chain hiccup for US-Mexico grain exports

Mexican rail consortium Ferromex and U.S. railroad company Union Pacific Corp said they have stopped issuing permits for some grain rail shipments moving through Eagle Pass, Texas, after a recent train derailment in Mexico closed the track.

The halt is a temporary measure until rail traffic gets cleared after the track reopened, Ferromex told Reuters in a statement Monday, adding that total volume of grain movement between Union Pacific and Ferromex will not be affected.

The disruption marks the latest in a string of grain freight rail backlogs at the border, particularly at El Paso and Eagle Pass, that have snarled agricultural supply chains between the U.S. and the top importer of its corn. It comes as U.S. farmers are harvesting massive corn and soybean crops.

Ferromex (FXE), which operates the largest railway in Mexico, notified Union Pacific about the derailment in Mexico on Saturday, according to Union Pacific. FXE told Reuters the track was closed up to 15 hours.

Union Pacific said it and Ferromex decided together to temporarily halt issuing permits for the active FXE embargos, given the high volume of agricultural freight and expected increased demand as the U.S. harvest is underway.

“This suspension is effective immediately and will remain in effect until the current train lineup is cleared and trains are able to launch upon release,” Union Pacific said in a statement to customers Saturday.

While Mexico is the top U.S. corn export market, it’s also become a key outlet this year for agricultural exporters looking to offset sluggish buying from China, a top commodity buyer. But rail capacity cannot keep up with the demand, said Juan Carlos Anaya, General Director of the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group.

“The infrastructure cannot be built overnight, nor can the machines, and that is causing this problem of having efficient logistics between the United States and Mexico,” Anaya said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 8 1/4; Soymeal down $2.40; Soyoil down 0.30.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 17 in SRW, down 15 3/4 in HRW, down 18 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9; Soybeans down 16 1/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil down 1.68.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 2 1/2 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 18 3/4; Soybeans down 69 1/4; Soymeal down $28.70; Soyoil down 1.71.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.3% in SRW, down 8.3% in HRW, down 13.6% in HRS; Corn is down 13.7%; Soybeans down 23.5%; Soymeal down 18.8%; Soyoil down 12.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 14 yuan; Soymeal up 14; Soyoil down 92; Palm oil down 132; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 43.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 43 ringgit (-1.00%) at 4270.

 

There were changes in registrations (50 Soymeal). Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 402 Soyoil; 226 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 14 were: SRW Wheat up 1,471 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,959, Corn up 24,449, Soybeans up 18,157, Soymeal up 9,061, Soyoil down 4,914.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers south Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday. Brazil Coffee/Citrus/Cane… Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal. Coffee/Citrus/Cane Forecast…. Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. 

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. 

Northern Plains: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures well above normal west and below normal east Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday. 

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east through Wednesday, near to well above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday. 

Midwest: West: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday. East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 14 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 17,500 corn, sellers of 8,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia bought 360,000 metric tonnes of wheat from Saudi producers abroad for arrival between January and March 2025, the GFSA state buying agency said on Monday.
• VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Sunday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival Jan 1-15, 2025. GASC said traders should submit bids for payment at sight with funding from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC). The deadline for offers is Oct. 15.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

NOPA September US soybean crush seen up, at 170.331 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely rebounded in September from a near-three-year low the prior month while soyoil stocks thinned to the lowest in almost a decade, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Tuesday.

NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all U.S. processed soybeans, were estimated to have crushed 170.331 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If realized, it would be up 7.8% from the August crush of 158.008 million bushels, which was the lowest for any month since September 2021. It would also be up 2.9% from September 2023 when processors crushed 165.456 million bushels, which is the current record for the month of September.

Processors are anticipating having an ample supply of soybeans to crush in the coming months as the U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting a record-large 2024 U.S. harvest.

Crush estimates for September ranged from 164.000 million to 177.000 million bushels, with a median of 170.400 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Tuesday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of Sept 30 were estimated at 1.083 billion lbs, based on estimates from seven analysts.

If the estimate is realized, it would be down 4.9% from 1.138 billion lbs at the end of August and the smallest end-of-month supply since December 2014. It would also be down 2.3% from the 1.108 billion lbs of oil held by NOPA members at the end of September last year.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 865 million to 1.200 billion lbs, with a median of 1.100 billion lbs.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Planting 8.2% Done as of Oct. 11: Safras

Sowing is behind schedule compared to the same period last year, when the number was 15.8%, according to an emailed report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• The previous week, the total sown was 4.1%
• Harvest is 36% completed in Parana area, 9% in Mato Grosso do Sul, 3% in Goias, 9% in Mato Grosso and 5% in Sao Paulo
• Corn planting for the 2024/25 summer harvest in the Center-South of Brazil reached 45.8% of the estimated area of ​​3.675 million hectares as of Oct. 11
• That compares with 51.5% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 46.7%

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Planting 8.2% Done as of Oct. 10: Agrural

Compares with 4.5% a week earlier and 17% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• The 8.2% rate is the lowest for this time of year since the 2020/21 crop
• Summer corn planting reached 42% of the estimated area for the Center-South of Brazil, compared to 37% in the previous week and and 41% a year ago
• Work progresses during the rainy periods in the southern states, where planting is nearing its final stages
• In other states, producers are waiting for higher rainfall to speed up the machinery

 

Kazakhstan Grain Harvest Reaches 25.2M Metric Tons This Year

As of today 98% of planted area has been harvested, Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov tells President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, according to statement on presidential website.

• Average grain yield is 1,550 kg/hectare
• NOTE: As of late October 2023, Kazakhstan’s crop reached 15.9m tons of grain after harvesting 97% of planted area, Agriculture Ministry said at the time

 

Ukraine’s Winter Crop Sowing Slightly Ahead of Last Year

Ukrainian farmers have so far planted winter crops across 4.75m hectares, according to the Agriculture Ministry’s data, up from 4.5m hectares this time last year.

• Total winter planting includes:
  • 3.3m hectares of winter wheat, compared with 3m hectares last year
  • 331,700 hectares of winter barley, up from 260,000 hectares last year
• Winter rapeseed was sown across 1m hectares, compared with 1.12m hectares last year

 

Argentina’s wheat, corn crops refreshed by weekend rains

Weekend showers brought relief to the parched wheat and corn crops in the north of Argentina’s agricultural heartland, the Rosario grains exchange said on Monday, after weeks in need of rain.

Argentina is the world’s third-largest exporter of corn and a top wheat supplier. However, both crops have been hit by the low levels of rainfall in the south and center regions of the Santa Fe province during the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring.

“The rains this long weekend put a stop to the fall in wheat yields and (allow farmers to) continue with corn planting,” the exchange said on X, adding that Santa Fe’s growing regions had received between 30 millimeters and 90 mm (1.2 and 3.5 inches) of precipitation.

Last week, the exchange had cut its wheat harvest estimate to 19.5 million metric tons due to lack of rain. Harvesting is set to kick off in the coming weeks.

Corn planting was also forced to pause last week due to the dry conditions, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.

More rain is expected in the short term, the Rosario exchange said on Monday.

“We hope that by the end of October we hit 100 mm, to begin accumulating water for the summer,” said Cristian Russo, the exchange’s head of agricultural estimates, in a report.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Harvesting progresses and presses values down

In spite of concerns related to low productivity, the progress of the harvesting in Southern Brazil has been pressing down wheat quotations. Sellers are starting to sell off stocks of 2023 and many of them are flexible regarding prices. Purchasers, in turn, are expecting the higher supply from the new wheat season, expecting lower values as a result.

Abroad, prices have been moving up, influenced by low soil moist, which concerns players about the progress of the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere. In Argentina, unfavorable weather conditions may affect the productive potential, and estimates have already been readjusted.

According to data from Cepea, between October 4 and 11, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 0.15% in Santa Catarina, 0.18% in Paraná and 0.12% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations dropped 0.58% in Paraná, 1.3% in Rio Grande do Sul and 3.8% in Santa Catarina; however, they moved up 1.8% in São Paulo. Dollar quotations increased 3% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.623 on October 11.

CROPS – The harvesting has started in Rio Grande do Sul, reaching 2% of the area, while other 30% of crops are in ripening stage – data from Emater/RS. In Paraná, 73% of the area had been harvested, with 62% of crops still on the field in ripening stage, according to information from Seab/Deral.

BYPRODUCTS – Comparing the period from October 4-11 with the previous (Sept. 30 to Oct. 4), values of wheat bran in bags downed 0.25% and 0.67% for the product in bulk.

The USDA released a report on Oct. 11 indicating that the 2024/25 global supply is estimated at 794.08 million tons. The world consumption may total 802.54 million tons.

As for Brazil, the USDA indicates a 5.3% decrease in production, to 9 million tons in 2024/25, but still 11% higher than in the 2023/24 season. As the consumption is stable, the imported volume is likely to total 5.9 million tons.

 

France Cuts Soft-Wheat Harvest Estimate to 25.4m Tons

France’s soft-wheat production is now seen at 25.4m tons for the current season, the country’s Agriculture Ministry said in a report.

• That’s down from from 25.8m tons estimated last month and 27.6% below last season’s total
• Barley output seen at 9.8m tons, down from 10m tons estimated last month and 20.2% below last season
• Durum wheat production pegged at 1.2m tons, similar to previous outlook
• Corn harvest expected at 14.5m tons, up slightly from last month’s estimate. Given the impact of bad weather on the corn campaign this year, the estimates may be revised
• Sugar beet crop estimate at 34.2m tons

 

India Sept. Oilmeals Exports Fall to 213,744 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports fell to 213,744 tons in September from 314,363 tons in August, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports rose to 131,265 tons from 126,610 tons in August
• Soymeal exports fell to 59,818 tons from 156,961 tons in August
• Rice-bran extract exports fell to 141 tons from 14,039 tons in August
• Castorseed meal exports rose to 22,092 tons from 15,567 tons in August

 

India Soybean Output Seen Rising on Favorable Weather, SOPA Says

Production may increase by almost 6% from a year earlier to 12.58m tons in 2024, helped by favorable weather conditions, according to preliminary estimates by the Soybean Processors Association of India.

• Average yield estimated at 1.06 tons per hectare in 2024, compared with about 1 ton a year earlier, the association said in a statement Tuesday
• Production in top grower Madhya Pradesh may rise to 5.54m tons from 5.25m tons
• Output in Maharashtra is estimated at 5.02m tons this year, vs 4.69m tons in 2023
• Production in Rajasthan likely at 1.05m tons vs 1.01m tons

 

Indonesia’s 2024 Rice Output Seen Falling, Corn May Rise: BPS

Indonesia’s unhusked rice production is estimated at 52.66m tons, 2.45% lower than the previous year, according to Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia, on Tuesday.

• Unhusked rice production was at 53.98m tons in 2023, says Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, acting head of the statistics office
  • Milled rice production seen at 30.34m tons this year vs 31.1m tons in 2023
• Harvest areas seen shrinking to 10.05m ha this year from 10.21m ha in 2023
  • El Nino in 2H last year generated less rain in the region and delayed planting period
  • Harvest area was narrowing during Jan-April, while expansion seen in 2H this year
• Corn production seen rising to 15.21m tons this year, +2.93% y/y
  • Harvest area estimated to expand 4.34% y/y to 2.58m ha as farmers shift from planting rice at end of 2023
• Indonesia’s rice imports were 3.23m tons in Jan-Sept, mainly from Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan
  • Corn imports were 997,920 tons during the period, with Argentina, Brazil and Pakistan as sources of supply

 

La Nina is becoming less likely, Australia’s weather bureau says

The likelihood of a La Nina weather event in coming months has decreased, Australia’s weather bureau said on Tuesday, adding that if the phenomenon did appear, it would be weak and short-lived.

The development of La Nina and its opposite, El Nino, are of huge importance to global agriculture, with La Nina typically increasing rainfall in eastern Australia, Southeast Asia and India and reducing rainfall in the Americas.

“The chance of a La Nina event developing in the coming months has decreased,” the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in a two-weekly update.

The bureau said its in-house climate model suggests La Nina will not develop and four of the six other climate models it surveys now agree.

La Nina and El Nino are caused by the cooling and warming of sea surface temperatures off western South America.

“If a La Nina were to develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak (in terms of the strength of the sea surface temperature anomaly) and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values in February,” the bureau said.

Other meteorologists have also become less confident that a La Nina will appear.

A U.S. government forecaster said last week there was a 60% chance of a La Nina emerging by the end of November that would persist through January-March 2025. A month earlier, it said there was a 71% chance of a La Nina forming.

 

September Large Farm-Equipment Sales Drop 28%, Most Since 2017

North American large-tractor and combine retail sales deteriorated, falling 28% in September — the biggest decline since 2017 — as low crop prices and weakening farm fundamentals are likely to weigh on demand at Deere, CNH and AGCO in 2024-25. Combines dropped 43%, the lowest September in more than 14 years. Large ag inventories rose to the highest since 2020 and remain a risk to production rates heading into 2025.

 

 

 

 

 

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