Global Ag News for Nov 5th

TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 1/4; Soymeal down $0.03; Soyoil down 0.10.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 5 3/4 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, down 29 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/2; Soybeans down 26 1/4; Soymeal up $0.29; Soyoil down 1.79. For the month to date wheat prices are up 5 3/4 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, down 29 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans down 26 1/2; Soymeal up $2.90; Soyoil down 1.79.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 91 yuan ; Soymeal down 42; Soyoil down 252; Palm oil down 234; Corn up 7 — Malasyian Palm is down 136. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 136 ringgit (-2.68%) at 4935 falling the most in about seven weeks following losses in soybean oil and as traders weighed prospects for higher stockpiles in Malaysia.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,318 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 4 were: SRW Wheat up 1,054 contracts, HRW Wheat up 325, Corn up 9,226, Soybeans up 1,796, Soymeal down 924, Soyoil up 1,819.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, above normal north and near to below normal south Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday. East: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near to above normal north and below normal south Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday, snow possible. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

The player sheet for Nov. 4 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 15,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 100,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender being held by Pakistan to purchase 90,000 tonnes of wheat was believed to be $407.38 a tonne, cost and freight (c&f) included, traders said. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) was still considering the offers and no purchase had been reported, traders said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought a total of 81,318 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Nov. 30.

U.S. Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows U.S. export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 28, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico and China combined for 34.5k tons of the 46.1k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 Nitrogen Shortage to Force U.S. Farmers to Scale Back Fertilizer

A shortage of nitrogen fertilizer is getting so bad that farmers won’t be able to get what they need for fields in the near future.

That’s according to executives at CF Industries Holdings Inc., who spoke on an earnings call Thursday. If the owner of the world’s largest nitrogen facility is right and farmers have to scale back fertilizer applications, that could lower corn yields, pushing up the price of food even further. Food inflation is already a concern, with a United Nations gauge of global prices at a decade high.

Fertilizer is scarce right now because high costs for natural gas, a key raw material, have halted some production in Europe. Other countries like China and Russia are imposing restrictions on exports to try and safeguard local supplies.

U.S. spot prices for potash and urea, a form of nitrogen fertilizer, have more than doubled this year, according to Green Markets, a company owned by Bloomberg. Analysts have raised concerns that farmers simply won’t be able to buy at these prices.

Biofuel Quotas Won’t Be Undercut by Refinery Waivers: Vilsack

Ethanol and biodiesel producers can count on forthcoming renewable fuel quotas that will be set by the Biden administration — without having to worry that refinery exemptions will undercut the annual targets, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said on the sidelines of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow.

• “You’ve got an Environmental Protection Agency that’s committed that when the numbers are announced, those are the numbers — and they won’t be undercut by waivers,” Vilsack said in an interview
• The EPA is preparing to propose quotas for how much renewable fuel such as corn-based ethanol and soy-based biodiesel must be mixed into gasoline and diesel in 2021 and 2022
• NOTE: Biofuel allies have said they worry the targets will be too low
• Vilsack cited other administration efforts to bolster biofuels, including “close to $1 billion of additional support to expand market access to higher-blend fuels” in Biden’s climate-and-social-spending legislation, as well as pandemic assistance and a sustainable aviation fuel initiative that represents “a potential doubling of the industry”

USDA attaché sees China 2021/22 soybean imports at 101 mln tonnes

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Beijing

“China’s soybean imports in marketing year (MY) 20/21 hit a record 99.8 million metric tons (MMT) on high feed demand in the swine and poultry sectors. Soybean imports are expected to reach 101 MMT in MY 21/22 on increasing demand for soybean meal and soybean oil and lower imports of rapeseed year-over-year. U.S. share of China’s soybean imports reached 37.2 percent in MY 20/21.”

USDA attaché sees India 2021/22 wheat exports at 5 mln tonnes

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in New Delhi:

“India’s forecast rice production in MY 2021/2022 production is revised lower to 124 MMT due to unseasonal rains in October at the time of harvest, affecting yield prospects. The MY 2021/2022 wheat export forecast is raised higher to 5 MMT (including 30,000-40,000 MT of wheat products) on expected steady domestic prices and more-than-sufficient exportable surplus. MY 2021/2022-ending stocks are lowered to the 27.85 MMT level, as the government draws down on stocks to ensure sufficient supply for the domestic milling industry.”

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Nov. 4: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2021-22 Soybean planting advances to 7.1% complete from 4.6% in previous week
• Planting area held at 16.5m ha
• Corn advances to 28.4% complete vs 27.6%; planting area held at 7.1m ha

PREVIEW-Malaysia end-Oct palm oil stocks seen higher as exports plunge

• Oct stocks seen up 3.4% at 1.81 mln T – survey
• Output seen down 0.98% to 1.69 mln T – survey
• Exports seen down 11.7% to 1.41 mln T – survey

French Wheat Planting Tops 2020 Pace, Corn Harvest Lags: AgriMer

Soft-wheat planting was 80% complete in France as of Nov. 1, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• Compares with 61% in the prior week and 75% last year
• Winter-barley planting was 90% complete
  • Compares with 78% the prior week and 86% last year
• Durum-wheat planting was 26% complete
  • Compares with 7% the prior week and 26% last year
• French corn crop was 73% harvested
  • Compares with 54% the prior week and 93% last year

Heavy rains in Argentina help corn sowing, wheat crop development

Rain in Argentina over the last week helped propel 2021/2022 corn sowing and development of wheat crops, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, after an earlier heat wave led to fears that the season would be hobbled by dryness.

Lack of water in October worried farmers in the Pampas grains belt as they planted corn and soy, while already sown wheat crops struggled to develop under dry conditions. The South American country is a major exporter of all three crops.

“The improvement in soil moisture over the last few days has allowed planting and development of crops to advance,” the exchange said in its weekly crop progress report.

Argentine growers have planted 28.4% of land expected to be planted with corn this season, with the harvest expected at 55 million tonnes.

The wheat harvest, set to conclude in January, is expected by the exchange at 19.8 million tonnes.

The 2021/2022 soy harvest in the country is expected by the exchange at 44 million tonnes. Some 7.1% of the soybean crop has been planted so far, propelled by stronger-than-expected rains in recent days, the exchange said in its report.

Flaws in Deforestation Pledge Mean Food Supply Will Stay Intact

The 100-nation pledge to end deforestation at COP26 has several shortcomings, which means it won’t have much impact on global agricultural production, according to Fitch Solutions.

The commitment to halt and reverse forest loss by 2030, signed by countries including Brazil, Colombia and Indonesia, is not legally binding and does not have mechanisms for monitoring and enforcement, the researcher said in a report. The proposed $19 billion in funding is also likely to be insufficient.

“The new pledge will not result in a significant impact on agricultural production,” Fitch Solutions said. “Instead we note it as a downside risk, while highlighting a number of uncertainties and shortcomings associated with the commitment.”

The company kept its agricultural production forecasts unchanged, including for commodities that tend to drive land clearing practices, such as livestock, soybeans, palm oil, coffee and cocoa.

It sees Brazilian beef and soybean production growing at an average rate of about 3% a year through to 2025. Indonesia palm oil output will continue to expand at 3.7%, while cocoa output in West Africa will also rise further.

U.S. Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Nov. 2: USDA

The following table shows the percent of U.S. agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Nov. 2, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Cotton crops in areas of moderate to intense drought rose 4 percentage points from the previous week to 23%
  • NOTE: Cotton was 45% harvested as of last Sunday and 62% rated good or excellent
• Winter wheat crops in drought area remained at 43% in the week
• Corn and soybean crop areas both decreased drought exposure in the week

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 43% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers increased in the week ending Oct. 30 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 8% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 83% w/w