TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS, EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS
Wheat prices overnight are up 7 3/4 in SRW, up 10 3/4 in HRW, up 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $0.42; Soyoil up 0.49.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 13 3/4 in SRW, up 41 1/4 in HRW, up 45 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/2; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil up 1.31.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 63 in SRW, up 90 3/4 in HRW, up 27 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 14 1/4; Soybeans up 9 3/4; Soymeal up $23.20; Soyoil down 1.68.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 86 yuan ; Soymeal down 2; Soyoil down 82; Palm oil down 94; Corn down 1 — Malasyian Palm is up 8. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 8 ringgit (+0.17%) at 4857 on prospects the omicron virus strain could delay the reopening of borders and prolong the shortage of plantation workers in the second-biggest grower Malaysia.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 904 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 26 were: SRW Wheat down 28,218 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,694, Corn down 68,169, Soybeans down 4,339, Soymeal down 15,299, Soyoil down 13,037.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday. East: Lake-effect snow Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.
The player sheet for Nov. 26 had funds: net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 12,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 9,000 soyoil.
TENDERS
- WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities said it was seeking an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers for shipment from Jan 9-20. GASC said the deadline for tenders would be on Nov. 29.
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan was believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that closed on Nov. 25
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO provisionally bought about 385,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender
- SOYOIL PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC said it bought 30,000 tonnes of soyoil in an international tender for arrival Jan. 15-31.
PENDING TENDERS
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
U.S. Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country
- China bought 882k tons of the 1.57m tons of soybeans sold in the week
- Mexico was the top buyer of corn and Japan led in wheat
U.S. Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country
- Mexico bought 11.3k tons of the 33.1k tons of pork sold in the week
- South Korea led in beef purchases
EU Raises 2021 Corn-Crop Estimate and Wheat-Export Outlook
The EU’s 2021 corn production is now seen at 68.4m tons, up from an October estimate for 67.8m tons, the European Commission said in a report.
- Soft-wheat output estimate little changed at 130.4m tons
- Estimate for exports to third countries increased to 32m tons, from 30m tons
- Stockpile estimate cut to 12.7m tons, from 13.9m tons
- Durum-wheat crop estimate raised slightly to 7.5m tons
- Barley production estimate trimmed slightly to 51.8m tons
Russia Grain Index Change Will Make Duty More Reactive: IKAR
A change to the calculation of Russia’s grain market indices will make weekly duties more reactive to price changes, Dmitry Rylko, director general at consultant IKAR in Moscow, said by email.
- That will be “of low importance during flat market times and of high importance during rising or falling prices,” he said
- Change removes already executed contracts, which previously were still in the system and influenced the daily index: IKAR
- NOTE: Earlier, Interfax reported that Russia’s National Commodity Exchange changed its method for calculating grain market indexes effective from next week, citing a document and comments from the Russian Union of Grain Exporters
- Moscow Exchange confirmed the report, a spokesman said
- NOTE: Russia switched to a floating export tax from June 2; the duty is defined based on a price index published by the Moscow Exchange
Russian Wheat-Export Tax to Rise to $80.80/Ton Next Week
Russia’s wheat export customs duty will increase to $80.80/ton next week from $78.30, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website.
Russian wheat rises for sixth week in a row amid strong demand
Russian wheat prices gained last week for the sixth consecutive week amid strong export demand and an earlier rally in global benchmarks, analysts said on Monday.
Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in the first half of December was $340 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $6 from the previous week, the IKAR consultancy said.
Sovecon, another consultancy, pegged wheat up $6 to $343 a tonne, while barley rose by $1 to $305 a tonne.
Traders are focused on spot sales as rising state tax complicates forward contracts, IKAR said.
Russian wheat exports are down by 35% since the start of the 2021/22 marketing season on July 1, due to a smaller crop and the export tax, which will rise to $80.8 per tonne this week. The tax is based on an indicative price of $315.5 per tonne.
Brazil Will Have the Earliest Soybean Harvest Ever: Agroconsult
Reaping may reach 51m tons by Feb.15, a record for the period, according to Andre Pessoa, head of Brazil’s crop forecaster Agroconsult.
- The earliest harvest ever reported so far was in the 2018-19 season, with 47.4m tons harvested by Feb. 15, he said late Thursday at an event hold by grain exporter group Anec
- 6.5m-9m tons should be reaped in the first half of Jan.
- NOTE: Brazil’s early harvest shortens the favorable window for U.S. exports
- Brazil soy production seen at 144.6m tons, up from 137m tons past season
- NOTE: USDA sees Brazil’s crop at 144m tons; Conab at 142m tons
- Wet November in Center-West spurs some farmer concerns; Dec. weather will be key for yields
- Exports seen at 92.2m tons next year, up from 85.6m tons
- Total corn crop seen at 124m tons, up from 87m tons
- Corn exports seen more than doubling next year to 45.2m tons
SOYBEAN/CEPEA: With the weather favorable, sowing is ending in BR
Soil moisture is beginning to decrease in some soybean-producing regions in Brazil, however, the lack of rains allowed sowing to advance in many areas. On the other hand, in southern BR, precipitation has been low and occasional, favoring crop activities, which had been interrupted in some regions.
In Mato Grosso, soybean sowing is practically over. According to data from Imea, 99.81% of the estimated area has been sown. High rains are forecast for December, which may favor crops development even more.
In Rio Grande do Sul, 68% of the estimated area had been sown by Nov. 24, a weekly advance of 16 percentage points and up from the 48% in the same period last year, according to Emater/RS. In Paraná, activities are ending, with 97% of the area already sown (5.47 million hectares), according to Deral/Seab’s last report.
According to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), soybean sowing has reached 99% of the area in Mato Grosso do Sul, 95% in Minas Gerais, 94% in Goiás, 85% in Tocantins, 83% in São Paulo, 80% in Bahia, 70.7% in Santa Catarina and 50% in Maranhão and Piauí.
PRICES – Soybean prices have increased this week, influenced by both the gradual reduction in the volume available (2020/21 season) and international valuations. Between November 18 and 25, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to soybean farmers (over-the-counter market) in Brazil rose by 1.6%; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased by 1.4%. On the other hand, the monthly averages in November (considering until the 25th) are 2.8% and 3.7% lower than that in October. In the annual comparison, the current averages are 3.2% higher in the over-the-counter market, but 3.2% lower in the wholesale market.
SALES – With almost 100% of the 2020/21 crop already sold, the deals for the 2021/22 season are in progress, but still at a slower pace than that in the same period last year. According to Deral/Seab, 8% (1.72 million tons) of the new crop from Paraná has been traded, a lot less than the 8.71 million tons marketed in the same period last year. In Mato Grosso, 44.41% have been sold, against 66.45% in the same period last year, according to the Imea.
CORN/CEPEA: Prices resume rising in BR, but deals are sporadic
After dropping for eight consecutive weeks, corn prices have resumed rising at Brazilian ports and in most regions in the interior of the country surveyed by Cepea. At the ports of Santos (SP) and Paranaguá (PR), values were influenced by both the strong dollar – majorly early this week – and futures increases abroad.
Purchasers reported stocks in most of the regions surveyed by Cepea, which constrained corn valuations. Thus, the trading pace in the interior of Brazil and at ports is slower than that in previous years.
PRICES – Between November 18 and 25, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) rose by 1.6%, to BRL 83.63 (USD 15.03)/60-kilo bag on Thursday, 25. At the ports of Santos and Paranaguá, prices increased by 2.9% and 1.4%, respectively.
On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to corn farmers (over-the-counter market) rose by 0.6%; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased by 0.2%. In southern BR, values are fading, since most of the summer crop is in that region.
CROPS – Despite the gradual decrease in rainfall along November, crops are developing well. In Rio Grande do Sul, corn sowing is ending. According to Emater/RS, 86% of the state area has been sown in RS.
According to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), until Nov. 20, 85% of the area estimated for São Paulo State had been sown; in Minas Gerais, 90%; in Goiás, 95%; in Santa Catarina, 95.3%; in Bahia, 45%; and in Maranhão, 9%.
Food Costs May Soon Hit Record in Inflation Warning
Omicron is not the only thing traders will have on their minds this week. Global food costs may hit a record, or at least come very close to a new high, in a move that’ll fuel the debate about inflation, squeeze consumers, and pose another challenge for pandemic-weary governments.
The UN’s comprehensive World Food Price Index is already at the highest in a decade and just a little more than 3% shy of the all-time peak. The gauge — which covers everything from cereals and vegetable oils to dairy, meat and sugar — has jumped during the pandemic on costlier freight rates, labor shortages, and inclement weather. A rally in energy has also raised farm-input costs, including fertilizer. The print for November comes Thursday.
Key staple wheat has been on a roll lately, jumping 10% this month. Corn has pushed higher too, along with whole milk powder. The gauge tracks the price of bulk commodities in international trade, so doesn’t reflect prices paid by retail consumers. Those will likely climb in 2022 as higher costs feed through.
Indonesia Raises CPO Reference Price to $1,365.99/Ton for Dec.
Govt raises the reference price for crude palm oil to $1,365.99/ton for December, from $1,283.38/ton in November, according to trade ministry’s decree posted on its website on Monday.
- CPO export tax will be kept at $200/ton in December and additional levy also kept at $175/ton
USDA Loan Activity: 2021 Crop Corn Outstanding 144.433M Bu
Total 2021-crop corn quantity outstanding into the government’s 9-month price support loan program are 144.433 million bushels, an increase of 43.190 million bushels during the week ended Nov 22, according to USDA. Changes are compared to data for the week ended Nov 15.
Total 2020-crop corn quantity outstanding into the 9-month loan totaled 19.677 million bushels, which is a decrease of 1.970 million bushels. Following is a breakdown of activity in the regular 9-month non-recourse loan program for 2021 and 2020 crop corn in thousand bushels.
China urged to be ‘vigilant’ to rising grain prices in battle for food security
China should boost policy support, monitor global grain prices and diversify imports to maintain food security, state media says.
Rising food prices are driving inflation concerns and putting average people under more economic pressure, analysts say.
China is under pressure to stabilise grain prices and should roll out more support to counter price volatility in domestic and international markets, state media said in the latest warning on food security.
Domestic prices of corn and wheat are high, while rice has fallen below the minimum purchase price, the state-run Economic Daily said in a commentary published on Thursday.
High corn prices caused by production shortages could be made worse by continuous rainfall and an unusually cold winter in northern China, it added.
France detects highly pathogenic bird flu on poultry farm in north – farm ministry
France has detected a highly pathogenic bird flu virus on a poultry farm in the north of the country, the farm ministry said on Saturday.
The authorities, which said they had yet to identify the strain, are to slaughter the chickens and disinfect the farm to prevent the spread of the disease, the ministry said in a statement.
The outbreak followed several outbreaks among poultry farms in Europe and Asia in recent weeks in a sign the virus is spreading quickly again.
U.S. Beef Production Falls 16.3% This Week, Pork Down: USDA
U.S. federally inspected beef production falls to 471m pounds for the week ending Nov. 27 from 562m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.
- Cattle slaughter down 16.4% from a week ago to 566m head
- Pork production down 13.7% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 14%
- For the year, beef production is 2.5% above last year’s level at this time, while pork is 2.3% below
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