Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 2 cents; HRW up 1; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is up 4 cents; Soybeans up 14 to 9; Soymeal up $3.50 to unchanged, and Soyoil up 95 points.
Chinese Ag futures for (September) settled up 124 yuan in soybeans, up 24 in Corn, up 84 in Soymeal, up 362 in Soyoil, and up 352 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 143 ringgit at 4,187 (basis July) at midsession, a 13 year high amid supply concerns.
U.S. Weather Forecast: A beneficial precipitation event is still expected Friday through Sunday in Montana, South Dakota, and southwestern North Dakota. Rain and some snow will be involved and will be important for raising soil moisture in these areas. The northeastern part of the Northern Plains will miss out from this event but will likely receive at least some precipitation in week 2 of the outlook. Last evening’s GFS model run was notably wetter in the Northern Plains May 13 – 15 and May 18 – 20.
South America Weather Forecast: Concern remains of dryness in Safrinha corn areas of Brazil and dryness is likely to continue across most of this area through at least the next ten days to two weeks. Conditions in Argentina will continue to be very good for late season crops.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 10,000 in Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; net bought 3,000 Soymeal, and; net even in Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 424,000 Corn; long 183,000 Soybeans; long 53,000t Soymeal, and; net long 107,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,500 contracts; HRW Wheat up 30; Corn up 6,100; Soybeans down 1,600 contracts; Soymeal up 3,400 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,400.
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; 35 Soyoil; 11 Rice; ZERO Corn; 212 HRW Wheat; 1 Oat; 7 Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; 1 HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 76; Rice up 8)—Registrations total 134 contracts for SRW Wheat; 16 Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 66; Soyoil 1,161 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,371; HRW Wheat 1,289, and; HRS 555.
Tender Activity—S. Korea seeks 276,000t optional-origin corn—
For the week ended Apr 30th, ethanol production was 952,000 barrels per day, up 0.7% versus a week ago, up 59.0% versus a year ago.
Stocks were 20.4 mil barrels, up 3.6% versus last week, down 20.2% versus last year.
Corn used was 96.2 mil bu versus 95.5 mil last week and versus the 97.5 mil needed to meet USDA projections.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is handing over to the Government Accountability Office information on oil refiners that petitioned for exemptions to biofuel blending mandates, in an effort to help the government watchdog investigate the exemption program. The move shows the Biden administration’s willingness to help scrutinize the so-called small refinery exemption program, which had expanded dramatically during former President Donald Trump’s term.
World food prices increased for a 11th consecutive month in April, hitting their highest level since May 2014, with sugar leading a rise in all the main indices, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 120.9 points last month versus a revised 118.9 in March. The March figure was previously given as 118.5. The Rome-based FAO also said in a statement that new forecasts pointed to growth in both world wheat and maize output in the coming season. FAO’s cereal price index rose 1.2% in April month-on-month and 26% year-on-year. Worries about crop conditions in Argentina, Brazil and the United States pushed maize prices up 5.7% last month, while wheat prices held largely steady. By contrast, international rice prices slipped. FAO’s vegetable oil price index rose 1.8% on the month, pushed higher by rising soy, rapeseed and palm oil quotations, which offset lower sunflower oil values.
Cool and wet conditions favor China wheat yield formation, but risk of pest damage increases – Refinitiv Commodities Research
—2021/22 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 137 [133–141] MILLION TONS, Nearly unchanged FROM LAST UPDATE
Brazil’s cereal exporter association Anec on Wednesday maintained the country would ship some 32 million tonnes of corn this year, 1.6 million tonnes less than in 2020, despite a drought that is affecting yields in certain producing areas.
- BRAZIL 2020/2021 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 136.34 MLN TNS VS 135.47 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – DATAGRO
- BRAZIL 2020/2021 CORN CROP SEEN AT 105.46 MLN TNS VS 109.3 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – DATAGRO
Russian wheat production steady as recent weather avoids extremes – Refinitiv Commodities Research
—2021/22 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 78.6 [68.5–91.0] MILLION TONS, unchanged from last update. Continued mostly mild conditions and improving soil moisture maintains 2021/22 Russia wheat production at 78.6 [68.5–91.0] million tons.
Ukrainian grain exports have fallen by 24% to almost 39 million tonnes so far in the July 2020 to June 2021 season, agriculture ministry data showed. The exports included 15.13 million tonnes of wheat, 19.14 million tonnes of corn and 4.12 million tonnes of barley. Traders have used around 86.5% of the total wheat export quota of 17.5 million tonnes imposed for the whole 2020/21 July-June season.
Ukraine wheat production outlooks tentatively unchanged as cool temperatures hinder spring regrowth – Refinitiv Commodities Research
Ukraine corn production set to rebound in 2021/22 from a drought-plagued 2020 – Refinitiv Commodities Research
Kazakhstan 2021/22 wheat production to remain near last season – Refinitiv Commodities Research
Dry weather continues to favor rapid EU-27 + UK corn plantings – Refinitiv Commodities Research
European wheat rose sharply on Wednesday, tracking a rally in the United States, while the market continued to monitor weather forecasts for rain in Europe that could soften concerns of damage from a recent dry spell. Benchmark September milling wheat closed 2.5% higher at 226.00 euros a tonne. The front-month contract May, which expires on Monday, jumped as high as 259.75 euros a tonne, near its contract high, before reversing course to close 1% lower at 249.50 euros.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
