Global Ag News For May 23.2025

TOP HEADLINES

IGC Slightly Raises Global Grain Stockpile Forecast for 2025/26

Global grain stockpiles are expected to total 585m tons in the 2025-26 season, according to the International Grains Council, up 5m tons from last month’s estimate.

• This was due to upgraded outlooks for wheat and corn
  • Wheat stockpile forecasts were raised to 262m tons from 260m tons in April
  • Corn raised to 284m tons from 281m tons
  • Soybeans cut to 81m tons from 83m tons
  • Rice cut to 179m tons from 180m tons
• Total grain production seen little changed at 2.38b tons

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 4 1/4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil up 0.50.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 18 3/4 in SRW, up 20 1/4 in HRW, up 25 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 19 3/4; Soybeans up 18; Soymeal up $5.10; Soyoil up 0.68.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 3/4 in SRW, up 6 1/4 in HRW, up 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13 1/4; Soybeans up 22 1/4; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil up 0.64.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.4% in SRW, down 4.0% in HRW, up 0.5% in HRS; Corn is up 1.0%; Soybeans up 7.0%; Soymeal down 3.4%; Soyoil up 24.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal up 18; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil unchanged; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 5.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 5 ringgit (+0.13%) at 3825.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 22 were: SRW Wheat down 5,824 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,850, Corn up 437, Soybeans up 12,154, Soymeal down 3,412, Soyoil down 3,030.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 23 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Our latest LSEG Monthly Outlook for June confirms elevated risk of warm/dry conditions over the U.S. Plains and Midwest
• SOUTH AMERICA: Another drier than normal week of May has passed across the second-crop areas of Central Brazil, primarily affecting soil moisture levels in Goiás
• EUROPE: Eastern Europe rains in May eased regional drought, but soil moisture remains at 6-year lows in Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Ukraine
• SOUTH ASIA: Excessive rains in Southwest India over the last days have triggered local flooding in Karnataka and southern Maharashtra

 

Northern Plains: Additional rain will move through Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend, but go on a warming trend next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A system moves through slowly with showers starting Thursday night and continuing into early next week. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week, which should keep stress down for those drier areas.

Midwest: A system is leaving the east on Thursday after bringing widespread heavy precipitation throughout most of the region, favoring drier areas in the northwest. Another system may bring showers to western and southern parts of the region Friday into the weekend as well. Those that still have planting to do could be delayed across the south. Cold temperatures are spreading through the region, being in place through a good portion of next week. Frost is not a very likely concern, but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas. Temperatures will rise going into June.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Another system will bring showers in on Friday and continue into early next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures will be much cooler through next week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

Canadian Prairies: The skies are drying over Saskatchewan and Manitoba while additional showers will be possible in Alberta through Friday as a system finally gives up across the region. After producing widespread rainfall this week, another favorable planting window is opening for the end of the month, which should allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures are limiting germination and early growth, with some patchy frost this week that has not been a major concern. Otherwise, temperatures will rise next week and conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

Brazil: A front will bounce around southern Brazil into next week, offering some potential rainfall. The front will get a push north next week, getting into south-central Brazil before dying out. Those in Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state, would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers should make it into Parana as well and likely Mato Grosso do Sul in the middle of next week to provide some benefit for filling safrinha corn. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture as is usual for this time of year. Early harvest should begin over the next couple of weeks.

Argentina: Showers will move through with a front this weekend and then a bigger push early next week with more widespread precipitation. Outside of the flooding, overall rainfall has been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment. Colder air that follows behind next week’s system will likely cause areas of frost, but is not of particularly concern to agriculture.

 

The player sheet for 5/22 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 80,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 322.9K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.41M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending May 15.

• Corn sales fell to 1,409k tons vs 2,186k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 869k tons vs 805k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 323k tons vs 773k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending May 15, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 134k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 371k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Philippines with 138k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending May 15, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 14.4k tons of the 37.4k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Argentina downpours delay early wheat planting efforts

Recent heavy rains in Argentina have delayed the country’s wheat planting, as well as its soybean and corn harvests, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday in its weekly crop report.

Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat planting season kicked off this week with just 3.4% of the planned 6.7 million hectares (16.6 million acres) planted so far.

The figure is 10 percentage points behind where it was at the same point last year, and four percentage points under the five-year average.

Argentina is a major global exporter of wheat.

Recent downpours of between 100 and 400 millimeters (4 and 16 inches) caused severe flooding in recent weeks and further soaked fields already waterlogged by showers earlier in the month.

At the same time, the report noted that excessively dry conditions in the country’s north are contributing to wheat planting delays.

In April, the exchange forecast the 2025/26 wheat harvest would reach 20.5 million metric tons.

The rains have also delayed the 2024/25 soybean harvest by 20 percentage points in western parts of the heavily hit Buenos Aires province, the exchange said. The harvest as a whole is 74.3% complete.

The entity on Thursday held its estimate of 50 million tons for the soybean crop but warned earlier this week that production could face significant cuts due to harvest delays.

The also-delayed corn harvest is 38.8% complete, the exchange said, with production estimated at 49 million tons.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, and the third-largest exporter of corn.

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates May 22: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 production estimates maintained for soybeans and corn
• Soybean harvest advanced to 74.3% complete vs 64.9% in the previous week
• 2025-26 wheat planting seen at 6.7m ha vs 6.3m ha in the previous season

 

Russia Sees Reduced Impact of Cold Weather on Crops This Year

Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut says spring frosts affected around 136,000 hectares of crops this year, which is about eight times less than a year ago.

• At present 90% of affected area has been reseeded with work on remaining fields to be completed soon, minister says during televised meeting with President Vladimir Putin

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Down 17% Y/y in Season So far

Ukraine’s grain exports in the season that started in July 1 reached 37.6m tons as of Friday, down about 17% versus the same period last season, according to data on the Agriculture Ministry’s website.

• The total includes:
  • 14.6m tons of wheat, 14% lower y/y
  • 2.29m tons of barley, down 3% y/y
  • 20m tons of corn, down 21.4% y/y
• Exports so far in May reached 2.3m tons, almost 43% below the same period last year

 

China issues funds to safeguard agriculture from disasters

China’s recently disbursed 1.4 billion yuan ($194.42 million) of central government funds earmarked for agricultural production disaster prevention and relief, according to a statement from the Agriculture Ministry on Friday.

The funds from the Agriculture Ministry and Finance Ministry will support 30 provinces including Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and Henan, according to the statement.

The central government will focus on providing appropriate subsidies for pesticides, equipment and unified services for disaster prevention and control.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 0.8% Y/y in April

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.6b pounds in April, according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 2.7% y/y to 2.24b pounds
• April cattle slaughter totaled 2.57m head, a 5.8% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 36 pounds from last year to 1,431 pounds
• Pork production up 1.1% y/y to 2.34b pounds
• Hog slaughter increased 0.5% y/y to 10,806m head
  • Avg live weight was 291 pounds vs 290 pounds a year ago

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 886k tons in the week ending May 17 from 739k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 28.9% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 7.5% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $12.53 per short ton, a decline of $0.92 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending May 20: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending May 20, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas remained at 22% in the week
• Drought in soybean areas were down a percentage point to 16%

 

June may bring a strong reversal to hot/dry conditions in the U.S. key crop areas

What to Watch:

• High confidence in the forecast of warm and dry conditions in June across Central U.S., with potential for excessive heat in the northern Plains
• Anomalies are less pronounced along the Canadian Prairies, but part of key crop regions remains at risk
• Adverse weather could lead to rapid evaporation, diminishing recent improvements in soil moisture across all spring crop areas

 

JUNE 2025 WEATHER OUTLOOK

Crop Impacts: 

Crop impacts during June will be primarily focused on spring crop late plantings and early development stages, also on winter wheat reaching maturity and early harvest stage.

For the U.S., the expectations of warmth and widespread dryness across the Plains and most of the Corn Belt is highly unfavourable for all spring crops. Concerns about low moisture may quickly return in June ahead of crucial early corn/soybean development stages, as surpluses gained in late May may be quickly erased and pressure on rains later in the saason will increase. The excessive warmth expected in the northern Plains will primarily affect spring wheat in Dakotas, also with potential for rapid moisture evaporation freshly gained in the last week.

As for the winter wheat, the chances for late improvement in soil moisture are also low, with a dominance of warmth and dryness across the HRW wheat area of Central Plains. The outlook is more moderate for the wheat area in the Northwest.

In Canada, crop regions of the southern Prairies are at the edge of the area with the highest anomalies and should observe slightly milder condition than U.S. However, the risks of heat/dryness are also elevated for the most productive wheat/rapeseed regions in Alberta and Manitoba, while the final outlook might be divided for crop areas of Saskatchewan.

 

 

 

 

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