Global Ag News For July 9.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US farm secretary says ‘no amnesty’ for farmworkers from deportation

• Trump wants a 100% American workforce, Rollins says
• Farm sector has warned deportations would disrupt food supply
• USDA to curb purchases of farmland by foreign entities
• China says practice is ‘discriminatory’

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday that there will be “no amnesty” for agricultural workers as President Donald Trump’s administration moves to deport all immigrants in the country illegally.

Rollins said the administration wants a 100% American workforce and suggested some people receiving government aid could replace immigrant workers.

“Ultimately, the answer on this is automation, also some reform within the current governing structure. And then also, when you think about, there are 34 million able-bodied adults in our Medicaid program. There are plenty of workers in America,” she said at a press conference outside the Department of Agriculture headquarters.

Most adults on Medicaid work full- or part-time or are not working due to illness or disability, caregiving, or school attendance, according to a May brief by the health policy organization KFF.

The farm sector has warned that mass deportation of farm workers would disrupt the U.S. food supply. In June, the Trump administration signaled it might pause raids on some farm work sites. It has since reversed course.

Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill, passed on July 3, introduces work requirements for Medicaid, which the Congressional Budget Office has said is expected to leave nearly 12 million people uninsured.

Later on Tuesday, Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer said at a cabinet meeting at the White House that the Department of Labor had developed a new office to work with farmers and ranchers, but did not provide more details.

The Labor Department oversees the H-2A program, which provides seasonal visas for agricultural workers.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil down 0.18.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 in SRW, down 13 1/2 in HRW, down 16 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 21 1/2; Soybeans down 30; Soymeal down $6.30; Soyoil down 0.90.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 3/4 in SRW, down 3 1/4 in HRW, up 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans down 6 1/2; Soymeal down $3.60; Soyoil up 1.07.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.5% in SRW, down 10.0% in HRW, up 2.9% in HRS; Corn is down 9.4%; Soybeans up 2.6%; Soymeal down 13.1%; Soyoil up 36.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 22 yuan; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil up 14; Palm oil up 102; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 18.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 18 ringgit (+0.43%) at 4166.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 1,001 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,856 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 8 were: SRW Wheat up 7,556 contracts, HRW Wheat up 44, Corn down 2,349, Soybeans down 2,226, Soymeal up 8,142, Soyoil down 1,720.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 08 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Many crop regions across the central U.S. will benefit from a moderating temperature pattern during the next 10+ days
• SOUTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth between 4-6 °C above normal is expected across Argentina during the next two weeks
• SOUTH ASIA: Cool and wet weather is expected across northern India during the next 10 days, while drier conditions are expected in the south
• EUROPE: Warmth is expected to return to nearly all of Europe after a brief cool-down across the continent this week
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) will remain in a positive phase event through mid-July, before possibly entering a negative phase during the 2nd half of the month

SHIFTING WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Heat will give way to a much more favorable pattern across the Central U.S.
• Lack of extreme dry weather in the forecast

Northern Plains: Showers have been frequent across the region lately, but being scattered they have missed some areas. Several disturbances and systems will move through this week and next, which keeps the region active. Only scattered showers are being forecast and areas of heavy rain will be contained to thunderstorms that develop. Some severe weather should be expected as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the region going through next week while temperatures are generally seasonable. The rain may have delayed some of the remaining winter wheat harvest, but it continues to produce overall good conditions for corn and soybean development. Multiple fronts are forecast to move through this week and next, which will keep the region busier than normal for summer as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

Midwest: A system will slowly move through the region through Wednesday, another will move through Friday and Saturday, and more are forecast to move through next week, keeping the region very busy. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain while others stay unfavorably wet. Temperatures remain generally mild to warm through next week but could trend warmer thereafter. Still, most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front settling into northern areas and moisture increasing northward from the Gulf will produce scattered showers for most of the week. Though some areas have had a chance to dry out a bit, the coming rainfall is going to keep some areas too wet.

Canadian Prairies: Some areas across Manitoba and Saskatchewan have missed out on recent rainfall and are in need of rain. A couple of disturbances will move through this week and next, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some areas. The models have reversed a trend for heavier rain across eastern areas later this week and now only show limited showers, unfavorable as wheat and canola are in their reproductive stages.

Europe: A system will continue eastward with showers over the next day or two, bringing through a relief in temperatures after a couple of very hot weeks. The system is likely to stall out in the east and continue showers there into next week. Many areas have been very hot and dry, which has been favorable for maturing and harvest of winter wheat. But other areas need the rain for spring-sewn crops that may be heading into pollination. Western areas are more at risk with limited rainfall and increasing temperatures again later this week.

Black Sea: Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. A system over Europe will stall over the east and bring showers to Ukraine going into next week. But southwestern Russia will see very little precipitation with heat building. That will be good for maturing and harvesting wheat, but not for vegetative corn and sunflowers as many areas have limited soil moisture and need some solid rains.

Australia: Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country despite some recent showers. Though wheat and canola are still vegetative over the winter, they will need some solid rain soon when the crops head toward reproductive stages in another month or so. Some rain will pass through over the next two weeks, but probably not enough to reverse the dry trend.

 

The player sheet for 7/8 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 144,000 metric tons of U.S. soymeal to the Philippines. The total included 97,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began October 1, 2024, and the remaining 47,000 tons for delivery in 2025/26.
• CORN SALES: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 112,776 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Mexico in the 2025/26 corn marketing year that begins on September 1, 2025.
• BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• CORN TENDER: Tunisian state agency ONF issued an international tender to purchase about 50,000 metric tons of animal feed corn

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) has issued an international tender to purchase between 52,000 and 69,000 metric tons of animal feed cor
• SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of soymeal
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tons of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending July 4 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.068m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.969m bbl vs 24.117m a week ago

 

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2024-25 Corn Output Seen at 133.1M Tons

Brazil corn production seen 4.85m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of as many as eight analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 129m tons to 142m tons
• Brazil’s soybean crop seen 1.3m tons higher at 170.9m tons
• Last month, the agency raised its corn output est. by 1.4m tons and raised its soybean est. by 1.3m tons

 

Brazil faces challenging corn export season as it harvests bumper crop

Brazil’s corn exports are set to face new challenges this year as the shipping season starts with possible logistics issues, China making fewer purchases and strong competition expected from the United States, analysts told Reuters.

Corn exports for 2024/25 are set to increase in volume, they said, but could face bottlenecks as they will have to compete for space in ports if China’s demand for Brazil’s record soybean crop remains firm in the second half of 2025.

Brazil’s corn production this season is expected to total 128.3 million metric tons, according to government projections, an 11% jump from the previous season cycle.

Consultancy StoneX estimates Brazilian exports at 42 million tons, exceeding last season’s 38.5 million tons.

China, a large buyer of Brazilian corn in 2022 and 2023, needs fewer imports after a bumper harvest, said StoneX analyst Raphael Bulascoschi, adding that the United States could also have a record crop, competing with Brazil in external markets.

“We have an exportable surplus, but we will need to find buyers,” Bulascoschi said.

Brazil’s shipments will have to rely on demand from countries like Iran, Egypt and Vietnam, Itau BBA analyst Francisco Queiroz said. He noted, however, that they do not have the same volume capacity as China.

 

2025/26 global wheat exports amid policy shifts and harvest pressures

Russia’s wheat exports fell sharply to 1.2 million tons in June 2025, marking a 39% month-on-month decrease from May and a significant 71% decline from the same month a year ago, according to LSEG trade flows. Early July data from LSEG shipping records indicate that 1.4 million tons of wheat have already been scheduled for export this month. Overall, we forecast Russia’s 2025/26 wheat exports at 41.5 million tons, supported by an anticipated harvest of 80.3 – 86 million tons. Meanwhile, Russia has lowered its weekly export tax to zero rubles per ton (from 56.3 rubles/$0.70) for shipments between July 9 – 15, the first time since its introduction in June 2021. This move could boost sluggish exports, as the export tax was initially implemented to limit excessive shipments and stabilize domestic prices.

Ukrainian wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (July – June) fell to 15.7 million tons, down 15% from the previous marketing year’s 18.5 million tons, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. We expect the downward trend to persist in 2025/26, with exports projected to fall further to 13.8 million tons due to lower forecasted production (20.7 million tons, according to LSEG Agriculture Research) and reduced carry-in stocks. Meanwhile, the EU has imposed new import quotas, capping Ukrainian wheat shipments at 1.3 million tons annually, a 30% increase from pre-war levels but a 70 – 80% drop compared to recent seasons (which averaged 4.5 – 6.5 million tons). The measure aims to shield EU farmers from cheap imports, likely forcing Ukraine to redirect exports to Asia and North Africa, where demand for its competitively priced wheat remains strong despite the war.

According to the USDA’s weekly Grain Export Inspections report released on July 7, wheat inspections for the week ending July 3 totaled 436,628 tons, down from 476,581 tons the previous week but above 343,359 tons during the same week in 2024. Market year-to-date wheat exports reached 1.8 million tons, slightly above the 1.7 million tons recorded during the same period last year. We project total U.S. wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing year at 22 million tons.

Canadian wheat exports increased by 11% to approximately 24 million tons between August 2024 and May 2025, according to customs data. LSEG trade flows indicate an additional 1.5 million tons of wheat were exported in June. As a result, we raised our forecast for Canada’s 2024/25 wheat exports to 27 million tons, and project a slight reduction to 26.5 million tons in 2025/26, in line with our 2025/26 production outlook of approximately 35 million tons.

In Argentina, wheat exports grew by 31% to 7.6 million tons during December 2024 – May 2025 (as per customs data), with an additional 748,000 tons of wheat shipped in June as indicated by LSEG trade flows. The government’s extension of reduced export taxes through March 2026 is expected to maintain Argentina’s competitive position. Our wheat export forecasts stand at 12 million tons for the 2024/25 season, rising to 13 million tons in the 2025/26 season based on projected production of 19.9 million tons, according to LSEG Agriculture Research.

Australia’s wheat exports have encountered moderate headwinds. From October 2024 to May 2025, shipments rose slightly, just 2% year-on-year, to approximately 15 million tons (as per customs data), weighed down by weak Chinese demand and growing competition from Northern Hemisphere suppliers during their harvest seasons. However, LSEG trade flows suggest that 1.9 million tons of Australian wheat were exported in June, which may keep cumulative exports during the first three quarters of the 2024/25 season (October/September) above the previous year’s level. Our wheat export forecasts remain at 22.5 million tons for 2024/25, with a modest increase to 23 million tons anticipated for 2025/26.

 

SovEcon Raises 2025-26 Russian Wheat Export Est. to 42.9m Tons

SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s 2025-26 wheat exports by 2.1m tons, citing improved crop prospects, the consultancy said in a note.

• Increase comes following an upgrade to the season’s production forecast
• Exports also expected to be supported by enhanced price competitiveness, undercutting Bulgarian and Romanian offers
  • “With solid margins, Russian exporters may have room to reduce prices further if necessary”: Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon
  • Competition with these countries and Ukraine for demand may still weigh on market
• “While strong exports from Russia and the wider Black Sea region could pressure global wheat prices, we expect Russia’s early-season sales to be less aggressive than in 2024/25. This is due to expected reduced domestic supply, driven by lower carry-in stocks.”: Sizov
• Would mark an increase on 2024-25 season export estimate of 40.8m tons

 

EU 2024/25 soybean imports 14.52 million T by June 30, rapeseed 7.45 million T

European Union soybean imports over the 2024/25 season that started in July 2024 had reached 14.52 million metric tons by June 30, compared with 13.20 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 7.45 million tons, against 5.68 million a year earlier.

 

Indonesian Palm Oil Exports to US May Drop Up to 20% on Tariffs

Indonesia’s palm oil exports to the US may drop by 15%-20% due to higher tariff threat compared to neighboring Malaysia, says M. Hadi Sugeng Wahyudiono, secretary general of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association known as Gapki, via text messages on Tuesday.

• Shipments to the US may fall to 1.9m tons this year from average of 2.25m tons in the past three years
• Gapki seeks to expand palm oil markets in the Middle East and Africa as alternatives
• Palm oil’s competitiveness may decline if other vegetable oil exporter nations get lower tariffs
• Malaysian palm oil may fill in for Indonesia’s share in the US

 

Corn vs soy: Argentina’s farmers weigh taxes, margins in planting plans

Farmers in Argentina, one of the world’s top grains suppliers, are set to favor corn over soy in the upcoming 2025/26 season, the head of the major SRA agricultural association told Reuters, citing higher export taxes on soy, subdued prices and margins.

The South American country is the world’s top exporter of processed soy oil and meal and the No. 3 for corn, with its production levels having an impact on global prices.

Nicolás Pino, president of the SRA, said in an interview that stronger prices for corn and lower domestic taxes versus soy were key factors for farmers as they planned for the next campaign. Planting for corn and soy starts from September.

“Many producers will opt to plant corn, which has a better price, lower tax burden, and other uses,” said Pino, also a farmer. He said soy output could however still beat this season’s expected 50 million metric tons given a good weather outlook, while corn should beat this season’s 49 million tons.

“There will be a high planting intention,” he said.

The balance would likely tilt towards corn, though, after Argentina ended a temporary tax cut for soy this month, lifting export tariffs to 33% on soybeans and 31% on soymeal and oil from 26% and 24.5% respectively. Corn is taxed at 12%.

Global prices for both soy and corn are also dampened, putting extra focus on tax rates and margins.

“In a scenario where soybeans are worth less worldwide, close to $370, if you add high tax pressure to that loss of value, the numbers are really tight,” said Pino, who added that some farmers who plant soybeans in rented fields – more than 60% of the total – were facing the risk of bankruptcy.

Pino called on Argentina’s business-friendly libertarian President Javier Milei to lower export taxes to boost production – a campaign pledge the government has delayed given weak state finances and the need for farm export dollars.

“To regain competitiveness, tax withholdings have to be zero, straight to zero,” said Pino, saying that the higher taxes than neighboring producers like Brazil had weighed on production for years and left output from the sector “stagnant”.

Argentina’s total grain production is expected to hit some 136 million tons in the ongoing 2024/25 season, according to the major Rosario grains exchange.

“Given the attitudes the national government has been taking, I have no doubt that the path it proposes is to reach that zero. The issue for us farmers is that at times it feels like time is running out,” he added.

 

US Acts on Foreign Ownership of Farmland Amid China Tension

The Trump administration is tightening its grip on foreign ownership of farmland amid continuing concerns over Chinese investment in America’s heartland.

The US Department of Agriculture will work with state lawmakers to end farmland purchases “by nationals for countries of concern or other foreign adversaries,” according to a press event Tuesday. The USDA is also partnering with the Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS, to review foreign purchases involving the farming industry.

US farms are “under threat from criminals, from political adversaries and from hostile regimes that understand our way of life as a profound and existential threat to themselves,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said at the event. Rollins said she is officially part of CFIUS as of Tuesday.

The move comes as US-China tensions have reverberated across state and local politics in Middle America in recent years, sowing angst about Chinese investment. Lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle have long raised concerns that foreign farmland ownership threaten food and national security, and roughly half of US states bar non-resident or foreign-owned entities from owning farmland, according to the National Agricultural Law Center.

In 2023, a unit of seed company Syngenta AG was given two years to divest 160 acres of farmland in Arkansas. That enforcement action against Syngenta, which was acquired by China National Chemical Corp., was the first taken under legislation signed by Republican Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders banning prohibited foreign entities from owning agricultural lands in the state.

In a similar development, a $700 million corn mill project in Grand Forks, North Dakota, was scrapped in 2023 after facing growing opposition from local politicians over its Chinese owner.

Companies such as Syngenta and Smithfield Foods Inc., owned by China’s WH Group, are among the owners of American farmlands that have raised concerns among officials. Peter Navarro, the counselor to the president, said the acquisition of Smithfield in 2013 “really troubled” him, and that seeds like those sold by Syngenta “can be the revolution that keeps the world fed, and China now owns a key part of that.”

Syngenta is already in the process of selling its remaining farmland in the US and currently owns fewer than 1,000 agricultural acres, a company spokesperson said Tuesday. That land has been used for testing products locally because, for example, “testing soybeans in Wisconsin does not guarantee they will be the best option for soybean producers in Georgia,” the spokesperson said.

Smithfield Foods has sold more than a third of its US farmland since 2013 and now owns about 85,000 acres, a number that “continues to decline,” a spokesperson said. He added that WH Group is not a Chinese state-owned enterprise and that CFIUS approved its acquisition of Smithfield.

Foreign-held farmland expanded to nearly 45 million acres as of 2023, though that is only about 3.5% of all US privately-held farmland, according to the USDA. More than a third of that acreage is owned by Canadian investors. China held nearly 280,000 acres in 2023, slightly less than 1% of foreign-held acres.

The so-called National Farm Security Action Plan unveiled Tuesday raises the fine for late and false filings on foreign farm investments to 25%, and creates a new portal for reporting filing violations. Other pillars of the plan include evaluating USDA-funded research for foreign participation, including the elimination of all program agreements going to so-called foreign adversaries.

The USDA has already canceled seven agreements with entities in foreign countries of concern and will continue to do so, Rollins said. She said she also signed a memorandum removing 70 citizens of such countries who were affiliated with the USDA through contracts or research arrangements.

Also speaking at the event with Rollins were Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. State governors including from Arkansas, Nebraska and Tennessee were also in attendance.

 

CME Unveils Urea US Gulf Futures to Aid Fertilizer Price Swings

(Bloomberg) — CME Group is offering 10-Ton Urea US Gulf futures contracts aimed at a broader group of traders seeking to hedge exposure to volatile fertilizer prices.

• The futures will be financially settled and listed at 1/10 the size and cost of standard fertilizer contracts, CME said in a statement
• “The smaller 10-ton contract size allows for more tailored hedging strategies, without the capital commitment of larger contracts”: statement

 

Low water still hindering Rhine river shipping in Germany after rain

Low water levels following a drought and heatwave in western Europe continue to hinder shipping through the Rhine river in Germany, commodity traders said on Wednesday, with rain in past days generating only a moderate rise in water levels.

Low water is hampering shipping on all the river south of Duisburg and Cologne, including the chokepoint of Kaub. Vessels are generally only able to sail about half full, although the volumes they can load have risen slightly, traders said.

But cargo is still being delivered, with loads being carried by several vessels instead of one, traders said.

Shallow water means vessel operators impose surcharges on freight rates to compensate for vessels not sailing fully loaded, increasing costs for cargo owners.

Only moderate rainfall is forecast in the coming days in river catchment areas, so no major improvement is expected, traders said.

The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities such as grains, minerals, ores, coal and oil products, including heating oil.

German companies faced supply bottlenecks and production problems in summer 2022 after a drought and heat wave led to unusually low water levels on the Rhine.

 

 

 

 

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