Global Ag News for July 29.24

TOP HEADLINES

US court rejects EPA denials of 2022 small refinery biofuel waivers

A federal appeals court said on Friday it rejected the Environmental Protection Agency’s decision in 2022 to deny small oil refineries temporary waivers from the nation’s biofuels blending program, and sent the matter back to the agency for review.

The decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia is a win for the refining industry, which has long opposed federal requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard that they add biofuels such as corn-based ethanol into the nation’s fuel.

The court’s opinion, and details of the decision, were sealed.

The RFS was designed to help farmers and to reduce U.S. petroleum imports, but oil refiners – particularly smaller independent ones – say the program imposes costs that put their businesses at risk. The EPA can award exemptions to small refiners if they prove the obligations cause them undue harm.

In 2022, the agency rejected a slew of such requests, triggering the legal battle that was spearheaded by refiner Sinclair Wyoming Refining Company and joined by others.

The biofuel industry, including producers of corn-based ethanol, have long fought the small refinery waiver program, arguing that it has been overused in a way that helps the oil industry but hurts American farmers.

Sinclair did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Biofuels groups said they were “extremely disappointed.”

“We will evaluate our next steps, which may include seeking further review of today’s decision. Our coalition remains resolute and committed to protecting and defending the proper implementation of the RFS,” the Renewable Fuels Association, Growth Energy and the American Coalition for Ethanol said in a statement on Friday.

The EPA said it was reviewing the decision.

In a separate but related case last year, a U.S. appeals court struck down the EPA’s 2023 blanket denials of small refinery exemptions.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/2 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 14; Soymeal down $4.00; Soyoil down 0.23.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 27 in SRW, down 24 1/2 in HRW, down 35 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans down 34 1/4; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil down 3.25.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 52 1/2 in SRW, down 39 in HRW, down 25 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12; Soybeans down 69 1/2; Soymeal down $14.80; Soyoil down 2.19.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 17.0% in SRW, down 14.8% in HRW, down 18.8% in HRS; Corn is down 16.5%; Soybeans down 18.4%; Soymeal down 9.0%; Soyoil down 9.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 17 yuan; Soymeal down 70; Soyoil down 110; Palm oil down 50; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 33.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 33 ringgit (-0.84%) at 3909.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 50 Corn; 44 Soybeans; 1,166 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 26 were: SRW Wheat up 5,354 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,104, Corn down 1,668, Soybeans down 22,277, Soymeal down 10,945, Soyoil up 2,763.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers developed over the weekend as a front settled into the Dakotas. The front moved east on Sunday, but additional fronts will move through this week and could produce more showers. Temperatures will be above normal this week, creating stress for those that do not see much rainfall. Cooler conditions develop at least briefly behind a couple of fronts moving through next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Pockets of showers and thunderstorms developed this weekend while temperatures continued to rise in most areas. Those that did not see rainfall saw increased stress. With a couple of fronts moving through this week, some showers will be possible, but coverage is likely to be quite low. Despite the fronts, temperatures should continue to be hot and stressful, reducing soil moisture and crop health.

Midwest: An upper-level low moved into the region over the weekend, spreading areas of showers and thunderstorms. A front moving through early this week should bring more, but sweep the showers out as well. Another front moves through mid-late week with more potential showers and thunderstorms. Both fronts are focal points for severe weather as temperatures rise and create stress where showers don’t occur. Models have upped the potential for milder air moving in next week that could limit that stress though.

Delta: An upper-level low brought scattered showers over the weekend but moves out Sunday. Fronts moving through the Corn Belt are unlikely to keep the showers going for much of the region this week. Instead, temperatures should be high and stressful where soil moisture runs out quicker. That may take a while as most areas have good soil moisture for now.

Canadian Prairies: Scattered showers fell over far northern areas, but most areas stayed dry over the weekend. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but the coverage of precipitation is forecast to be low. After some mild days this weekend, temperatures will be increasing again, though potential for extreme heat is low with the fronts passing through. Milder air may move in next week, especially across the east.

Brazil: A front brought some scattered showers into southern areas this weekend, which continue on Monday before moving out. Another front may move into southern areas this weekend with showers into next week. This increase in shower activity is better as the region has endured long stretches of dryness over the winter bounded by heavy rain. Wheat could use more consistent lighter rain as it gets closer to flowering after late planting.

Argentina: It was largely dry over the weekend despite a front moving through. Some northeastern areas saw a little rain but most areas stayed unfavorably dry. The dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat in the short term and for the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Another front moves through late this week and weekend but forecast rainfall has fallen from last week.

Europe: A system brought heavy rain to portions of France and Germany again this weekend, unfavorable for wet areas. That system moved into eastern areas on Sunday but showers are only occurring across the north. Southeastern areas continue to deal with heat and dryness concerns for small grains and cotton. Spain and Italy have also been unfavorably dry for their summer crop prospects. A small disturbance will move through central Europe this week very slowly, getting some rain into needed areas but also more rain into France and Germany that do not need it.

Black Sea: The region was dry over the weekend as a system went through the Black Sea but didn’t bring any showers north. Another system moving into northern areas on Sunday will slowly press through the region this week. Areas of isolated or widely scattered showers are forecast through Wednesday. A disturbance moving through Europe will bring some additional showers this weekend into early next week as well. Rain may occur for some lucky areas, but will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures are also forecast to return to the hot conditions that have caused drought and stress over the last several weeks.

Australia: Northeastern areas received some rain over the weekend, but northeastern New South Wales was the only area to see anything substantial. Soil moisture in much of Queensland has been falling and rain is needed here. A couple of fronts will go through western areas with scattered showers early this week. One of these fronts will bring showers to southern areas later this week, but will leave much of the eastern wheat belt dry.

The player sheet for 7/26 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 14,500 corn, sellers of 18,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 10,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America on Friday.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 105,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 320,000 metric tons of rice.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

China’s Soymeal Slumps Most This Year as Port Stockpiles Mount

China’s soymeal slumped by the most this year in Asian trading on Monday, as high inventories and sluggish demand weighed on prices.

Soybean meal on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell as much as 3.6% before paring some losses. The market has been swamped by a large volume of imported soybeans, while feed consumption hasn’t been as robust as expected.

China has been scooping up Brazilian soybeans at a rapid pace as buyers take advantage of lower prices, even as its purchases from the new US crop have been limited. Ample arrivals of the oilseed have led to huge stockpiles of beans and meal in the country shortly ahead of the US season.

Stockpiles of soymeal surged to their highest level in more than five years. Imported soybean inventories at China’s ports are at their highest in over two years.

 

India Boosts Planting of Oilseeds After Better Monsoon Rains

India’s farmers increased sowing of oilseeds and pulses as the nation records monsoon rains higher than the seasonal average.

Oilseed crops have been planted on about 17.17 million hectares (42.4 million acres), up 3.8% from a year earlier, according to a statement from the farm ministry on Friday. India is the world’s top importer of edible oils.

The area allocated to pulses rose to 10.2 million hectares, a jump of 14% from a year earlier. Corn rose and rice was little changed.

The country’s monsoon runs from June to September and rains are so far 3% above normal, according to the India Meteorological Department. Monsoon crop sowing normally begins in late May and peaks in July, with harvesting typically starting in late September.

 

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 3% Above Normal as of July 28

India has so far received 430.2 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 418.9 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on July 28.

• Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 24% above normal
• The eastern and northeastern region got 17% below normal rains

 

German Grain Harvest Seen at 41 Million Tons for Season: DBV

Total grains harvested across Germany will likely be around 41 million tons, farmers association Deutscher Bauernverband said in their latest forecast for the season on Monday.

• Recurring rainfall over the past two weeks has delayed harvesting, with only about a third of wheat, rye and triticale areas threshed with signs of a slightly below-average result for these areas
• The winter barley harvest has largely been completed
• The DBV sees signs of a slightly “below-average rapeseed harvest”
• Dry weather is urgently needed for the next few weeks: DBV

 

Kazakhstan Extends Wheat-Import Ban Until End 2024: IFX

Kazakhstan extended until year-end an import ban on wheat which covers all means of transport, Interfax reported, citing a government statement.

• Threat of Russian wheat being imported illegally and then re-exported remains: IFX
• Says higher grain harvest than last year in Kazakhstan is also taken into account
• Ban doesn’t apply to transit
• IFX cites agriculture ministry as saying that illegal wheat imports caused local prices to fall sharply

 

Indonesia May Palm Oil Exports Fall to 1.966m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell to 1.966m tons in May from 2.18m tons in April, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output fell to 4.253m tons from 4.51m tons in April
• Palm oil stockpiles rise to 4.092m tons from 3.74m tons in April
• Palm oil domestic consumption rose to 1.943m tons from 1.89m tons in April
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption rose to 907k tons from 842,000 tons in April

 

Ukraine Reaps 20m Tons of Grains in Early Harvest: Vysotskyi

Ukraine is harvesting at a faster pace due to hot weather, acting Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said in a local television interview.

• Farmers have so far reaped 20m tons of early grains, compared with 11m tons a year ago, Vysotskyi said
• The early grains harvest is seen at 27m tons
  • Between 9m tons and 10m tons will be consumed domestically
• Rapeseed harvest is seen at 4m tons

 

CORN/CEPEA: Despite good harvesting pace, prices increase

Quotations of corn rose in the domestic market this week, influenced by increases of the international market and of dollar values. Although the harvesting has been moving at a faster pace compared to the year before, producers are again away from closing deals, expecting more significant price rises.

Abroad, increases are related to expectations of firm international demand and to concerns with the forecast of dry and warm weather in the United States, which can affect the development of the crops.

Producers in Brazil are more focused on crop activities instead of trades. However, the fast pace of the harvesting and the high supply limit more significant price rises, leading some producers to end up closing trades at lower price levels.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose 3% between July 18 and 25, closing at BRL 58.91 per 60-kilo bag on July 25. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values moved up 2.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.6% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) between July 18 and 25.

In the partial of July (15 producing days), Brazil shipped 1.58 million tons of corn, which accounts for only 37% of the total exported in July/23. Anec indicates that international sales are likely to amount 4.56 million tons in July.

At the port of Paranaguá (PR), quotations increased 3.1% between July 18 and 25. In Santos (SP), prices upped 6.1%.

HARVEST – Conab indicated that the harvesting of the second crop reached 79.6% of the total until July 21, moving up 5.4 percentage points in one week and 31 p.p. compared to that verified in 2023.

As for the second crop in Mato Grosso, 96.62% of the area had been harvested until July 19 (data from Imea). In Paraná, activities reached 76% up to July 22 – data from Seab/Deral.

Concerning the summer crop, Conab indicated that the harvesting reached 97.8% of the area until July 21.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices move up for seven days in a row in Brazil

Soybean prices rose for seven consecutive days in the domestic market, due to increases of the exchange rate (BRL/USD) and in the international market, which encouraged exports. Price rises were also related to the fact that soybean producers were away from closing deals involving large volumes of the 2023/24 season, since they prefer to wait for better opportunities.

US dollar quotations rose 1.1% from July 18-25, at BRL 5.641 yesterday. On July 24, it closed at BRL 5.657, the highest level since January 10, 2022.

According to data from Secex, the daily average of soybean shipments in the partial of this month (15 producing days) is at 514.4 thousand tons, 11.4% more than that observed in the same period last year.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) upped 3.9% from July 18-25, closing at BRL 141.35 per 60-kg bag on July 25. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 5.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 137.37 per 60-kg bag yesterday. Both Indexes increased for seven days in a row. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) moved up 3.7% from July 18-25. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations increased 4%.

BYPRODUCTS – The higher demand from poultry and swine sectors boosted quotations of the soybean meal. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices upped 0.8% between July 18 and 25.

The soy oil quotations rose 3.5% between July 18 and 25, at BRL 6,278.57 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on July 25. On July 24, quotations closed at BRL 6,323.33 per ton, the highest level since March 10, 2023. The increase is related to the higher demand from the biodiesel sector.

Abroad, price rises are related to the firm demand for soybean in the US and to concerns about the dry and warm weather in the Midwest of the country.

 

Strategie Grains cuts EU rapeseed and sunseed crop forecasts again

Reuters News

PARIS, July 29 (Reuters) – Strategie Grains has again reduced its monthly forecasts for this year’s rapeseed and sunflower seed harvests in the European Union as unfavourable weather continued to affect the bloc’s main oilseed crops, the consultancy said.

The firm cut its outlook for the EU’s 2024 rapeseed harvest for the third time in a row. It pegged output at 17.27 million metric tons, down from 17.80 million forecast a month ago and now nearly 14% below last year’s level.

Expected production was revised down mainly in Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Romania, reflecting both low yields and lower acreage, it said in a summary of an EU oilseed crop report.

Rapeseed harvesting is in its latter stages in Europe.

Analysts have been anticipating a smaller EU rapeseed crop after months of heavy rain, including in France where the farm ministry estimates production could fall by almost 8%.

For sunflower seed, harvested in late summer and autumn, Strategie Grains lowered its EU forecast for the second month in a row, now projecting the crop at 9.65 million tons compared with 10.49 million previously.

The steep revision put the forecast below last year’s production of 9.80 million tons.

After a wet spring, sunflower crops in eastern Europe have endured a hot, dry start to summer. Strategie Grains said it had reduced its expectations for Romania and Bulgaria, and to a lesser extent Hungary, as July weather was seen hurting yields.

The European Commission last week similarly reduced its monthly forecasts of EU rapeseed and sunflower seed production, now projecting the crops at 18.38 million and 10.14 million tons, respectively.

For the smaller EU soybean crop, Strategie Grains kept its 2024 outlook unchanged at 2.99 million tons, a 4.6% increase on last year in which higher planting is expected to offset a lower yield.

EU rapeseed and sunflower seed stocks were expected to be tight in 2024/25, despite upward revisions to projected imports, and this should lead to higher prices than previously thought, Strategie Grains said.

However, uncertainty over the impact of the EU’s incoming deforestation regulation, which will notably cover imports of soybean and palm oil, could lead to volatility in oilseed markets in the short term, it added.

 

Indonesia’s May palm oil exports down 11.8% y/y, GAPKI says

Indonesia’s palm oil exports in May were 1.97 million metric tons, an 11.8% drop from a year earlier, data from Indonesian palm oil association GAPKI showed on Monday.

Crude palm oil output in Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer, was 3.89 million tons in May, GAPKI said. That took stocks to 4.05 million tons at end-May end, a 9.38% monthly increase.

 

South Africa Committee Cuts 2024 Total Corn-Crop Estimate 0.5%

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee trimmed its forecast for production of both varieties of the grain in the 2023-24 season by 0.5% to 13.3 million tons.

• In its sixth estimate, the CEC sees the harvest of white corn unchanged at 6.35 million tons, while it expects the size of the yellow variety of the crop to decrease 1% compared with its prior forecast, it says in an emailed report
• The total estimated crop would be 18% smaller than the 16.3 million tons harvested in the prior season

 

US Pork Production Up 2.5% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production rises to 515m pounds for the week ending July 27 from 503m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter up 2.7% from a week ago to 2.436m head
• Beef production up 2.7% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 2.7%
• For the year, beef production is 1.5% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.2% above

 

Brazil tells World Organization for Animal Health Newcastle disease outbreak ended

The Brazilian government has notified the World Organization for Animal Health about the end of a Newcastle disease outbreak in the country, according to a statement on Friday from the Agriculture Ministry.

The statement said the government now awaits importers’ nod to lift trade embargoes associated with the outbreak.

 

 

 

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