Global Ag News For July 28.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Key elements of EU-U.S. trade deal agreed on Sunday

The U.S. and the European Union agreed on a framework trade deal on Sunday, ending months of uncertainty for industry and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.

Here are the main elements of the deal:

• Almost all EU goods entering the U.S. will be subject to a 15% baseline tariff, including cars, which now face 27.5%, as well as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The 15% tariff is the maximum tariff and is not added to any existing rates.
• However, the U.S. is to announce the result of its 232 trade investigations in two weeks and decide separately on tariff rates for chips and pharmaceuticals. Whatever U.S. decisions come later on these sectors will be “on a different sheet of paper”, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
• The U.S. and EU will have zero-for-zero tariffs on all aircraft and their components, certain chemicals, certain generic drugs, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials. More products would be added. The situation for spirits is still to be established.
• Tariffs on European steel and aluminium will stay at 50%, but von der Leyen said these would later be cut and replaced by a quota system.
• The EU pledged to make $750 billion in strategic purchases, covering oil, gas, nuclear, fuel and chips during Trump’s term.
• Under the deal, the EU pledged to buy U.S. military equipment and European companies are to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over the course of Trump’s second term.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil down 0.14.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal down $3.90; Soyoil up 0.02.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 37 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 3/4; Soybeans down 11 1/2; Soymeal down $8.40; Soyoil up 3.09.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.0% in SRW, down 6.3% in HRW, down 2.1% in HRS; Corn is down 13.5%; Soybeans down 0.7%; Soymeal down 13.1%; Soyoil up 41.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 40 yuan; Soymeal down 24; Soyoil down 46; Palm oil down 68; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is down 25.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 25 ringgit (-0.59%) at 4248.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 780 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 25 were: SRW Wheat down 1,541 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,628, Corn up 19,204, Soybeans down 2,908, Soymeal down 6,991, Soyoil up 1,275.

 

HEAT RISKS ACROSS THE U.S., WHILE WET SPELLS IN THE CENTRAL REGION BENEFIT MAJOR CROPS

What to Watch:

• Heat risks in most of the U.S.
• Wet spells in the Central U.S.

Northern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend. A front will be slowly moving through early this week with more scattered showers and another will be moving through late week and weekend with more. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

Central/Southern Plains: Areas of isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but most areas were hot and dry. A front will slowly drop through the region this week, with showers waning as it gets into the Southern Plains, but with temperatures significantly falling. Showers will return to northern areas next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

Midwest: A stalled front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the southern half of the region over the weekend. Temperatures are rising again and would be stressful, but soil moisture is relatively high in most areas. A slow-moving front will push through this week with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures. Conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers over the weekend continue this week as the temperatures remain hot. A stronger front will move into the region later in the week with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may get hung up in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas.

Canadian Prairies: Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, but missed key drier areas across the northern end of the region. Areas farther south saw some good rainfall that was highly beneficial with crops continuing to fill and edge toward harvest. Though some showers will be possible in the southwest early this week, much of the region will be drier until the weekend, when another system will move through. Whether it has scattered showers or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

Brazil: A front moved into the south over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rain, favorable for building soil moisture for winter wheat. Showers may continue on Monday as well and a new front will move into southern areas with more showers this weekend as the weather pattern starts to become a bit more active with fronts moving into the south. Rain could disrupt what remains of the corn harvest, though the percentage of the crop yet to harvest has been steadily decreasing.

Argentina: A front brought scattered showers to northern areas over the weekend. Another front will move through later this week as the pattern starts to get a little more active going into the end of winter. Winter wheat is still vegetative but should be heading in August, when soil moisture will be more important.

Europe: Scattered showers moved across central and eastern areas over the weekend, helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays for the winter wheat harvest. Showers will go pinwheeling through much of the continent throughout the week, though they probably will not form over Spain. Corn areas should find the conditions mostly favorable, while the rain could cause delays or quality issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest.

 

The player sheet for 7/25 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 500 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN, SOY SALES: Exporters sold 140,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to South Korea for 2025-26 delivery; 102,870 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for 2025-26 delivery; and 142,500 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to Mexico for 2025-26 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said via its daily reporting system.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a second private deal on Thursday, without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Friday. That was in addition to the 65,000 to 75,000 tons bought by MFG in another private deal on Thursday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 85,200 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from Canada in an international tender on Friday
• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 225,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Cattle on Feed Placements Fell to 1.44M Head in June

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more fell 7.9% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

• Analysts were expecting a drop of 1.8%
• The US feedlot herd as of July 1 were down 1.6% y/y to 11.124m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 4.4% to 1.707m head

 

LIVESTOCK: US Cattle Herd Falls to 94.2 Million Head

The US July 1 herd fell 1.3% from July 2023, according to the USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report.

• Number of cows and heifers that have calved fell by 0.8% vs July 2023
• Beef cows down 1.2% vs July 2023 and milk cows rose by 0.5%
• Heifers 500+ pounds fell by 2% vs July 2023
• The 2025 calf crop fell by 1.4% vs July 2023

 

Milei Cuts Export Levies on Argentine Soybeans in Nod to Farmers

President Javier Milei said he’s chopping tariffs on Argentina’s exports of meat and crops including soybean products to appease the country’s farmers, who view the libertarian leader as falling short on his free-trade promises.

Argentina’s influential farming associations have been seeking relief from the levies, which have held back rural development in Argentina and helped make Brazil the region’s undisputed agricultural powerhouse.

Tariffs on soy meal and soy oil — Argentina is the top exporter of both — will fall to 24.5% from 31%. For soybeans, the rate drops to 26% from 33%, and for corn to 9.5% from 12%. Several beef cuts will now be taxed 5% instead of 6.75%.

Argentina’s export tariffs are “a great scourge that should never have existed,” Milei said at an annual cattle show in Buenos Aires. “These reductions are permanent and won’t be reversed while I’m in power. Extinguishing export tariffs is an obsession of our administration.”

Cattle feed on grain from a trough at a farm in San Jose de la Esquina, Argentina.

Lower rates will make Argentina more competitive as global trade is redrawn by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

While Milei is ideologically opposed to the levies, he still needs the billions of dollars in annual revenue that come from crop and meat cargoes, especially soy, to achieve his priority of posting budget surpluses.

While Milei has been unshackling agriculture from years of government intervention, export tariffs remain the elephant in the room. The cuts announced Saturday will help growers, who have strongly backed Milei but are struggling to turn a profit amid low global crop prices.

Nicolás Pino, head of the Argentine Rural Society, called on Milei to keep shrinking the tax burden on farmers.

“That includes, above all else, scrapping export tariffs,” he said, addressing the event just before Milei. “They’re worse than the plague, floods or drought.”

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Demand increases, but high freight values limit price rises in Brazil

The increase of both international and domestic demand for the soybean from Brazil boosted export premiums. However, decreases in the international market and of the exchange rate limited the upward trend. Moreover, high freight values reduced the income of soybean producers in Brazil – the increase has been observed since last month, but it has been intensified over the last weeks.

Freight values from the west of Paraná state to the port of Paranaguá (PR) surpassed BRL 200/ton this week, 20% more than that verified last month, according to players surveyed by Cepea.

Therefore, producers prefer to trade the product to deliver in the coming months instead of the spot market (seven day-delivery). Due to the end of the second corn crop harvesting, the availability of trucks is likely to increase, which can press down freight values.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Index moves up, but still drops in the partial of July

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) has been increasing over the last days. However, it is still moving down 4% in the partial of this month (until July 24), and the monthly average is 7% smaller compared to that in June, in nominal terms.

Sellers have limited the supply in regions where the harvesting is delayed, such as in São Paulo, sustaining quotations. On the other hand, in the Central-West, the good pace of crop activities boosts the availability of corn, pressing them down. Moreover, players surveyed by Cepea say that the freight increase reinforces price rises.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, between July 17 and 24, corn values moved up 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) but dropped 1.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

China announces plan to boost consumption of agricultural products

China on Sunday announced a plan to promote consumption of agricultural products and “optimise green and high-quality products to meet multi-level consumer needs”, its Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said.

 

MPOB EXPECTS PALM OIL EXPORTS TO RECOVER IN SECOND HALF OF 2025

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects palm oil exports to recover in the second half of this year due to stronger festival season demand in key markets.

“The demand, particularly from India, is due to the need to replenish stock for the festive season, attractive palm oil pricing and lower import duty on crude vegetable oils,” MPOB director-general Datuk Dr Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir told Bernama.

Ahmad Parveez was in New Delhi last week to speak at a conference organised by the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association (IVPA).

In the first half of this year, Malaysian exports of palm oil and palm-based products dipped 7.4 per cent to 11.39 million tonnes compared with the January-June period last year, according to MPOB figures.

Palm oil exports were recorded at 6.95 million tonnes during the half-year period, representing a drop of 7.7 per cent over the corresponding period in 2024 as demand weakened in India, China, the European Union, Bangladesh and Egypt.

Nonetheless, despite a drop in the overall palm oil exports in the first half of 2025, Malaysia saw a growth in volumes to the Philippines, Iran, Kenya and Nigeria.

Ahmad Parveez said that although export tonnage had dropped, Malaysia’s earnings from palm oil and palm products during the January-June 2025 period surged 9.3 per cent to RM53.43 billion compared with the same period last year. The value of palm oil exports was almost RM34 billion.

Malaysian palm oil has gained in geographical reach in recent years.

Malaysia’s full-year palm oil exports by volume this year are projected to be 5.3 per cent lower than the 16.9 million tonnes recorded in 2024.

On the Indian market, Ahmad Parveez said demand remains particularly strong in the food services, household, and food manufacturing sectors.

However, there are certain challenges, and one of them is India’s import tax.

“A key concern is India’s import policy, particularly the frequent adjustments to import duties. The recent hike in effective duties on crude palm oil to 27.5 per cent, and on refined palmolein to 35.75 per cent, has significantly narrowed palm oil’s natural price advantage compared to soft oils such as soybean and sunflower,” Ahmad Parveez said.

“While we acknowledge India’s policy objective to strengthen domestic oilseed production under the National Mission on Edible Oils-Oil Palm, such measures have made palm oil imports increasingly cost-sensitive and less predictable,” he said.

The price premium of palm oil, along with ample global soybean oil supplies, has led to a drop in palm oil’s share in India’s vegetable oil imports to 46 per cent this year from 59 per cent in 2023, Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) chief executive officer Belvinder Sron said at the same New Delhi industry conference.

However, Malaysia’s share in Indian palm oil imports reached 35 per cent in the first half of this year compared with 30 per cent in 2023, Sron said in her presentation.

 

Ukraine’s Grain Harvest Running 45% Below Last Year: Ministry

Ukraine has harvested 10.3m tons of grains so far this season, more than 45% below the 19m tons produced in the same period a year earlier, according to the Economy Ministry.

• The grain was harvested from 3.23m hectares (8m acres) vs 5.87m hectares last year, Economy Ministry says on it website.
• The total includes:
  • 7.1m tons of wheat vs 14.7m year ago
  • 2.8m tons of barley, down 26% y/y
  • The grain harvest also includes legumes
  • 29% of area planted with grains and legumes has been harvested

 

USDA attaché sees improving weather for Australian wheat crop

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Canberra:

“After a challenging start to the winter crop season in the southern production regions — due to low soil moisture and below-average rainfall — widespread rain in the first two weeks of July has improved conditions. Combined with a favorable rainfall outlook for the months ahead, above-average wheat and barley production is forecast. FAS/Canberra projects a rise in wheat exports in MY (marketing year) 2025/26, following weaker-than-expected shipments during the first eight months of MY 2024/25. Higher ending stocks for MY 2024/25 will boost wheat available for export for the forecast year. In contrast, barley exports are forecast to decline in MY 2025/26 due to strong export volumes so far in MY 2024/25, tightening supply for the forecast year.”

 

Brazil Minister Says He Supports Country’s 18% Ethanol Tariff

The American market is very important for Brazil, just as the Brazilian sugar market is important for the US, there is a balance, and that is why Brazil should continue to have an 18% tariff on ethanol, Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira said in an interview with CNN Brasil.

• Speaking about the interest from the US in Brazil’s so-called critical minerals, Silveira said the country welcomes foreign capital, but safeguarding national soverignity at the same time
• Silveira said the cost of the cooking gas voucher program to be launched by the government will cost 5.6 billion reais, up from 2.4 billion reais
• Decree setting up the program will be signed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Aug. 5, Silveira said*

 

US Beef Production Falls 2.6% This Week, Pork Down: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 474m pounds for the week ending July 26 from 487m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 2.5% from a week ago to 549m head
• Pork production down 0.5% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 0.2%
• For the year, beef production is 3.4% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2% below

 

US Poultry Slaughter Rose 4.5% Y/y in June: USDA

Slaughter rose to 5.78 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight rose 4.8% in June from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 4.1% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem up 8.3% y/y

 

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 8% Above Normal as of July 27

India has so far received 440.1 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 408.9 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on July 27.

• Rainfall in the central region was at 26% above normal
• The eastern and northeastern region got 24% below normal rains

 

 

 

 

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