Global Ag News For July 23.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump announces trade deal with Japan, including 15% tariff

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a trade deal with Japan that he said will result in Japan investing $550 billion into the United States and paying a 15% reciprocal tariff.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump added that Japan will open to trade, including cars, trucks, rice and certain agricultural products.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 0.35.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 5 1/2 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil up 0.13.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 1/4 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, down 28 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 3/4; Soybeans up 3 3/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil up 2.99.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.1% in SRW, down 4.4% in HRW, down 0.6% in HRS; Corn is down 12.8%; Soybeans up 1.8%; Soymeal down 10.5%; Soyoil up 40.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 16 yuan; Soymeal up 20; Soyoil unchanged; Palm oil up 56; Corn down 14 — Malaysian Palm is up 49.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 49 ringgit (+1.15%) at 4313.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 780 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 22 were: SRW Wheat up 2,281 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,200, Corn up 18,351, Soybeans up 6,875, Soymeal up 8,129, Soyoil up 7,601.

 

MIXED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE U.S., WHILE WET SPELLS IN THE CENTRAL REGION BENEFIT MAJOR CROPS

What to Watch:

• Mixed temperatures in the U.S.
• Wet spells in the Central U.S.

 

Northern Plains: Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region this week and probably next week as well. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and east and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

Central/Southern Plains: Heavy rain developed over Kansas on Monday somewhat unexpectedly. Disturbances should move through the north while the south gets largely hot and dry. A ridge in the region will strengthen this weekend and may push these disturbances north and east next week. Though some isolated showers may form in the High Plains, this would generally cause hotter and drier conditions going into August that may start to have an impact on corn and soybeans. Models are not in complete agreement with this assessment, however.

Midwest: A front will slowly move through the region again this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms, especially to the northwest. Temperatures south of the front are increasing and could cause stress to the areas that are a bit drier. The front could stall in the southeast this weekend with showers continuing there. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week as the pattern largely stays active going into early August. We could see temperatures falling behind that system as well, bringing down stress levels.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers went through over the weekend and likely continue for much of the next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. Temperatures will continue to be stressfully hot if rain is too sporadic and light. Another small disturbance moving through the Gulf of America this week could become tropical before moving into the region later this week, which could increase the rainfall across the south.

Canadian Prairies: The pattern is very active and almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others as spring wheat and canola continue into their reproductive stages. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now.

 

The player sheet for 7/22 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending July 18 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.082m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.688m bbl vs 23.635m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Herd Seen Lowest Since 2017

July 1 herd seen falling y/y to 11.21m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• That would be the lowest July 1 amount in eight years
• June placements seen down 1.8% y/y
• Marketings seen falling 3.8% y/y

 

CROP TOUR: North Dakota Spring Wheat Yields Seen Down From 2024

Hard red spring wheat yields will average 50 bushels per acre, according to samples taken from 167 fields Tuesday on the first day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour.

• Compares with 52.5 bushels per acre forecast last year
• Tour participants traveled from Fargo to Bismarck in North Dakota
• Yield is lower than US Department of Agriculture’s estimate of 59 bushels per acre — which would match the record yield from 2024
• NOTE: The three-day tour will release full estimates Thursday

 

CROP TOUR: North Dakota Wheat Yields Near Record With Ample Rain

Yield potential for spring wheat in North Dakota was nearly on par with the US Department of Agriculture’s outlook for a record after ample rainfall during the growing season, according to scouts on the first day of the annual Wheat Quality Council’s three-day crop tour.

• Yields averaged 54.5 bushels per acre after six stops on one route that went through Cass, Steele, Traill, Griggs, Stutsman and Kidder counties
  • That’s just below the findings of 55.7 bushels on the same route last year
  • USDA earlier this month estimated wheat yields across the state at 59 bushels, which would match the overall record from last year, even though production will ease after farmers planted fewer acres
• Overall, many wheat fields had consistent stands, with plants at roughly an equal height
  • Instances of crop diseases or insect pressure were relatively minimal
• Meanwhile, scattered rains were moving through much of North Dakota, which vies with Kansas as the biggest wheat-producing US state
  • While some wheat fields were turning golden and maturing, the precipitation could boost yields where plants are still green
• NOTE: The tour will release full estimates for the first day of scouting later Tuesday, with results from the entire tour due Thursday

 

Brazil Corn Exports Seen Reaching 4.14 Million Tons In July

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 12.11 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 12.19 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.4 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 2.25 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.14 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 4.6 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Argus Sees French Wheat Harvest Climbing ‘Sharply’ in 2025

French soft-wheat harvest is expected to rise “sharply” to 33.4m tons from historically low production of 25.6m tons last year, according to an Argus Media field survey carried out from July 17-22.

• That, however, remains below averages from recent years, after bad weather slowed sowing and reduced planted areas
• The national average yield is estimated at 7.44 tons/ha, an increase of 3.4% compared with the 2017-2023 average
• “After a catastrophic production in 2024, the return to normal levels brings a little relief,” said Alexandre Willekens, senior analyst at Argus Media.
• Even though harvest isn’t complete, the quality of the crop seems good, with protein level exceeding 11% overall

 

Russia trims 2025 wheat harvest and export forecasts

• Drought hit major Russian wheat-producing regions
• Russia aims to remain world’s top wheat exporter
• Russia maintains 2025 grain harvest forecasts
• Better harvest in Stavropol, central Russia to offset losses

Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, has trimmed its forecasts for the 2025 wheat harvest and for wheat exports in the 2025/26 marketing season, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut told a government meeting on Tuesday.

Lut said the wheat harvest was now expected to be 88-90 million metric tons, versus the previous forecast of 90 million tons. Exports this season are now expected to be 43-44 million tons, down from a previous forecast of 45 million tons.

Drought has hit major Russian grain regions this year, with the grain crop in Rostov, the top grain and wheat-producing region in 2024, expected to be 8 million tons, down 30% on last year.

“Taking into account all the measures being implemented and the progress of sowing, our forecasts for exports in the current season, which began on July 1, are for grain to be 53-55 million tons and for wheat to be 43-44 million tons,” Lut said.

Lut acknowledged the impact of bad weather but said the ministry maintained its forecast for a 2025 grain crop of at least 135 million tons, including 88-90 million tons of wheat.

“There are, of course, weather-related challenges – in certain regions, we have severe drought; in others, we are experiencing flooding, preventing us from starting the harvest,” Lut said.

Analysts said that a better than expected harvest in Stavropol, which is set to become Russia’s top wheat-producing region this year, as well as in central and Siberian regions, would offset the losses.

Lut said Russia exported 44 million tons of wheat last season. She noted that Russian wheat had gained access to 11 new markets, while seven countries had resumed purchases they had suspended.

She said Russia’s goal was to maintain its leading position in wheat, the country’s main agricultural commodity. She also noted that Russia had become the world’s largest exporter of barley.

Russia’s export volumes fell to their lowest level since 2008 at the start of July due to a late start to harvesting, and some European traders told Reuters that slow sales of new crop wheat were disrupting ship loadings at Russia’s Black Sea ports.

However, Russian traders and analysts said the first grain from Russia’s new crop had started to arrive on the market, and supplies were expected to match demand within a couple of weeks.

 

Indonesia May Palm Oil Exports Rise to 2.664m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose to 2.664m tons in May from 1.779m tons in April, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output fell to 4.561m tons from 4.904m tons in April
• Palm oil stockpiles fall to 2.916m tons from 3.046m tons in April
• Palm oil domestic consumption fell to 2.029m tons from 2.1m tons in April
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption fell to 1.039m tons from 1.046m tons in April

 

Favorable rainfall in Central Europe increases EU-27+UK wheat production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 EU-27 + UK WHEAT PRODUCTION: 147.9 [140.5-155.3] MILLION TONS, UP 1.2 % FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent favorable rains in Central Europe increased 2025/26 EU-27+UK wheat production to 147.9 [140.5-155.3] million metric tons (mmt). Production estimates include 140.34 mmt of soft wheat and 7.58 mmt of durum wheat.

Over the past two weeks, Europe has experienced mixed weather patterns across the continent, with cooler temperatures in Central Europe and warmer in the West. Favorable weather in France accelerated fieldwork, with 71% of the soft wheat crop harvested by July 14, according to FranceAgriMer. Above average rainfall in Poland, Austria, and parts of Germany has supported upward revisions to soft wheat yield estimates in those regions.

According to the latest weather forecasts, cool weather conditions should stay for the next two weeks in Western/Central Europe. Mixed precipitation is anticipated across the continent, which may affect the progress of wheat harvest for the rest of the countries.

 

Favorable rainfall increases Russian wheat production

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 83.2 [81.5-87.3] MILLION TONS, UP 1.6% FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent weather keeps 2025/26 Russian wheat production at 83.2 [81.5-87.3] million tons (MMT), but drought risk remains. Our estimate consists of 57.12 MMT of winter wheat and 26.05 MMT of spring wheat and does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

Over the past two weeks, the Southern, Volga, and Central District experienced warmer temperatures, while the Ural District saw cooler conditions. Spring wheat regions received above average precipitation (12-30 mm above normal), whereas persistent dryness in the Southern and North-Caucasian Districts led to a regional state of emergency in Krasnodar Krai.

According to the latest weather forecasts, warm and dry weather conditions should remain over the key winter wheat-producing Districts for the next two weeks, posing risk to yield potential. Light precipitation should occur across the spring wheat regions, benefiting spring wheat development.

 

Korea Sets Rice, Beef as ‘Red Line’ in US Tariff Talks: Yonhap

South Korea sets additional opening of rice and beef markets as a “red line” in upcoming trade negotiations with the US, Yonhap News reports, without citing anyone.

• South Korea made the decision at a govt meeting on Tuesday ahead of July 25 meeting with US in Washington
• Instead of the agricultural products directly tied to national food security, the government is considering expanding imports of fuel crops, such as corn used for bioethanol

 

Marcos Says Zero US Tariffs Only Apply on Some Products: Media

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. says that zero tariffs on US goods will only be imposed on certain products such as automobiles, ABS-CBN News reported.

• Marcos tells reporters after meeting with President Donald Trump that there were some markets that the US asked to be opened like for automobiles, saying that Manila will open that market and will no longer charge tariffs on it
• Trump said earlier that the Philippines is “going open market” with the US and “zero tariffs” as Washington set a 19% levy on the Southeast Asian nation
• Marcos says 19% tariff, which is lower than the 20% rate that the Trump administration earlier this month threatened to charge, is a “significant achievement”
• Marcos says the Philippines will increase imports of soy and wheat products as well as medicine from the US
  • Says “a lot of details” need to be worked out, but that the tariff template is at 19%, according to the report

 

US Milk Production Rose 3.4% Y/y in June, USDA Says

Agency releases report on website.

• Output for the 24 major-producing states was 18.47b lbs, 604m more than in June of last year
• Milk per cow averaged 2,045 lbs, a 1.6% increase from last year
• Estimated output for all the US rose 3.3% y/y to 19.233b lbs

 

China Calls Meeting With Top Hog Breeders to Tackle Overcapacity

China’s farm ministry has called major pig breeders and animal feed suppliers to a meeting on Wednesday as the government takes its fight against overcapacity to the food sector.

Private companies including Muyuan Foods Co. and New Hope Group Co., and state-owned Cofco Corp., have been invited to a forum in Beijing to discuss so-called high-quality growth in the sector, according to people with knowledge of the situation. Government officials from big producing provinces will also attend, they said, declining to be named discussing a sensitive matter.

An official at the farm ministry confirmed the meeting is taking place but declined to give details. Emails to Muyuan, New Hope and Cofco seeking comment weren’t immediately answered. The meeting was reported earlier by Chinese media outlet Cailian.

The gathering underscores Beijing’s concerns over prolonged deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. The price of pork, a staple of Chinese diets and a key component in the basket of goods that measures inflation, has dropped 15% over the past year due to ample supply and weak demand.

The authorities are already trying to control hog numbers, and measures that may be discussed at Wednesday’s meeting include penalties for producers selling pork below cost, the people said.

Beijing’s focus on curbing involution, a term used to describe fierce competition that delivers ever diminishing returns, in commodities sectors from steel to solar and coal has taken on renewed urgency in recent weeks.

The country is the world’s top producer and consumer of pork, and its hog industry serves as a bellwether for broader rural economic health. It’s also a key source of demand for foreign suppliers of the ingredients for animal feed, such as corn and soybeans.

 

 

 

 

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