Global Ag News For July 22.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China’s Citic to Develop Large Soybean, Corn Farms in Angola

A unit of Chinese state-owned conglomerate Citic Ltd. will develop large-scale soybean and corn farms in Angola, as the world’s second-largest economy seeks to secure long-term supply amid a trade war with the US.

Citic Construction Co. is leading a group that will invest $250 million over five years with an aim to develop as much as 100,000 hectares (386.1 square miles) of land, according to Fan Juntao, the managing director of the company in Angola.

While China and the US have agreed on a trade framework to resolve tariffs disputes, details remain unclear. The North Asian nation last month booked a rare shipment of soybean meal from Argentina and has sought out a range of other suppliers to reduce its dependence on the US.

Angola is focused on tapping the “opportunity created by global geopolitics, trade wars, blocked markets,” Agriculture and Forestry Minister Isaac dos Anjos said at a briefing in Luanda. “This first agreement with Citic gives us a guaranteed buyer for Angolan soy. We’ll sign another deal Thursday with a second Chinese firm to expand exports beyond 500,000 tons of food products.”

About 60% of the produce will be exported to China, while the balance will be used for local consumption, the minister said.

Clearing work has begun on 3,000 hectares in Cuanza Norte and 5,000 in Malanje, with planting to start once surface rights are secured, said Citic’s Fan at the briefing.

“Our forecast is to reach 10,000 to 20,000 hectares by next year,” Fan said. “Citic will lead an agriculture support fund and apply high-yield technology to produce eight tons per hectare of corn and five tons of soy.”

China imported 105 million tons of soybeans in 2024, mostly to feed livestock. The US supplied about one fifth, a proportion that has shrunk in recent years after Beijing turned to other producers such as Brazil in the wake of the trade war with the first Trump administration.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil down 0.19.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 8 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, down 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8 3/4; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $4.90; Soyoil up 0.04.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 34 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal down $5.40; Soyoil up 2.88.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.4% in SRW, down 6.3% in HRW, down 1.6% in HRS; Corn is down 12.5%; Soybeans up 1.3%; Soymeal down 12.3%; Soyoil up 40.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 37 yuan; Soymeal up 17; Soyoil down 52; Palm oil down 30; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 36.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 36 ringgit (+0.85%) at 4261.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 780 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 21 were: SRW Wheat up 2,270 contracts, HRW Wheat up 38, Corn down 1,259, Soybeans up 1,685, Soymeal down 1,553, Soyoil up 1,684.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 22 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Mixed temperatures conditions persist across the U.S., with a wet spell forecast for the Central over the next two weeks
• SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina’s Pampas to stay wet and warm; Brazil to remain warm and dry over the next two weeks
• EUROPE: Cool weather in the Central Europe with wet spells, while warmth and dry in Scandinavia over this week
• ASIA: Cool in the South and Warmth in the Southeast, While East Asia sees mixed temperatures and moderate to heavy rain over the next two weeks
• TELECONNECTIONS: Active MJO phase support stormy weather in Western Pacific nations

 

WET SPELLS IN THE PAMPAS, DRY IN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in the Pampas
• Dry in Brazil; isolated wet spells in far South

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday, mostly north and west. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north and west Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 7/21 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 8,000 corn, sellers of 5,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT EXPORT PRICES: Russian wheat export prices continued to rise last week due to the new crop coming to market too slowly and the risk of a lower harvest in the south of the country.
• WHEAT IMPORT DEAL: Bangladesh signed a deal on Sunday to import 700,000 tonnes of wheat annually from the United States over the next five years, in a move aimed at securing tariff relief from the Trump administration amid growing trade tensions, officials said.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 74% G/E, Soybeans 68%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 74% G/E vs 74% last week, and 67% a year ago
• Soybeans 68% G/E vs 70% last week, and 68% a year ago
• Spring wheat 52% G/E vs 54% last week, and 77% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 73% vs 63% last week, and 75% a year ago
• Cotton 57% G/E vs 54% last week, and 53% a year ago

 

US Inspected 984k Tons of Corn for Export, 365k of Soybeans

In week ending July 17, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 365k tons vs 151k the previous wk, 338k a yr ago
• Wheat: 732k tons vs 445k the previous wk, 291k a yr ago
• Corn: 984k tons vs 1,314k the previous wk, 991k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 17

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 17 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Germany-bound shipments made up 117k tons of the 365k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Nigeria led in wheat

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 55% Done as of July 17: AgRural

Compares with 40% a week earlier, according to an e-mailed report from AgRural.

Total corn output estimate for the 2025/25 season was raised to 136.3 million metric tons, from 130.6 million in June

• Increase driven by higher yields seen in the winter crop, which is now estimated at 108.9 million tons

 

Palm Oil Seen at 4,100-4,300 Ringgit/Ton Over Next Month: MPOC

Palm oil prices are expected to stay firm between 4,100-4,300 ringgit a ton over the next month, supported by festive demand from top buyer India and elevated US soybean oil prices, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

• Positive momentum in India’s monthly imports of Malaysian palm is expected to extend into 3Q, supported by restocking ahead of the Diwali festival in mid-October as well as favorable prices
  • India is projected to import about 2.9m tons of palm oil to meet its seasonal festive demand in 3Q
  • This strong buying interest will support palm prices
• Strong soybean oil prices have improved the competitiveness of palm oil, leading to a significant rebound in Malaysian palm exports to India since April, the MPOC said in a statement on Tuesday
  • US soy oil prices are expected to remain elevated through the remainder of the year and into 2026, amid projections of its rising use in biodiesel
  • For the first time, more than 50% of US soybean oil output is expected to be directed into biodiesel
• Still, any rally in vegetable oil prices will be capped by abundant global oilseed supply, particularly soybeans
  • South American soybean production is forecast to increase by 8m tons in 2026 to 245m tons; this ample supply will weigh on soybean prices

 

Russia Wheat Exports in 2025-26 Season Seen at 43m-44m Tons: IFX

Russia’s total grains exports are expected to be 53m-55m tons in the current agricultural season, Interfax reported Tuesday, citing Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut.

• Of the total, wheat exports are seen at 43m-44m tons
• That’s close to the volumes for the previous season

 

Iraq Harvests 5m Tons Wheat, Enough for Key State Ration Program

Iraq closed its wheat harvesting season with an output exceeded 5m tons, adding to the country’s reserves that will last until end-2026, Haider Nouri Al-Garaawi, director general of the state-run grain board company, said in a phone interview.

• The government didn’t need to import for its subsidized food-ration program for a third year in a row despite a drought, as the state’s new irrigation technologies helped farmers, he said
• “We have reserves of 1.5m tons from last year. This means we have total of more than 6.5m tons”
• The nation produced 5.194m tons in 2023, 6.302m in 2024 and 5.119m tons in 2025
• The production covers mainly the requirement of the subsidized food-ration program that consumes around 4.7m tons a year in the form of flour
• The grain board has increased its storage capacity by more than 2m tons in the past two years and is working to build more silos, said Al-Garaawi

 

EU Corn Yields Seen Lower After Bout of Hot Weather: MARS

Western and Northern Europe see strong winter crop yields, while Italy and Turkey lag behind, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report.

• “Yield expectations for winter crops are above average for Romania, Bulgaria, France, Spain, Ireland, the Nordic and Baltic countries thanks to sufficient water supplies”
• Excessive rainfall is complicating fieldwork and raising concerns about localized crop diseases in Finland and Estonia
• In Southern Germany, the spread of cicadas causing Stolbur disease continues to affect sugar beet and potato crops

 

AgRural raises Brazil corn output forecast on higher second crop yields

Brazil’s total corn production is expected to hit 136.3 million metric tons in 2024/25, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, raising its forecast from the 130.6 million tons projected in June.

The revision reflects higher yield estimates for the country’s second corn crop, which is seen hitting 108.9 million tons, AgRural said in a statement.

Farmers in Brazil’s center-south region had harvested 55% of their second-corn areas by last Thursday, the consultancy added, up 15 percentage points from the previous week but below the 82% reaped at the same time last year.

 

Russia may export 53-55 mln tons of grain in 2025-2026 season, Interfax cites minister

Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said Russian grain exports may reach 53-55 million metric tons in 2025-2026 season, the Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday.

She added that the ministry maintained the forecast for the grain crop at not less than 135 million tons, including 88-90 million tons of wheat in 2025.

The first grain from Russia’s new crop has arrived on the market, traders and analysts said on Monday, as top producing regions reported early harvesting results, with an expected drop in the Rostov region and a good harvest in Stavropol.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: High dollar values and smaller crop sustain prices in RS and PR

Wheat prices were firm last week in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná states because of the higher exchange rate (which increases the import parity) and the perspective of a smaller crop. Sellers continue firm about quotations, focused on the development of crops and/or on finishing activities of the current season. Purchasers, in turn, remain buying according to opportunities, preferring the imported product.

Between July 11 and 18, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values upped 0.28% and 0.26% in Rio Grande do Sul and in Paraná, respectively. In São Paulo and in Santa Catarina, on the other hand, quotations dropped 5.6% and 0.42%. The US dollar rose 0.7% in the same comparison.

 

Tunisia Says 2025 Grain Harvest Tops the Average of Past Decade

The grain harvest rose to 1.98m tons in 2025 vs 1.15m tons the previous year, the agriculture ministry says in a statement.

• Harvest tops annual average of 1.5m tons during the past decade
• This year’s harvest includes 1.24m tons of durum wheat and 637,000 tons of barley
• Soft wheat harvest reached about 78,000 tons
• Authorities are offering farmers 1,400 dinar for each ton of durum wheat and 900 dinars for each ton of barley
• By July 1, authorities collected from local farmers a total 0.51m tons of durum wheat and 0.24m tons of barley

 

Russia’s new-crop grain hits market as top producers report first harvest data

The first grain from Russia’s new crop has arrived on the market, traders and analysts said on Monday, as top producing regions reported early harvesting results, with an expected drop in the Rostov region and a good harvest in Stavropol.

“Stavropol’s grain harvest exceeded 8.5 million tons. So, this year we’ll definitely have enough bread,” Stavropol Governor Vladimir Vladimirov wrote on his Telegram channel. He said 85% of the grain-sown area had been harvested.

Three Russian grain traders, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the first new-crop grain from Stavropol is actively entering the market.

Russia’s export volumes fell to their lowest level since 2008 at the start of July due to a late start of the harvesting campaign, and some European traders told Reuters that slow sales of new crop wheat were disrupting the ship loadings at Russia’s Black Sea ports.

Stavropol, the region next to the Caucasus Mountains, is on track to become Russia’s top grain- and wheat-producing region this year after drought hit Rostov, the steppe region along the Don River.

Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar told the TASS news agency that the grain harvest forecast in the region had been cut by 30% to 8 million tons because of the drought, with about one-fifth of the seeded area there damaged.

In Krasnodar, another top-three grain-producing region, which borders Rostov in the north and Stavropol in the east, a better crop in the south is expected to compensate for losses from drought in the north.

“We expect that the regions where weather conditions were more favourable will help partially compensate for the losses through a high yield,” Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram.

He estimated the collected grain crop at 8.5 million tons and said the harvesting campaign will be over this week.

The governors provided no data on what share of the collected grain was wheat, but in previous years the biggest share of the three regions’ seeded area was under wheat. Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest wheat exporter.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the new-crop grain is coming mostly from southern regions, not central Russia, where the weather has been better and which is expected to compensate for crop losses in the south.

“Every day we see that the inflow of grain to the terminals is increasing,” Rylko said. He noted that, for the moment, there is a shortfall of new grain to cover fresh contracts but expects the gap to disappear within one or two weeks.

The Agriculture Ministry forecasts this year’s grain harvest at 135 million tons, including 90 million tons of wheat. This figure includes grain from Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine, which analysts do not include in their estimates.

As drought ravages Russia’s key agricultural regions, including Rostov, which supplied 12% of Russian wheat in 2024, the official estimate is in doubt. President Vladimir Putin has said publicly that there are questions over this year’s harvest.

 

Indian Farmers Increase Rice and Corn Sowing as of July 18

The area allocated to monsoon-sown rice crops has increased 12.4% from a year earlier to 17.67 million hectares (43.7 million acres) as of Friday, according to India’s agriculture ministry.

Farmers have planted corn on 7.12 million hectares of land, 15.4% higher from a year earlier, the ministry said. Pulses planting has increased to 8.2 million hectares, up 2.3% from a year earlier, it said.

Rains have been 6% above normal so far in the monsoon period that runs from June to September, according to the India Meteorological Department. Sowing normally begins in late May, while harvesting typically starts in late September.

 

US Egg Production Fell 5.3% in June From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 8.33b eggs in June vs 8.79b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs fell 6.1% y/y to 7.07b
• Hatching eggs down 0.3% to 1.25b

 

 

 

 

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