Global Ag News For July 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Spain reports bird flu outbreak on turkey farm

Spain has reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu on a fattening turkey farm in the southwestern region of Extremadura, the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) said, citing Spanish authorities.

The spread of avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has ravaged flocks around the world, disrupting supply and fuelling higher food prices. Its spread to mammals, including dairy cows in the United States, has raised concerns among governments about a risk of human transmission.

The outbreak killed almost the entire flock of 6,895 turkeys, with the 10 surviving birds slaughtered as a precaution, the report said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil down 0.42.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, down 25 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal down $1.40; Soyoil up 2.42.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.2% in SRW, down 5.9% in HRW, down 0.4% in HRS; Corn is down 11.5%; Soybeans up 2.0%; Soymeal down 11.2%; Soyoil up 39.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 22 yuan; Soymeal up 16; Soyoil down 6; Palm oil up 62; Corn up 14 — Malaysian Palm is down 89.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 89 ringgit (-2.06%) at 4226.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, down 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans up 20 1/4; Soymeal up $6.00; Soyoil up 1.06.

There were changes in registrations (-83 Soyoil). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 780 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 18 were: SRW Wheat down 282 contracts, HRW Wheat down 369, Corn up 10,834, Soybeans up 1,214, Soymeal down 582, Soyoil down 1,048.

 

HOT WEATHER COULD PREVAIL ACROSS EUROPE AND PARTS OF THE BLACK SEA REGION IN AUGUST

What to Watch:

• High confidence of hot weather across Europe next month
• Mixed precipitation pattern expected

 

WIDESPREAD WARMTH COULD PREVAIL NEXT MONTH ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Blanketed warmth expected across South America in August
• Largely mixed precipitation pattern next month

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers went through over the weekend with some areas of severe weather and heavy rain. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region this week and probably next week as well. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expectd for going into early August.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers moved through the Central Plains over the weekend while temperatures increased across the south. This may be the case for much of the week, as disturbances move through the north while the south gets largely hot and dry. A ridge in the region will strengthen this weekend and may push these disturbances northward. Though some isolated showers may form in the High Plains, this would generally cause hotter and drier conditions going into August that may start to have an impact on corn and soybeans.

Midwest: Scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain moved through over the weekend. That included northern Indiana, which had been too dry. A front will slowly move through the region again this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms, especially to the northwest. The front could stall in the southeast this weekend with showers continuing there. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week. Overall, conditions continue to be quite favorable, though a burst of heat ahead of the front this week could stress some of the smaller areas that are still dry. There aren’t many of them, though.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers went through over the weekend and likely continue for much of the week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. Another small disturbance moving through the Gulf of America this week could become tropical before moving into the region later this week, which could increase the rainfall across the south. PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Hot and dry weather has increased drought conditions over much of the region. Though temperatures are not extremely hot this week, we could see them increasing next week. Some small disturbances could bring some showers through the region this week, but that would not be of much help. It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

Canadian Prairies: Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, which were more consistent in Alberta and Saskatchewan than forecast, but much weaker in Manitoba as forecast and where conditions are still drier. However, the pattern is very active and almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others.

Europe: A system moved into western Europe this weekend with widespread rainfall. Additional showers will continue there the next few days before spreading to the east as well. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures should also trend milder going into the weekend.

Black Sea: A system moved through over the weekend, but focused rainfall largely across the north, with lesser amounts or none for drier areas in the southeast. That largely continues this week as well, favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs some rain.

 

The player sheet for 7/18 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 12,500 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 8,000 soyoil. 

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

China’s June soybean imports from Brazil climb 9% from the prior year

China’s soybean imports from Brazil in June climbed by 9.2% from a year earlier, customs data showed on Sunday, driven by a strong harvest and the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war, while supplies from the United States rose 21%.

The world’s biggest soybean buyer imported 10.62 million metric tons of the oilseed from Brazil last month, or 86.6% of the total imports, compared with 9.72 million tons a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

June arrivals from the U.S. reached 1.58 million tons, or about 12.9% of the total for the month, up from 1.31 million tons a year earlier.

China’s soybean imports hit the highest level ever for the month of June to 12.26 million metric tons.

“The year-on-year increase in June imports mainly reflects a lag from April caused by slow customs clearance, while the growth from January to June is driven by Brazil’s bumper 2024/25 soybean harvest,” said Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.

For January-June, China’s imports from Brazil totalled 31.86 million tons, down 7.5% compared with the same period last year.

Total arrivals from the U.S. in the first half of the year came to 16.15 million tons, up 33% on the prior year, the data showed.

China’s soybean arrivals are likely to stay elevated in the third quarter, while fourth-quarter imports will hinge on the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks, traders and analysts have said.

Soymeal inventories have surged amid an influx of South American beans and sluggish demand, Liu said.

“Due to the short storage window of South American soybeans, crushers have sustained high operating rates. While soybean meal production has accelerated, downstream demand has slowed, resulting in a ‘just-in-time’ purchasing pattern and a rapid build-up of soybean meal inventories.”

China imported 111,603 tons of soybeans from Argentina in the half of the year, down 47.5% from the same period last year, though the data showed no arrivals in June.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Downward trend is interrupted in some areas

Cepea, 18 – The downward trend for corn prices has been interrupted in some regions surveyed by Cepea this week, due to the fact that part of sellers is away from closing trades. The harvesting of the second crop has been progressing, but the pace of activities is still slower compared to the last season and to the previous crops. Moreover, the increase of freight values also prevents new price drops in the domestic market.

However, purchasers are also away from closing deals, since they are focused on estimates that indicate a record crop in Brazil and on the slow pace of exports. Thus, liquidity is low.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) decreased only 0.1% between and July 10 and 17, closing at BRL 62.93 per 60-kilo bag on July 17. In the partial of the month, however, the Index has dropped 6%, but the monthly average (up to July 17) is 11% above that in July/24, in nominal terms.

Among regions, price rises were observed in some areas, such as Sorriso (Mato Grosso) and Rio Verde (Goiás), of 5% and 2%, respectively, between July 10 and 17. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values upped 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.6% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Demand boosts soy oil prices abroad

The international price of soybean oil rose this week and hit the highest level since October/23. The increase is attributed to the firm demand for the product from the United States.

In Brazil, soy oil quotations also moved up, influenced by increases abroad. Moreover, the domestic demand for the byproduct to produce biodiesel is expected to increase. It is worth noting that the increase of “retenciones” in Argentina tends to redirect importers of byproducts to the United States and to Brazil.

The report released by the USDA on July 11 indicate that the global production of soybean oil is expected to reach 71.06 million tons in the 2025/26 crop, upping 3.9% in relation to 2024/25 (68.36 million tons). The world consumption is projected by the USDA at the record of 70.02 million tons, 4.5% more than in the current crop – from the total global consumption, 76% may be allocated to the food sector and 23.8%, to the biodiesel sector.

In the United States, specifically, the soybean oil consumption is forecast by the USDA at 13.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season, for an increase of 10.5% compared to the current crop (12.11 million tons).

As for Brazil, the domestic consumption is estimated at 10.45 million tons in 2025/26, a record, and 3.4% more than the 10.11 million tons projected for this crop (which ends in September/25).

The Brazilian value of soy oil increased 2.3% between July 10 and 17, at BRL 6.633.86 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on July 17.

 

Paraguayan soybean exports fall in the first half of 2025

Soybean exports in Paraguay, one of the main products sold abroad in the South American country, registered a drop of 1.3 million tons between January and June 2025, which represented a decrease of $659.5 million in foreign currency income, compared to the same semester of last year, local media reported this Saturday.

From January to June, Paraguay exported 4,106,112 million tons of soybeans, while in the first half of last year 5,478,584 million tons were shipped, said the newspaper Última Hora, citing a foreign trade report by the Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters and Traders of Grains and Oilseeds (Capeco).

During the first semester of 2025, grain exports generated $1,506 million, while in the same period of 2024, $2,166 million came in.

“The lower volume shipped and the drop in the international price of the grain” had an impact on these results, the information added.

Capeco also recorded decreases in total revenues from soybean, soybean oil and pallets exports for $691 million in the period in question.

According to the newspaper, Capeco’s Foreign Trade advisor, Sonia Tomassone, said that soybean oil exports had “a positive performance” due to the greater industrialization and the improvement in the international prices of the derivative.

The main destination of Paraguayan soybeans is Argentina, with 84 % of participation; followed by Brazil, with 9 %; Russia, with 2 % and Peru, the United States, Uruguay, Senegal, South Korea and Chile, which together account for 5 % of shipments.

Last January, Capeco reported that soybean production exceeded 11 million tons for the first time in the 2023-2024 harvest, but forecast a lower result for 2025 due to the possible impact of drought on these crops.

Paraguay’s trade balance recorded a deficit of $697.9 million in the first half of this year, compared to the $469 million surplus recorded in the same period of 2024, according to the June 2025 Foreign Trade Report.

Exports amounted to $7,830 million between January and June, 7.6% less than the $8,472.4 million accumulated in the same period of the previous year, the issuer added.

 

Iraq’s strategic reserves of wheat sufficient for one year and four months, Iraqi official says

Iraq’s strategic reserves of wheat are sufficient for one year and four months, Haider Nouri, director general of Iraq’s grain board told Reuters on Sunday.

 

Bangladesh Signs Deal to Import 700,000 Tons of US Wheat a Year

Bangladesh has signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. Wheat Associates to import 700,000 tons of wheat a year over five years to “boost bilateral trade cooperation,” the food ministry in Dhaka said in a statement.

Wheat will be purchased at “competitive prices,” according to the statement

 

Global soybean market sentiment remains bearish amid ample supplies

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 SOYBEAN MARKET OUTLOOK – JULY 2025

Soybean prices have been largely stagnant/slightly declining over the past few weeks reflecting relatively quiet market sentiment in late June/early July, despite a few major report releases. Both USDA’s Acreage (released on 30 June) and WASDE reports (released on 11 July) showed only a fractional downward adjustment to the U.S. acreage/production estimates, not enough to ignite any meaningful bullish momentum. As the U.S. crops move through their prime growth period amid better than initially anticipated conditions, the overall bearish market sentiment will likely continue to prevail, though a hot and dry weather in the forecast for late July/early August could affect the dynamics.

The near-term direction of the market will likely continue to be driven by the overall soil moisture status and weather outlooks across the U.S. central Soy Belt. Better than expected early season conditions so far have led to high condition scores/ vegetation index values, but uncertainties remain as unfavorable weather is in the forecast through early August.

The long-term direction of the market will likely be dictated by the demand-side dynamics overall, mostly attributed to the U.S.-China trade relationships and any potential changes in their future tariff plans.

 

Favorable US weather conditions bolster global corn supplies, but drought concerns grow in Europe

2025/26 CORN MARKET OUTLOOK – July 2025

Favorable weather and optimal crop conditions have boosted US corn production prospects. Alongside production gains in Brazil, global corn supplies have improved, leading to Chicago corn futures falling to their lowest level in nine months.

US corn exports remain stronger than usual in June and early July, attributed to initial harvest delays and slow shipping pace in Brazil, as well as a weak US dollar.

Much of the EU and Black Sea have been affected by severe drought, as evidenced by near-record or record low vegetation densities (NDVIs), posing considerable risk to corn production. Corn prices in the region rose amid mounting drought concerns.

The global corn supply is estimated to rise in 2025/26, but consumption is expected to grow faster, leading to a further decrease in ending stocks compared to 2024/25. In addition, global corn trade in 2025/26 may be influenced by US tariff disputes with its trade partners and the results of related trade negotiation.

 

Black Sea Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Rises 9.38%

Nitrogen fertilizer, represented by Black Sea urea, rose 9.38% to $443 per metric ton in the week ended July 18, according to Green Markets data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

• Black Sea urea rose 25.7% during the last month and was up 28.4% during the last 3 months
• Major Urea nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Major UAN nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Major Ammonia nitrogen benchmark prices were unchanged
• Natural gas, which drives producer costs, has increased 8.1% during the last week and was down 12% during the last month
• The price of corn, a driver of fertilizer purchases, increased 4.1% during the last week and was down 3.3% during the last month

 

 

 

 

 

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